eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,600
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Post by eppinggas on Oct 4, 2022 9:22:25 GMT
Kherson is now the centre of attention. Ukraine now have the initiative. They decide when and where they attack. The Russians can only respond. It now looks as though wherever Ukraine apply pressure, the Russians crack. If Kherson falls the Russians could be looking at losing 20,000+ troops. If that happens then the Crimea will fall to the Ukranians as well. Russia has lost this war. The only thing to decide is how long this will drag out and how many people will die. Thanks for your updates and insight Nobby. You've called all this all remarkably well.
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bluetornados
Predictions League
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 15,738
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Post by bluetornados on Oct 4, 2022 9:47:11 GMT
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 4, 2022 13:22:23 GMT
My post from Sep 16th.........
"Reports indicate that over the last few months the Ukrainians have managed to put together three full divisions. One of those divisions headed the offensive around Kherson. The second had spectacular success in the North East......the third has yet to be deployed. Where are they? My money is a central drive to retake Mariupol and Melitopol and break the land bridge between the Crimea and Russia. If this were to happen we'd see half the Russian army cut off from their supply route. Now, that would be interesting."
This is still my preferred option as it will leave Kherson untenable for the Russians.
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 4, 2022 21:25:21 GMT
Kherson area. The Russian northern defence has collapsed. The odd pocket where the Russians show resistance are just by-passed and isolated. Some estimates said Kherson could fall in the next six weeks. It's looking as though it could fall by this weekend!
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Cheshiregas
Global Moderator
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 2,978
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Post by Cheshiregas on Oct 5, 2022 7:53:17 GMT
Nobby, heard the following reported - Russian soldiers by the thousand are now making use of the Ukrainian State "Hochu Zhit" program that provides them with a secure phone number and instructions on how to safely surrender. Yesterday it was the busiest day ever for the scheme. Are you hearing the same? Not sure how they would get access or be able to call so not sure if it falls into disinformation category. But I bet those recent conscripts will not be happy if seasoned troops are failing and dying.
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
Posts: 7,516
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Ukraine
Oct 5, 2022 8:54:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Oct 5, 2022 8:54:39 GMT
Anybody else see the horror in Lyman? A community of circa 20,000 before the invasion completely devastated, like some dystopian future film. Can there be any victors in this war? Quite probably the biggest winner will be the American Military Industrial complex, once again they appear to have proven their superiority. I know nothing about weaponry or tactics of war and killing people, thankfully. But I find it completely devastating that this stuff is still going on, it is so depressing. My first exposure to American military might was in Iran, 1973. I was shocked to discover there were over 50,000 American nationals in that country, the military presence so large they had there own TV and Radio to stations. Last week weekend I picked up a copy of the book "Salvador" by Joan Didion, written in 1982. By the end of that year I was resident in the US and became fully acquainted with the use of military might to suppress local populations in South America, through military proxies.
This is all so depressing.
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 5, 2022 9:06:32 GMT
Nobby, heard the following reported - Russian soldiers by the thousand are now making use of the Ukrainian State "Hochu Zhit" program that provides them with a secure phone number and instructions on how to safely surrender. Yesterday it was the busiest day ever for the scheme.Are you hearing the same? Not sure how they would get access or be able to call so not sure if it falls into disinformation category. But I bet those recent conscripts will not be happy if seasoned troops are failing and dying. First off, I'd just like to say what a magnificent job the Ukrainians are doing. I cannot praise them highly enough. But the work the US and the UK are doing will be pretty revealing once this is all over. They have both utilized their full spectrum of background intelligence work to help the Ukes. There is no doubt that they are feeding the Ukes with every scrap on Intel they get. One of the most interesting things was right at the very start, or in fact before it started. The US/UK were telling everyone it was going to happen. Right up until the last minute even the Ukes refused to believe them. Nobody did. The US/UK even knew when it was going to start and when they issued the date there must have been panic in the upper echlons of the Russian command, as in reality it started about a week later. This was a clear message to the Russians that we had somehow penetrated them. It was actually an attempt to get them to stop ie. "look, we know when you will attack, we know where you will attack, we know your plans!" But as we know the Russians carried on regardless. However, I bet it resulted in some form of mini purge around the Kremlin as whoever was leaking stuff was hunted. Next, google "Rivet Joint". This is another major project at information gathering. Once again I'm pretty sure that most of what is intercepted is going to the Ukes. I know for a fact that if you see the number plate of any Russian military vehicle, then the intelligence bods can identify which unit it belongs to. This is important for identifying which units are where on the battlefield. In fact, this is open source information if you know where to look. Then there is the satellite coverage. We have seen the satellite photos from small commercial companies. Remember that long column of Russian vehicles heading for Kyiv? If a small commercial company can produce that from a satellite the size of a shoebox then you have to wonder just what the military have up there and what are the capabilities! There is a lot more but I will not talk about it on here. So, to answer your question, yes. Psyops is a vital part of any war, especially in this digital age.
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 5, 2022 9:11:04 GMT
Anybody else see the horror in Lyman? A community of circa 20,000 before the invasion completely devastated, like some dystopian future film. Can there be any victors in this war? Quite probably the biggest winner will be the American Military Industrial complex, once again they appear to have proven their superiority. I know nothing about weaponry or tactics of war and killing people, thankfully. But I find it completely devastating that this stuff is still going on, it is so depressing. My first exposure to American military might was in Iran, 1973. I was shocked to discover there were over 50,000 American nationals in that country, the military presence so large they had there own TV and Radio to stations. Last week weekend I picked up a copy of the book "Salvador" by Joan Didion, written in 1982. By the end of that year I was resident in the US and became fully acquainted with the use of military might to suppress local populations in South America, through military proxies. This is all so depressing. Yes, it is depressing. However, this time you cannot lay the blame on the US.
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bluetornados
Predictions League
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 15,738
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Post by bluetornados on Oct 6, 2022 7:54:07 GMT
Ukraine apartment buildings hit by missile attacks
Summary
Missiles hit residential buildings before dawn in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia - the capital of a region illegally annexed by Russia.
At least two people were killed, and others remain trapped under rubble, the regional governor says; Russia has not commented.
At least three further explosions have been heard by our correspondent in the city.
The attacks come after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he expected the situation to "stabilise" in Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky says Ukraine's counter-offensive is continuing to gain ground, stating that Kyiv had taken back more villages.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss will join other leaders in Prague today for the first meeting of a new European "club of nations".
Russia is not invited to the event - at which Zelensky is expected to give an opening video address.
Stay in shelters, urges Zaporizhzhia governor
The Zaporizhzhia governor has urged residents of the region's capital city to stay in shelters - posting on Telegram to announce "another enemy missile attack".
Oleksandr Starukh earlier warned of the possibility of repeat strikes following blasts before dawn which he says killed at least two people.
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Post by lostinspace on Oct 8, 2022 7:41:55 GMT
reports that a train explosion on the crimea gateway has caused damage to the train track and also damaged the road bridge itself making it unusable, pictures show two sections of the bridge[either side of a support pillar ] lying in the water ....."ruskies say it was a train fire" .....Ukraine has not commented to say if it was anything to do with them
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
Posts: 7,516
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Ukraine
Oct 8, 2022 8:27:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Oct 8, 2022 8:27:33 GMT
reports that a train explosion on the crimea gateway has caused damage to the train track and also damaged the road bridge itself making it unusable, pictures show two sections of the bridge[either side of a support pillar ] lying in the water ....."ruskies say it was a train fire" .....Ukraine has not commented to say if it was anything to do with them Just watched a video of that. Quite something.
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Post by lostinspace on Oct 8, 2022 13:27:41 GMT
you have to admire their wit and humour in these very difficult time ....... one of the largest banks in Ukraine has ... to honour the events at the bridge...issued a new bank card with a picture depicting the damage to the bridge on it ... so funny
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
Posts: 7,516
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Ukraine
Oct 8, 2022 14:56:53 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Oct 8, 2022 14:56:53 GMT
you have to admire their wit and humour in these very difficult time ....... one of the largest banks in Ukraine has ... to honour the events at the bridge...issued a new bank card with a picture depicting the damage to the bridge on itΒ ... so funny πππ That's brilliant
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 8, 2022 16:24:46 GMT
reports that a train explosion on the crimea gateway has caused damage to the train track and also damaged the road bridge itself making it unusable, pictures show two sections of the bridge[either side of a support pillar ] lying in the water ....."ruskies say it was a train fire" .....Ukraine has not commented to say if it was anything to do with them Did the bridge somehow manage to fall out of a window?
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
Posts: 7,516
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Ukraine
Oct 8, 2022 17:41:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Oct 8, 2022 17:41:47 GMT
reports that a train explosion on the crimea gateway has caused damage to the train track and also damaged the road bridge itself making it unusable, pictures show two sections of the bridge[either side of a support pillar ] lying in the water ....."ruskies say it was a train fire" .....Ukraine has not commented to say if it was anything to do with them Did the bridge somehow manage to fall out of a window? ππ
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Cheshiregas
Global Moderator
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 2,978
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Post by Cheshiregas on Oct 10, 2022 17:59:17 GMT
reports that a train explosion on the crimea gateway has caused damage to the train track and also damaged the road bridge itself making it unusable, pictures show two sections of the bridge[either side of a support pillar ] lying in the water ....."ruskies say it was a train fire" .....Ukraine has not commented to say if it was anything to do with them Did the bridge somehow manage to fall out of a window? Its interesting that Putin's response to one of his pet projects, that he boasts about, being damaged is to hit civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere intentionally and threaten to do the same around the rest of the country. The blitzkrieg bombing of civilian buildings in the areas they have captured mimics their actions in Syria. It begs the question 'why would you want to rule an area that you have simply razed to the ground and is almost unliveable'. For someone who claims to be liberating land yet crushes it into the ground is definitely odd. And now we have the strategist of that kind of military attack thinking in charge - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-war
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 10, 2022 18:50:20 GMT
Did the bridge somehow manage to fall out of a window? Its interesting that Putin's response to one of his pet projects, that he boasts about, being damaged is to hit civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere intentionally and threaten to do the same around the rest of the country. The blitzkrieg bombing of civilian buildings in the areas they have captured mimics their actions in Syria. It begs the question 'why would you want to rule an area that you have simply razed to the ground and is almost unliveable'. For someone who claims to be liberating land yet crushes it into the ground is definitely odd. And now we have the strategist of that kind of military attack thinking in charge - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-warIt's the Russian mindset I'm afraid. They can threaten, arrest or kill their own people so why can't they do the same to anyone else? Don't forget that it was Putin who ordered the bombing of the apartment blocks in Moscow and used it as a prelude to the war in Chechnya. If he's prepared to that to his own people......... His troops are under pressure and slowly falling back. They need all the help they can get, but then Russia wastes 81 expensive missiles on pointless targets in civilian areas which a/ provide no help for their troops, and b/ actually toughens the resistance of the Ukrainian people. It makes no sense, but then again not much the Russians do make any sense. Expect more Uke success soon. The pattern is that they make a breakthrough, exploit it to the max, and then take the time to consolidate, restock, refresh and reinforce ready for the next move. They are very careful not to overextend themselves which will leave them vulnerable to a counter-attack. During this lull period, they tend to 'shape the battlefield' and this appears to be what they are doing now. Multiple Russian ammunition dumps/warehouses/train stations have been hit in the last five days. This will disrupt the already poor Russian logistics system. The Ukes do not want a slow drawn out conflict with both sides slogging it out. If that were to happen, Russia would win. They need to remain dynamic, agile and swift, but they know that.
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
Posts: 7,516
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Ukraine
Oct 10, 2022 20:20:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Oct 10, 2022 20:20:30 GMT
Its interesting that Putin's response to one of his pet projects, that he boasts about, being damaged is to hit civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere intentionally and threaten to do the same around the rest of the country. The blitzkrieg bombing of civilian buildings in the areas they have captured mimics their actions in Syria. It begs the question 'why would you want to rule an area that you have simply razed to the ground and is almost unliveable'. For someone who claims to be liberating land yet crushes it into the ground is definitely odd. And now we have the strategist of that kind of military attack thinking in charge - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-warIt's the Russian mindset I'm afraid. They can threaten, arrest or kill their own people so why can't they do the same to anyone else? Don't forget that it was Putin who ordered the bombing of the apartment blocks in Moscow and used it as a prelude to the war in Chechnya. If he's prepared to that to his own people......... His troops are under pressure and slowly falling back. They need all the help they can get, but then Russia wastes 81 expensive missiles on pointless targets in civilian areas which a/ provide no help for their troops, and b/ actually toughens the resistance of the Ukrainian people. It makes no sense, but then again not much the Russians do make any sense. Expect more Uke success soon. The pattern is that they make a breakthrough, exploit it to the max, and then take the time to consolidate, restock, refresh and reinforce ready for the next move. They are very careful not to overextend themselves which will leave them vulnerable to a counter-attack. During this lull period, they tend to 'shape the battlefield' and this appears to be what they are doing now. Multiple Russian ammunition dumps/warehouses/train stations have been hit in the last five days. This will disrupt the already poor Russian logistics system. The Ukes do not want a slow drawn out conflict with both sides slogging it out. If that were to happen, Russia would win. They need to remain dynamic, agile and swift, but they know that. Nobby Are there any effective air defence systems against missile attacks?
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 11, 2022 5:56:10 GMT
It's the Russian mindset I'm afraid. They can threaten, arrest or kill their own people so why can't they do the same to anyone else? Don't forget that it was Putin who ordered the bombing of the apartment blocks in Moscow and used it as a prelude to the war in Chechnya. If he's prepared to that to his own people......... His troops are under pressure and slowly falling back. They need all the help they can get, but then Russia wastes 81 expensive missiles on pointless targets in civilian areas which a/ provide no help for their troops, and b/ actually toughens the resistance of the Ukrainian people. It makes no sense, but then again not much the Russians do make any sense. Expect more Uke success soon. The pattern is that they make a breakthrough, exploit it to the max, and then take the time to consolidate, restock, refresh and reinforce ready for the next move. They are very careful not to overextend themselves which will leave them vulnerable to a counter-attack. During this lull period, they tend to 'shape the battlefield' and this appears to be what they are doing now. Multiple Russian ammunition dumps/warehouses/train stations have been hit in the last five days. This will disrupt the already poor Russian logistics system. The Ukes do not want a slow drawn out conflict with both sides slogging it out. If that were to happen, Russia would win. They need to remain dynamic, agile and swift, but they know that. Nobby Are there any effective air defence systems against missile attacks? Yes there are. Unfortunately it is one of the weapons systems that is not being sent to the Ukrainians. There are some systems, like the German Gepard, that has been supplied but only 15 units have been sent. There is a reluctance by the West to send the top range kit. My opinion is that the politicians want to degrade the Russian military, but they are fearful of humiliating Russia. They want Russia to lose, but not too badly as the fear of going nuclear hangs over everyone. With that in mind most of the kit sent tends to be older stuff. Cruise missiles are sub-sonic. They are not that quick and fly low. With enough of the right equipment it can be quite easy to intercept them.
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 11, 2022 6:00:44 GMT
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