Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread | Bristol Rovers F. C.

mangogas15

Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,604

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 12:15:33 GMT via Tapatalk

Post by mangogas15 on Feb 7, 2021 12:15:33 GMT

Feb 7, 2021 11:55:16 GMT Delsy said:

Somehow we are going to have to eek out another 26 points from the remaining games of this season and with just the solitary attempt on target in yesterday’s encounter it might prove to be a tough ask.

Average to stay up 53 pts last 10 years

emperorsuperbus

nil desperandum

Joined: August 2018
Posts: 3,041

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 12:17:22 GMT outwoodgas likes this

Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 7, 2021 12:17:22 GMT

Feb 6, 2021 23:35:05 GMT warehamgas said:

Feb 6, 2021 15:58:13 GMT emperorsuperbus said:

I am going to say something provocative. Baldwin is growing on me. He’s okaying defensively, but has an offensive side to his game. Harries was supposed to be the ball playing defender not Baldwin? Why play a deep lying playmaker if a centre back can give you that? Some of his passing is Kaiseresque which almost certainly isn’t’ a word outside a football forum. I would like to see him step out of defence with ball more and try some surging runs.

Not provocative, I agree. I’ve always thought Baldwin is the best of our CHs. He’ll occasionally bring the ball out and try and thread a pass through to the forwards which goes wrong but overall I think he’s ok. Has certainly been better than Harries and Ehmer and usually Kilgour so far. And more to the point we look better with him in the side.
UTG!

edit: Sorry outwood, posted before I saw that you’d said almost exactly the same.

no need to apologise for voicing agreement.

maybe if playing three at back it means playing one less creative like deep lying playmaker, so needs someone to step out of the five man defence with a ball carrying run or with time on ball look up for long pass into channel , finding run or switch play.

eppinggas
Administrator

Ian Alexander

Don't care

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Posts: 8,600

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 14:05:30 GMT mangogas15 likes this

Post by eppinggas on Feb 7, 2021 14:05:30 GMT

Feb 7, 2021 12:15:33 GMT mangogas15 said:

Feb 7, 2021 11:55:16 GMT Delsy said:

Somehow we are going to have to eek out another 26 points from the remaining games of this season and with just the solitary attempt on target in yesterday’s encounter it might prove to be a tough ask.

Average to stay up 53 pts last 10 years

Pedant alert:
gasheads.org/thread/8040/10-year-relegation-stats-league
Posted Feb 1st 2019... (so does not include data for the 2018-19 season, or the curtailed 2019-2020 season).

"The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2
The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference)
The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018).
The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall).
The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012.
51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011).
50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation.
49 and it's not looking good.
48 and below - very probably League 2 football.
We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game.
We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game.
UTG".

We finished with 54 points. Plymouth went down with 50 points (on goal difference) in 21st place. Southend/Wimbledon both survived on 50.
So a third of the Clubs on 50 points went down. Stats eh?

Last Edit: Feb 7, 2021 14:13:34 GMT by eppinggas

phil74

Joined: October 2018
Posts: 354

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 14:28:06 GMT

Post by phil74 on Feb 7, 2021 14:28:06 GMT

5th May 1990: The season ended at the seaside in gloriously early summer sunshine and warmth. Our trip to Blackpool yielded a superb 3 - 0 win that also clinched the old Division 3 title from under the noses of our nearest rivals. (I can't remember their names).

8th May 2021: 31 years later - almost to the day - the Gas secure their place for another season in League One against mid-table Blackpool, whose lacklustre display suggests their team is already on the beach... Dare we dream? As final day fixtures go, it's not the worst in the world. Wimbledon are away at Lincoln; Burton go to Oxford; Northampton are at Sunderland; and there's the delicious prospect of Wigan v Swindon - where you just know a late goal will send one of them down.

emperorsuperbus

nil desperandum

Joined: August 2018
Posts: 3,041

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 14:30:21 GMT

Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 7, 2021 14:30:21 GMT

Feb 7, 2021 14:05:30 GMT eppinggas said:

Feb 7, 2021 12:15:33 GMT mangogas15 said:

Average to stay up 53 pts last 10 years

Pedant alert:
gasheads.org/thread/8040/10-year-relegation-stats-league
Posted Feb 1st 2019... (so does not include data for the 2018-19 season, or the curtailed 2019-2020 season).

"The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2
The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference)
The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018).
The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall).
The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012.
51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011).
50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation.
49 and it's not looking good.
48 and below - very probably League 2 football.
We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game.
We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game.
UTG".

We finished with 54 points. Plymouth went down with 50 points (on goal difference) in 21st place. Southend/Wimbledon both survived on 50.
So a third of the Clubs on 50 points went down. Stats eh?

as this is the match day thread getting ripe for archive, the “how many points to stay up and what’s the route to getting them” needs its own thread, Epps?

bluetornados
Predictions League

Joined: June 2014
Posts: 15,738

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 15:17:38 GMT

Post by bluetornados on Feb 7, 2021 15:17:38 GMT

Feb 6, 2021 20:58:06 GMT harrybuckle said:

Feb 6, 2021 19:12:39 GMT bluetornados said:

Well done, you got the score dead right and Daly got 73 mins of game time -

I too got the score right and predicted Every Liddle helps too

With five of our next six matches at the Mem starting with our former snake and Oxford and our appalling home record I am still worried at the points return. Swindle and Wigan are must wins like Rochdale so we shall see. Need that the flying Fin might be back in the next month is welcome news. Tisdale said post match this where we are he clearly has told his squad their career at Rovers is on the line and he realises his own future hangs in the balance come May.

February and March are big months for them all and us fans of course. Decisions on season ticket renewals will be considered in March and I feel the enforced absence will not encourage all to renew.

Well done to you also HB, now what are this week's lotto numbers ?

mangogas15

Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,604

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 16:09:09 GMT via Tapatalk

Post by mangogas15 on Feb 7, 2021 16:09:09 GMT

Feb 7, 2021 14:05:30 GMT eppinggas said:

Feb 7, 2021 12:15:33 GMT mangogas15 said:

Average to stay up 53 pts last 10 years

Pedant alert:
gasheads.org/thread/8040/10-year-relegation-stats-league
Posted Feb 1st 2019... (so does not include data for the 2018-19 season, or the curtailed 2019-2020 season).

"The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2
The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference)
The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018).
The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall).
The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012.
51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011).
50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation.
49 and it's not looking good.
48 and below - very probably League 2 football.
We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game.
We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game.
UTG".

We finished with 54 points. Plymouth went down with 50 points (on goal difference) in 21st place. Southend/Wimbledon both survived on 50.
So a third of the Clubs on 50 points went down. Stats eh?

😆

eppinggas
Administrator

Ian Alexander

Don't care

Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,600

Fleetwood "we must not lose" matchday thread Feb 7, 2021 17:05:49 GMT

Post by eppinggas on Feb 7, 2021 17:05:49 GMT

Feb 7, 2021 14:30:21 GMT emperorsuperbus said:

Feb 7, 2021 14:05:30 GMT eppinggas said:

Pedant alert:
gasheads.org/thread/8040/10-year-relegation-stats-league
Posted Feb 1st 2019... (so does not include data for the 2018-19 season, or the curtailed 2019-2020 season).

"The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2
The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference)
The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018).
The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall).
The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012.
51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011).
50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation.
49 and it's not looking good.
48 and below - very probably League 2 football.
We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game.
We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game.
UTG".

We finished with 54 points. Plymouth went down with 50 points (on goal difference) in 21st place. Southend/Wimbledon both survived on 50.
So a third of the Clubs on 50 points went down. Stats eh?

as this is the match day thread getting ripe for archive, the “how many points to stay up and what’s the route to getting them” needs its own thread, Epps?

Sounds reasonable.
I've got an excel spreadsheet (somewhere) and I'm not afraid to use it... I'll update the stats and open another thread...