Ashes predictions

Well Clarke has taken pity on us and declined to enforce the follow on, which I personally think is a mistake. Even though we fell short of saving ourselves, I think 312 is a fair recovery from 30/4. If we bat sensibly in the 2nd innings we have a chance of saving it, just not a very big one.

I'm going to be hyper trendy and say I don't really understand why the follow on has now fallen so out of fashion that even in these circumstances it's hardly ever enforced.  In fact the only time it's ever enforced these days is when there's a ludicrous mismatch and the dominant team can envisage 2 days on the golf course.

Yes, OK it is a valid argument to say that you rest your seamers and deny the opposition a potential route back into the game.  But in truth it's really unlikely that most teams are going to have sufficient time to genuinely turn the tables - it's based on a couple of quite freak results.  The resting argument is better but in a scenario in which you need to take 10 wickets on a very unhelpful track all you are really doing is creating some dead sessions of cricket that don't really help you get any closer to achieving this.  I'm not saying that you should always enforce the follow on - just that I find it odd that is now almost an article of faith never to do so.

England are basically completely out of this - our attack is going to get flayed.  If I was England I'd either not bother bowling our front line seamers or have them bowl at half pace (another thing that you used to see regularly but don't anymore - a function of fewer championship games so the concept of the 'short run up' to conserve energy has gone).  What do we have to gain? The difference is whether we'll be chasing 500 or 600 - either way it matters not.  I don't think there's much we can realistically do to control scoring rate at this stage either.

I'm confident this will be draw though.  It's been a pretty awful game to be honest because bowling has looked so toothless on this wicket.  The only time it got interesting was when England wilted under the pressure - I don't think we'll do that a second time and if we do heads should probably roll.  312 is a fair recovery from 30/4 but the fact we were able to to so pretty easily suggests that saving this game should be very doable.  It wasn't like there was an Aussie bowler who was a consistent threat.  They bowled better than we did but most of our wickets were lapses of concentration and poor decision making rather than being done by unplayable deliveries.  There's rarely going to be a more friendly wicket for the challenge of batting our 5 sessions to save a match.  That's why I'm surprised they didn't enforce the follow on because that imposes another pressure - you need to do more than survive, you need to score in order to make survival easier; that gets players in 2 minds.  In this scenario England just need to survive.  Not neccessarily easy but definitely doable.

Only 500 needed.

I hope Chris Rogers is OK.

I think the important thing is not to overreact to this defeat. These players were good enough last week, Aus were much better this week.

Winning the toss had a disproportionate effect on the game, but take nothing away from their bowlers, and Smith and Rogers, who have been superb. Ours haven't. That's all.

I'm not sure you can significantly alter the characteristics of a pitch a few days before a game. I expect the message went out weeks ago.

The problem England have is that the obvious options in county cricket bat in the lower middle order. Bairstow is the obvious option as he's had a great season and Taylor seems to be rediscovering a bit of form too.

They could move Root up the order and leave out either Bell or Ballance. I think they'll give them another test to turn it around though. The opener is also an issue. This highlights the stupidity of opening with Trott in the Caribbean. If Lyth had played those three tests we'd have a much better idea of whether he was up to it. If they wanted to play Trott they could have rested Bell.

if Lyth doesn't make it I have no idea what they'll do. Hayles big score this season came at 3, Compton has also been batting at 3 and has had more success at 3 in the past than he has opening, Carberry has had an average season and is also batting at 3 and Chopra and Lees have had poor a season. Mark Stoneman would be an outside bet. Not great stats but he does bat at Durham which is tough. He's not going to have the Australians worried though.

I'm not sure we have a lot of choice other than the stick with the same 11 and hope they can sort it out.

Can't cop a mauling like this and not expect changes.
Lyth looks out of his depth, Ballance is a cheap wicket and Bell is fine if he's coming in at 220-2 but he lacks the fight if it's 20-2 when he comes in.
Maybe play the women's team in the 3rd test...they have no bo11ocks either.

What a humiliation. Mitchell Johnson has a vice like grip over England, even on a supposedly flat wicket such as this.

Well there is a certain someone with a proven track record of scoring test runs for England currently sitting on a beach in Miami......

(Tin hat on.)

James Taylor chose an interesting time to run up a massive 100.  I know he doesn't get much support these days but I didn't think he did much wrong as a Test player in a difficult situation.