eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on May 23, 2024 8:32:24 GMT
What's the difference between a gamble and an investment?
The former tends to be 'gut instinct', the latter is based more on data interrogation and analysis.
So plenty of work to be done at constituency level - using data from the Brexit vote, 2017 and 2019 General Elections.
Obviously it's a Labour landslide and equally obviously a Labour Majority. No value to be had there.
Where else is there value?
I only have two outstanding investments:
Tories to lose over 200 seats @ 13/8 (now 4/9)
Reform to poll over 9% @ 6/5 (now Reform to poll over 9.5% Evens).
Will be interesting to see if opinion polls show with regard to Reform. The last 6 polls have them at 12, 8, 12, 12, 9, 11. (av 10.7%). Slightly lower than a month or so ago.
There should be value at Constituency level when they come out.
Updates to follow.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on May 23, 2024 8:46:26 GMT
Is promoting gambling an acceptable enterprise on this forum?
Asking for a friend
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Post by Nobbygas on May 23, 2024 9:20:52 GMT
Is promoting gambling an acceptable enterprise on this forum? Asking for a friend I'll give you 5-1 that it's not for a friend ! |
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Post by Nobbygas on May 23, 2024 9:23:55 GMT
What's the difference between a gamble and an investment? The former tends to be 'gut instinct', the latter is based more on data interrogation and analysis. So plenty of work to be done at constituency level - using data from the Brexit vote, 2017 and 2019 General Elections. Obviously it's a Labour landslide and equally obviously a Labour Majority. No value to be had there. Where else is there value? I only have two outstanding investments: Tories to lose over 200 seats @ 13/8 (now 4/9) Reform to poll over 9% @ 6/5 (now Reform to poll over 9.5% Evens). Will be interesting to see if opinion polls show with regard to Reform. The last 6 polls have them at 12, 8, 12, 12, 9, 11. (av 10.7%). Slightly lower than a month or so ago. There should be value at Constituency level when they come out. Updates to follow. I'm not a gambling man, however, if you have money on the Reform odd's you must be dreaming of Farage returning as you'll certainly win ! A word of caution. At the moment it looks like a Labour landslide. However, now we'll get to hear their policies and read their Manifesto, both of which will be open to scrutiny. This may close the gap a bit. |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on May 23, 2024 10:59:35 GMT
What's the difference between a gamble and an investment? The former tends to be 'gut instinct', the latter is based more on data interrogation and analysis. So plenty of work to be done at constituency level - using data from the Brexit vote, 2017 and 2019 General Elections. Obviously it's a Labour landslide and equally obviously a Labour Majority. No value to be had there. Where else is there value? I only have two outstanding investments: Tories to lose over 200 seats @ 13/8 (now 4/9) Reform to poll over 9% @ 6/5 (now Reform to poll over 9.5% Evens). Will be interesting to see if opinion polls show with regard to Reform. The last 6 polls have them at 12, 8, 12, 12, 9, 11. (av 10.7%). Slightly lower than a month or so ago. There should be value at Constituency level when they come out. Updates to follow. I'm not a gambling man, however, if you have money on the Reform odd's you must be dreaming of Farage returning as you'll certainly win ! A word of caution. At the moment it looks like a Labour landslide. However, now we'll get to hear their policies and read their Manifesto, both of which will be open to scrutiny. This may close the gap a bit. Farage won't stand... it was always going to be unlikely. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837In his statement, Mr Farage said he had "thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election. "As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice's leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson. I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that". So I'll take a positive. Instead of trying to win a seat (almost impossible) - he can tour the country with Reform and drum up nationwide support. |
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bluetornados
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Post by bluetornados on May 23, 2024 13:29:22 GMT
I'm not a gambling man, however, if you have money on the Reform odd's you must be dreaming of Farage returning as you'll certainly win ! A word of caution. At the moment it looks like a Labour landslide. However, now we'll get to hear their policies and read their Manifesto, both of which will be open to scrutiny. This may close the gap a bit. Farage won't stand... it was always going to be unlikely. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837In his statement, Mr Farage said he had "thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election. "As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice's leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson. I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that". So I'll take a positive. Instead of trying to win a seat (almost impossible) - he can tour the country with Reform and drum up nationwide support.And take a pint of the good stuff in every town city or village on his way...probably on the house too...  |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on May 29, 2024 8:58:54 GMT
Some interesting odds out there. That reflect what people really think - odds simply reflect the weight of money. Conservative over/under seats is about 140.5 Labour over/under seats is about 418.5 (So you get slightly worse than Evens for betting either side of the strike price). An excellent calculator here. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.htmlPlug in what you think. See if your prediction is vastly different to what the bookies are suggesting... It 'looks' like the bookies are expecting to the Tories to do better than the opinion polls suggest. Only bet what you can afford to lose. When the fun stops, stop. etc etc. |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on May 30, 2024 16:09:20 GMT
Tory Seats strike at 140 implies about a 16% deficit to Labour and Reform to poll below 10%. You have to make a few assumptions, but LibDems flatlining at 9-11% looks fairly set. Although bizarrely that gets them around 40 seats. Not much upside for Tories to gain much more than 150 seats. IMHO.
Reform to not gain a seat is interesting.
With the first past the post system - it's almost impossible for them to win a seat.
Therefore Reform to win zero seats at 2/7 looks very attractive. Short odds, but for something that is 'almost certain' to happen.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 3, 2024 9:28:38 GMT
Tory strike price at 140.5 has taken a hammering.
The public don't agree with the bookies initial odds.
Odds on Tories to get 140 or less seats now 1/2.
Since the election was called, very little movement in the opinion polls.
Labour will continue to say nothing.
Conservatives will come up with policies lifted from Yes, Prime Minister.
Libdems say nothing of interest to anyone.
Voters will become less and less interested.
Conclusion - Greens & Reform to pick up the protest vote.
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Post by Nobbygas on Jun 3, 2024 10:34:33 GMT
What are the odds on the lowest turnout in history?
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jun 3, 2024 10:43:20 GMT
What are the odds on the lowest turnout in history? Got to be short odds surely. Hint, never bet though. |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 3, 2024 15:44:24 GMT
Tory strike price at 140.5 has taken a hammering. The public don't agree with the bookies initial odds. Odds on Tories to get 140 or less seats now 1/2. Since the election was called, very little movement in the opinion polls. Labour will continue to say nothing. Conservatives will come up with policies lifted from Yes, Prime Minister. Libdems say nothing of interest to anyone. Voters will become less and less interested. Conclusion - Greens & Reform to pick up the protest vote. Farage to lead Reform has crippled the Tories in the betting. Odds on Tories to get 140 or less seats now 1/5. Bets involving Reform have been taken down at the moment... I wonder which direction they will be heading. LOL. |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 6, 2024 8:37:40 GMT
Tory strike price at 140.5 has taken a hammering. The public don't agree with the bookies initial odds. Odds on Tories to get 140 or less seats now 1/2. Since the election was called, very little movement in the opinion polls. Labour will continue to say nothing. Conservatives will come up with policies lifted from Yes, Prime Minister. Libdems say nothing of interest to anyone. Voters will become less and less interested. Conclusion - Greens & Reform to pick up the protest vote. Farage to lead Reform has crippled the Tories in the betting. Odds on Tories to get 140 or less seats now 1/5. Bets involving Reform have been taken down at the moment... I wonder which direction they will be heading. LOL. Bookies don't know how to price up Reform. Bad news is backing zero seats has cost me! (Fear not I have a lot of bets for Reform to do well and Tories to do badly). All hail Farage - he's 3-10 to win Clacton. Hence my lost money above. But the thought of him grinning as he is declared a winner and due to take his seat in the House of Commons, along with James O'Brien spontaneously combusting... you know what - £200 well spent / wasted. |
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Post by Nobbygas on Jun 6, 2024 9:12:47 GMT
I think the bookies are having pricing up Reform as nobody has a clue where the 'silent majority' votes are going! Polls are a waste of time as the polling industry has got things consistantly wrong for the last ten years. How many of the major polling companies got Brexit right? How many of the major polls gave Boris an eighty seat majority? In both of those cases they underestimated the 'silent majority'.
If Reform get five seats it'll be a minor miracle! What will be more interesting is the total amount of votes they pick-up nationwide.
UKIP didn't win any seats, but they put the fear of God into all the other parties with their vote share, which led to the Brexit Referendum.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 6, 2024 13:33:27 GMT
I think the bookies are having pricing up Reform as nobody has a clue where the 'silent majority' votes are going! Polls are a waste of time as the polling industry has got things consistantly wrong for the last ten years. How many of the major polling companies got Brexit right? How many of the major polls gave Boris an eighty seat majority? In both of those cases they underestimated the 'silent majority'. If Reform get five seats it'll be a minor miracle! What will be more interesting is the total amount of votes they pick-up nationwide. UKIP didn't win any seats, but they put the fear of God into all the other parties with their vote share, which led to the Brexit Referendum. Ladbrokes had Reform to poll over 9% at around 6/5 for ages. Loaded up on that one. You can't find an over/under bet on Reform % vote anywhere. As you say they just can't figure out how much of the silent majority will vote Reform. Do only right wing people drink in pubs in Essex? I haven't spoken to anyone who isn't voting Tory (and holding their nose), or Reform. Betfair has tight bands: 10-12% 11/2 12-14% 11/2 14-16% 9/2 16-18% 5/1 18-20% 11/2 So 'probably' 14-18%, but less than 10% not impossible, as is more than 20%. They really don't have a clue. Hence investment opportunities. As for the pollsters - those using MRP Model have been pretty decent to be fair. The Brexit vote was a great example of the 'silent' right wing voter coming in to play. |
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 7, 2024 9:03:34 GMT
Ladbrokes finally priced up Reform vote share. Strike price under/over is now 16.5%.
Up a massive 7% over the last month.
Farage standing obviously helped - but an under/over market at 9.5% was just the wrong odds given the upside.
Who saw that at the time? Mmmm.
Odds on Tories losing over 200 seats is now as tight as 2/9.
Tories to have less than 100 seats - bookies not quoting any more that I can find.
However 50-100 seats is around 6-4 (most likely outcome), followed by 100-150 at 2-1. 150-200 is 6/1.
Annoyed that Skybet wouldn't take my full stake on Tories to get less than 100 seats at 7/1 (Back in February). The bookies are very nervous about this election. Farage has thrown a massive spanner in the works. It's great. I had a couple of bets refused yesterday. And they weren't huge bets. (Just had to use three bookies rather than just one).
Looking through statistics, checking electoral calculus prediction models, monitoring opinion polls and interrogating the data to draw some conclusions could be financially beneficial.
Oh - and the D-Day celebrations fed nicely into the Reform narrative. Proud to be British and all that. And then Sunak left early. LOL.
You couldn't make up this s**t.
Some people are embarrassed, not proud to be British. One wonders if they would be better off f*ck*ng off abroad.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jun 7, 2024 10:44:33 GMT
Imagine
A diversity of opinion in a democracy, who would have thought it.
Xenophobes, Nationalists and fascists have never liked it throughout history.
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Post by baselswh on Jun 7, 2024 11:05:28 GMT
Imagine A diversity of opinion in a democracy, who would have thought it. Xenophobes, Nationalists and fascists have never liked it throughout history. Unfortunately we've imported hundreds of thousands of fascists, they masquerade under the name of Islam and unfortunately for Britons some f****** idiots actually support them. |
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Post by Nobbygas on Jun 7, 2024 11:29:28 GMT
Imagine A diversity of opinion in a democracy, who would have thought it. Xenophobes, Nationalists and fascists have never liked it throughout history. You can add communists, dictators and religious groups to that list, for some balance. |
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jun 7, 2024 12:51:15 GMT
Imagine A diversity of opinion in a democracy, who would have thought it. Xenophobes, Nationalists and fascists have never liked it throughout history. You can add communists, dictators and religious groups to that list, for some balance. Oh, totally agree. Fascism is a broad church and incorporates the loons you mention |
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