eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 11, 2024 8:39:40 GMT
Interesting one. Reform to get 1 or 2 seats at 13/8. Farage is nailed on at Clacton, 1-4. Next most winnable seats are a bit remote: Boston 6-4 Ashfield 5-2 There's a bit of money going on Reform to wim more seats than this. eg 3-4 seats 5-1. But looking at the individual constituencies, this is very unlikely.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 12, 2024 8:44:35 GMT
Thought for the day. With the 'protest vote' increasing... Green Party to get 2+ seats. They are short odds on to win in both Brighton Pavillion and Bristol Central. So 8/11 for them to get 2+ seats looks an interesting one. They have little or no chance of 3 or more. But the chance to register a protest vote in one of these constituencies that actually returns an MP...
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Post by Nobbygas on Jun 14, 2024 11:57:05 GMT
So Reform polling at about 19 or 20%. The opinion seems to be they have to reach around 23% before gaining any seats above the two they may win if it stays at it's current percentage. If they reach 26% then they will make serious inroads.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 15, 2024 8:39:42 GMT
So Reform polling at about 19 or 20%. The opinion seems to be they have to reach around 23% before gaining any seats above the two they may win if it stays at it's current percentage. If they reach 26% then they will make serious inroads. It's a stunning success story. I think they'll end up polling around 16-18%. Not too much more upside from here. I still think silent Tory voters will hold their collective noses and vote for Rishi. But it looks to be not a lot more than 20%. The protest parties (I include the Libdems) are all doing well as people are increasingly frustrated with Labour and the Tories.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jun 26, 2024 9:21:29 GMT
Looks like Reform have closed the gap in Boston & Skegness and Ashfield. So I'm thinking both of these will go to Reform as they are the only party with momentum. Farage is nailed on in Clacton. The chance for your vote to make a difference in these constituencies. Ladbrokes offering 6-1 (with price boost) for Reform to get 3-4 seats. Interestingly the tightest odds are on Reform to get over 7 seats (@11-8). But looking at individual constituency odds, this looks remote in the extreme. I think this represents a classic bookies opportunity. A lot of people chucking £10-£20 on Reform to do 'really well' because either: 1. they really want them to, even though this is unlikely, or 2. They don't understand the parliamentary process. The only thing remotely interesting thing in run up to the vote, is the rise of Reform in the 2024 Immigration Election.
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Jul 5, 2024 12:04:58 GMT
Looks like Reform have closed the gap in Boston & Skegness and Ashfield. So I'm thinking both of these will go to Reform as they are the only party with momentum. Farage is nailed on in Clacton. The chance for your vote to make a difference in these constituencies. Ladbrokes offering 6-1 (with price boost) for Reform to get 3-4 seats. Interestingly the tightest odds are on Reform to get over 7 seats (@11-8). But looking at individual constituency odds, this looks remote in the extreme. I think this represents a classic bookies opportunity. A lot of people chucking £10-£20 on Reform to do 'really well' because either: 1. they really want them to, even though this is unlikely, or 2. They don't understand the parliamentary process. The only thing remotely interesting thing in run up to the vote, is the rise of Reform in the 2024 Immigration Election. .
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Jul 5, 2024 12:12:04 GMT
The Dept of Health advises against gambling your income to feed a alcohol habit.
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