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Post by lostinspace on Oct 17, 2023 17:48:21 GMT
A lot of people are forecasting that the advance will soon stop due to the Autumn rains turning everything into a mudbath. I don't think this will happen. The Ukrainian advance is being conducted mainly by Infantry, which is why it appears to be slow going. Also, the Ukes will not stop as it will just allow the Russians time to construct further lines of defense. I am wondering if all the other problems in the World plus the 'summer offensive' not having chased the Russians back over their borders might make the USA tell the Ukes that they will have to make a negotiated peace with Russia ? having just supplied the Uke's with the ATACMS missiles that doesn't seem to be on the agenda.......and already these missiles having a telling effect on the invaders resources www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67135163
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Oct 17, 2023 19:10:09 GMT
I am wondering if all the other problems in the World plus the 'summer offensive' not having chased the Russians back over their borders might make the USA tell the Ukes that they will have to make a negotiated peace with Russia ? having just supplied the Uke's with the ATACMS missiles that doesn't seem to be on the agenda.......and already these missiles having a telling effect on the invaders resources www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67135163Yes I saw that and its one of the reasons that I think that maybe peace negotiations might be happening behind the scenes,Ukraine will want to negotiate from the strongest position possible therefore the missile attacks.....the Russians will want to kill as many Ukes as possible. Once a cease fire starts the Russians will keep talks going as long as possible to strengthen minefields and other defences.
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Nobbygas
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 17, 2023 23:06:09 GMT
A lot of people are forecasting that the advance will soon stop due to the Autumn rains turning everything into a mudbath. I don't think this will happen. The Ukrainian advance is being conducted mainly by Infantry, which is why it appears to be slow going. Also, the Ukes will not stop as it will just allow the Russians time to construct further lines of defense. I am wondering if all the other problems in the World plus the 'summer offensive' not having chased the Russians back over their borders might make the USA tell the Ukes that they will have to make a negotiated peace with Russia ? I don't think that will happen. The US are currently spending something like 2% of their total defence budget in Ukraine. For that 2% they are getting the complete degredation of the Russian military. Any analyst will think that that is a very good return on investment.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Oct 18, 2023 18:47:56 GMT
I am wondering if all the other problems in the World plus the 'summer offensive' not having chased the Russians back over their borders might make the USA tell the Ukes that they will have to make a negotiated peace with Russia ? I don't think that will happen. The US are currently spending something like 2% of their total defence budget in Ukraine. For that 2% they are getting the complete degredation of the Russian military. Any analyst will think that that is a very good return on investment. Nobby I Googled US defence budget and the figure that comes up is $721.5 billion... Next I Googled US spending in Ukraine and it says that US have given Ukraine $113 billion since Russian invasion started Feb 2022...IF those figures are correct it would seem thats more than 10% of US defence budget over 18 months ? Biden wants another $100 billion to give to Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan... Amazing figures.
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Nobbygas
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Post by Nobbygas on Oct 19, 2023 7:03:41 GMT
I don't think that will happen. The US are currently spending something like 2% of their total defence budget in Ukraine. For that 2% they are getting the complete degredation of the Russian military. Any analyst will think that that is a very good return on investment. Nobby I Googled US defence budget and the figure that comes up is $721.5 billion... Next I Googled US spending in Ukraine and it says that US have given Ukraine $113 billion since Russian invasion started Feb 2022...IF those figures are correct it would seem thats more than 10% of US defence budget over 18 months ? Biden wants another $100 billion to give to Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan... Amazing figures. Even if your figures are correct then it is still an amazing return for the US especially as not a single US soldier has been killed in the process.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Nov 16, 2023 10:06:56 GMT
A massive drop in news from Ukraine war since October 7th attack on Israel but recently both sides saying the Ukes have a bridgehead on east side of the Dnieper near Kherson. We have heard this before and it came to nothing but maybe this time the Ukes can hold the bridgehead,build up their forces and then breakout and threaten the land bridge to Crimea. The weather could be a factor as rain turns the ground to liquid **it before the cold weather freezes it so maybe the Ukes will have to stick to the roads which can be defended easier by the Russians, we will see.
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Nobbygas
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Post by Nobbygas on Nov 16, 2023 11:18:27 GMT
A massive drop in news from Ukraine war since October 7th attack on Israel but recently both sides saying the Ukes have a bridgehead on east side of the Dnieper near Kherson. We have heard this before and it came to nothing but maybe this time the Ukes can hold the bridgehead,build up their forces and then breakout and threaten the land bridge to Crimea. The weather could be a factor as rain turns the ground to liquid **it before the cold weather freezes it so maybe the Ukes will have to stick to the roads which can be defended easier by the Russians, we will see. It is an interesting move. If the Ukes expand that bridgehead then the Russians will have to move units back from the East. Once again the Ukes have got the Russians into a position where they have to react rather than be proactive.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Nov 17, 2023 10:13:55 GMT
A massive drop in news from Ukraine war since October 7th attack on Israel but recently both sides saying the Ukes have a bridgehead on east side of the Dnieper near Kherson. We have heard this before and it came to nothing but maybe this time the Ukes can hold the bridgehead,build up their forces and then breakout and threaten the land bridge to Crimea. The weather could be a factor as rain turns the ground to liquid **it before the cold weather freezes it so maybe the Ukes will have to stick to the roads which can be defended easier by the Russians, we will see. It is an interesting move. If the Ukes expand that bridgehead then the Russians will have to move units back from the East. Once again the Ukes have got the Russians into a position where they have to react rather than be proactive. i think that the Russians will try to contain the bridgehead with minefields and use drones/artillery to batter the Ukes...a bit like a small Anzio. As you say the Russians will have to shift forces to the bridgehead,maybe the Ukes want to get them away from Adviika ?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Nov 17, 2023 10:58:52 GMT
Reports on the BBC about 20,000 Ukes who left the country to avoid military service and another 21,000 captured whilst trying to leave. Also the amount of corruption with people purchasing medical exemptions.
Amercian intelligence put Ukrainian military deaths at 90,000 between Feb 22 and Aug 23....I estimate that its over 90,000 deaths plus double that in seriously wounded and unable to return to duties, if I am correct the Russians are bleeding Uke manpower in a war of attrition.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Nov 18, 2023 12:06:14 GMT
A definite change in the tone of reporting on the war by the BBC for the second day,in the online news today they report from the bridgehead and interview Uke soldiers there and on other fronts,they dont seem confident or happy with their leaders. Up until now the BBC reports have been upbeat so its interesting to see the change,maybe they realise that this war could go on for quite a while.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Dec 4, 2023 17:32:19 GMT
BBC online news today an interview with a Uke soldier who has been in the bridgehead east of the Dnieper,its worth a read.
Hard to find much news from the battlefields (since October 7th) but there has been other bits of news that might be important.
Zelensky doesnt want the election due in Ukraine next year to take place.
Klitschko very critical about how the war is being fought.
Russia to increase armed forces manpower by 15% to 1.3 million.
Stoltenberg saying that NATO should prepare for bad news...summer offensive didnt succeed etc.
White House warning that it will run out of money for Ukraine by the end of the year unless congress acts
How much of this is BS or bluster remains to be seen.
Apparently NATO/western senior officers are astounded by Russian willingness to take large casualties and the ability of their soldiers to live in such bad conditions and still fight, I am not astounded ,maybe they need to talk to people who fought against Russians and read a bit of military history. Always said that they werent fantastic but they dont care about losses,theyre brutal and theyre used to poor food and poor conditions.
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Ukraine
Dec 4, 2023 21:27:26 GMT
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Post by lostinspace on Dec 4, 2023 21:27:26 GMT
Thought the election affair was written into their law/ constitution around the start of the wear that there would not be one until hostilities had ceased. Note also that the American Republicans are moaning about a possible non Ukrainian election , saying it was unconstitutional, there's rich for you!!
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Dec 4, 2023 21:44:46 GMT
Thought the election affair was written into their law/ constitution around the start of the wear that there would not be one until hostilities had ceased. Note also that the American Republicans are moaning about a possible non Ukrainian election , saying it was unconstitutional, there's rich for you!! They introduced martial law and one thing that is stated (apparently) no elections whilst a state of martial law is in place...presumably martial law stays as long as the war continues.
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Nobbygas
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Post by Nobbygas on Dec 5, 2023 10:10:52 GMT
To be fair it's pretty difficult to hold an election with everything that's going on. Usually a country would put aside political differences during wartime and form a type of Unified Government.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Dec 5, 2023 10:56:57 GMT
To be fair it's pretty difficult to hold an election with everything that's going on. Usually a country would put aside political differences during wartime and form a type of Unified Government. Yes and even more difficult with millions of Ukes living in various European countries. I suppose it becomes more important if the war goes on for years, there has been a 30 year war even a 100 year war in the past.
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Nobbygas
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Post by Nobbygas on Dec 5, 2023 13:18:06 GMT
To be fair it's pretty difficult to hold an election with everything that's going on. Usually a country would put aside political differences during wartime and form a type of Unified Government. Yes and even more difficult with millions of Ukes living in various European countries. I suppose it becomes more important if the war goes on for years, there has been a 30 year war even a 100 year war in the past. I don't think a modern war will last as long as those. Their economies will collapse long before then.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Dec 5, 2023 17:08:42 GMT
Yes and even more difficult with millions of Ukes living in various European countries. I suppose it becomes more important if the war goes on for years, there has been a 30 year war even a 100 year war in the past. I don't think a modern war will last as long as those. Their economies will collapse long before then. Maybe a more likely scenario is the World splitting into two groups ( The West and the rest) and having a forever cold war with fighting flaring from time to time where one groups territory borders the others.
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Ukraine
Dec 23, 2023 11:44:12 GMT
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Post by lostinspace on Dec 23, 2023 11:44:12 GMT
Ukraine claiming to have shot down 3 SU-34 warplanes, there's a few million $$ in a heap! As Ukraine has now adopted the Gregorian calender they will,this year celebrate Christmas day on December 25th, in the nations move to unite closer with European ways and move away from the Russian calendar where they celebrate Christmas on January 7th.
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oldie
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Ukraine
Dec 23, 2023 13:23:06 GMT
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Post by oldie on Dec 23, 2023 13:23:06 GMT
Ukraine claiming to have shot down 3 SU-34 warplanes, there's a few million $$ in a heap! As Ukraine has now adopted the Gregorian calender they will,this year celebrate Christmas day on December 25th, in the nations move to unite closer with European ways and move away from the Russian calendar where they celebrate Christmas on January 7th. Not that I know anything about it but I get the sense that Ukraine has expended $USD 100s of billions and probably regained a couple of hundred sq kilometres at best. If Russia waits for the west to run out of money and patience will they be emboldened to go after Moldova and the smaller Baltic States..if so, will we let them?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Dec 26, 2023 19:09:20 GMT
Ukraine claiming to have shot down 3 SU-34 warplanes, there's a few million $$ in a heap! As Ukraine has now adopted the Gregorian calender they will,this year celebrate Christmas day on December 25th, in the nations move to unite closer with European ways and move away from the Russian calendar where they celebrate Christmas on January 7th. As well as the 3 jets the Ukes have destroyed a warship today. On the battlefield the Russians have taken a key town Mariinka from which the Ukes have been shelling Donetsk. Elsewhere the BBC have reported that Zelensky wants ANOTHER 450,000/500,000 soldiers they also said that 768,000 Ukes aged 18-60 are living in EU countries plus ,000 in non EU countries. Also various reports that trade between Russia and China is at record levels,Western leaders should have made sure that everyone was going to join the sanctions,really this is an own goal,China (and India) must be laughing at the rest of us.
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