|
Post by stevek192 on Jan 12, 2016 11:45:41 GMT
Looking at the next 5 games it would appear that we are now entering our most difficult run of games which says to me that how we get through this run of games can determine whether this season is a chase for the automatics, a chase for the Play Offs or a mid table finish. To be serious automatics (which I don't think we are at this time) I believe we need to get 10 points from this run. Play offs 7 or more and anything less mid table-8th.
Personally unless we have an influx of quality and particularly a targetman (Gaffney or similar) soon I think we will struggle to get more than 6 points from these games. Barnet were there for the taking last Saturday and IMO the failure to secure a striker quickly lost us three points. Having watched Oxford play Swansea I really can't see us getting anything from this game and a point would be a fantastic result. They have so much pace and energy and probably the best player in this division in Rofe and I think if we go into this game with wingbacks then we will get destroyed as they will get in down the flanks. Our best hope is to go at them with a flat back four.
I have entered every game pretty well this season thinking we can win and looking at our fixtures after the next 5 I think we can look at all our remaining games that way. Strangely I don't have any worries at home now but I worry that our away form is going to be the problem. I don't honestly see us getting a result at either Oxford or Portsmouth but the other games in the next 5 are winnable although when did we get a positive result at Accrington!!
What do others think? How much do you think it depends on our transfer activity or how many think that we have the squad now that can be successful?
|
|
|
Post by CabbagePatchBlues on Jan 12, 2016 12:15:38 GMT
Giantkilling acts are invariably followed by a down-to-earth result. It's a long way down from a blue moon and we have the team to shove them over the edge.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2016 12:28:36 GMT
At the start of the season I would have settled for a mid table position. Rovers performance at away games that I have seen has been good and I would be a bit disappointed if they don't make the play offs now. They definitely need a centre forward and most people recognise that,maybe they could still get to the play offs without one. I suppose Mildenhall is going to stay as keeper until the end of the season ? they still have to sort that out long term. I think that Bodin or Montano need to play more or they have to bring a winger in. I also think that a defender should come in now,they need a bit more cover in case of injuries and suspensions. Draws at Oxford,Accrington and Portsmouth would be good results for Rovers. I cant see automatic promotion happening no matter who they get in.
|
|
|
Post by severnbeachline on Jan 12, 2016 12:32:37 GMT
WDDWD
|
|
|
Post by stroudblue on Jan 12, 2016 12:46:48 GMT
Probably just outside the playoffs. Quality up front and midfield is still lacking IMO. But so far I think the team has done well and think DC has done a good job this season.
|
|
GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
|
Post by GasMacc1 on Jan 12, 2016 13:05:14 GMT
Over the last ten years, there's only been one occasion when 85 points has not been enough to get automatic promotion from the fourth tier. To make the play-offs, 72 points has been enough eight times out of nine. We won't really care against which opponents we get the points, as long as we get enough. For the hell of it, though, here's how we got on against the promoted and play-off teams in the last three seasons in which we were promoted D3: 1989-90 | Home | Away | Points | BCFC 1982 | W | D | 4 | Notts County | W | L | 3 | Tranmere | W | W | 6 | Bury | W | D | 4 | Bolton | D | L | 1 | Total/30 | | | 18 |
L2: 2006-07 | Home | Away | Points | Walsall | L | D | 1 | Hartlepool | L | W | 3 | Swindon | W | D | 4 | MK Dons | D | L | 1 | Lincoln | D | L | 1 | Shrewsbury | W | D | 4 | Total/36 | | | 14 |
NL: 2014-15 | Home | Away | Points | Barnet | W | L | 3 | Grimsby | D | W | 4 | Eastleigh | L | D | 1 | FGR | L | D | 1 | Total/24 | |
| 9 |
So our success rate against our main competitors for promotion was 60% in 1989-90; 39% in 2006-07; 38% in 2014-15. This season, from the six games played so far against the others in the top 7, we've got only 4 points out of 18, which is 22%. Let's guess that we draw at Oxford, Accrington and Cobblers, lose at Pompey, beat Plymouth and Wycombe. That would give us 13 points out of 36 (36%).
|
|
bs14gas
Robin. S. Layer
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 462
|
Post by bs14gas on Jan 12, 2016 14:26:45 GMT
At least we aren't going into this run of difficult fixtures in the bottom 2/3 and absolutely desperate for points!
As a few others have said, I think we will finish just outside the play offs, but in top 10. Probably three players short of promotion. Most would have regarded this a consolidation year, then challenge next year, anything better is a bonus.
|
|
harrybuckle
Always look on the bright side
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,429
|
Post by harrybuckle on Jan 12, 2016 15:11:09 GMT
Clearly results so far against the top six or so sides have been poor
Northampton, Accrington, Oxford, Portsmouth have all yielded nil points at home while a draw at Plymouth with just one home win against Wycombe means four points from a possible 18.
With trips to Oxford, Accrington and Portsmouth and a home game with Argyle coming up soon it will be a really challenging few weeks.
|
|
|
Post by severnbeachline on Jan 12, 2016 17:16:29 GMT
Oxford: win. They'll be knackered after Swansea and we're taking 2k+
Plymouth: draw. My dad's first game since Eastville so the boys are bound to pull something out.
Accrington: draw. I'd put this as a win cuz our away form is still pretty good plus they've got SPL teams sniffing around their best players but I'm going so it'll definitely be a draw.
Wimbledon: win. we can beat Wimbledon at home. They think Akinfenwa is a good striker. I mean come on.
Portsmouth: draw. By the law of us doing slightly better away.
I'm going with my baseless drunk predication from last week that if we sign Gaffney we'll come third but if not we'll come 6th-7th. You heard it here first.
|
|
|
Post by severnbeachline on Jan 12, 2016 17:20:49 GMT
|
|
irishrover
Global Moderator
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 3,372
|
Post by irishrover on Jan 12, 2016 18:37:35 GMT
My feeling is that we do better in games where sides come at us and try and win the game. In games where sides sit back (either on leads or because they're playing for the draw) we have perhaps struggled to break them down. Therefore a run of games against teams in the mix and looking for points may not be the worst for us. It's not as if there is anyone terrifying in this League who should be able to play us off the park. Oxford away looks quite tough - the rest look alright to me.
|
|
Bridgeman
Alfie Biggs
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 3,549
|
Post by Bridgeman on Jan 12, 2016 20:11:52 GMT
Oxford: win. They'll be knackered after Swansea and we're taking 2k+ Plymouth: draw. My dad's first game since Eastville so the boys are bound to pull something out. Accrington: draw. I'd put this as a win cuz our away form is still pretty good plus they've got SPL teams sniffing around their best players but I'm going so it'll definitely be a draw. Wimbledon: win. we can beat Wimbledon at home. They think Akinfenwa is a good striker. I mean come on. Portsmouth: draw. By the law of us doing slightly better away. I'm going with my baseless drunk predication from last week that if we sign Gaffney we'll come third but if not we'll come 6th-7th. You heard it here first. Cool....are you on drugs, alcohol or both....can you supply us with the same mix so we can all share your hallucination but I can't say I'm not liking it though
|
|
|
Post by severnbeachline on Jan 12, 2016 23:08:06 GMT
Oxford: win. They'll be knackered after Swansea and we're taking 2k+ Plymouth: draw. My dad's first game since Eastville so the boys are bound to pull something out. Accrington: draw. I'd put this as a win cuz our away form is still pretty good plus they've got SPL teams sniffing around their best players but I'm going so it'll definitely be a draw. Wimbledon: win. we can beat Wimbledon at home. They think Akinfenwa is a good striker. I mean come on. Portsmouth: draw. By the law of us doing slightly better away. I'm going with my baseless drunk predication from last week that if we sign Gaffney we'll come third but if not we'll come 6th-7th. You heard it here first. Cool....are you on drugs, alcohol or both....can you supply us with the same mix so we can all share your hallucination but I can't say I'm not liking it though Darrell Clarke is my only drug my son.
|
|
|
Post by severnbeachline on Jan 12, 2016 23:11:56 GMT
Oxford: win. They'll be knackered after Swansea and we're taking 2k+ Plymouth: draw. My dad's first game since Eastville so the boys are bound to pull something out. Accrington: draw. I'd put this as a win cuz our away form is still pretty good plus they've got SPL teams sniffing around their best players but I'm going so it'll definitely be a draw. Wimbledon: win. we can beat Wimbledon at home. They think Akinfenwa is a good striker. I mean come on. Portsmouth: draw. By the law of us doing slightly better away. I'm going with my baseless drunk predication from last week that if we sign Gaffney we'll come third but if not we'll come 6th-7th. You heard it here first. Cool....are you on drugs, alcohol or both....can you supply us with the same mix so we can all share your hallucination but I can't say I'm not liking it though Seriously though I don't even think it's that optimistic to say 6th - 7th.
|
|
|
Post by DudeLebowski on Jan 12, 2016 23:52:15 GMT
Oxford - Win Plymouth - Draw Accy- OFF Wombles - Win Pompey - Draw
Get your money on that lot!!
|
|
sharkey
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 71
|
Post by sharkey on Jan 13, 2016 11:48:27 GMT
I do not agree that the next 1 month will define our season. The games after that do not appear too difficult (Northampton aside) and the teams outside the top 7 don't appear that great to mount a challenge.
|
|
|
Post by dickgherkin on Jan 13, 2016 20:52:32 GMT
I'm hoping for a playoff chase that keeps the season exciting to the end. Anything extra - a bonus. But, I'd be worried we'd "do a city" if we got promoted without a change of board and an injection of cash.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2016 21:14:07 GMT
We'd be no worse off if we went up this season than we were in 06/07, and that worked alright for a couple of seasons before we dispensed with a successful formula. Its not all about money all of the time.
|
|
|
Post by dickgherkin on Jan 13, 2016 21:27:52 GMT
It is a lot of the time tho..... but, yep, I shouldn't be so pessimistic
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 17:51:45 GMT
Well it looks a bit more do-able now Rovers have a centre forward. I would persevere with Montano / Bodin on the wing and get in a goalkeeper and cover for the full backs,the squad would then look good for the play offs..IF we can keep Taylor and Lockyer.
|
|