eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 20, 2024 9:30:31 GMT
The Labour Party and the Tory Party face the same old problem. They are both broad churches and battle to keep the extreme elements of the party under control. There is no credible alternative for Labour voters. Marxists, Socialist Workers, and Communists have all been proven unappealing to the British public. Reform is a credible alternative for Conservative voters. I think a few high profile right wing Tories defecting there would increase their vote share (might annoy you trymer). Problem is that politically a Tory heading to Reform would be a massive risk. The Conservative Party is the single most successful political party in Western Europe over the last couple of centuries. Actually - make that the world www.economist.com/britain/2019/12/21/britains-tories-are-the-worlds-most-successful-party-heres-whyBetter to stick with them long term than jump to Reform - which could well just go 'pop' in a couple of years. Either way the Conservatives faces an existential crisis right now. If Reform poll around 10-15%, the Tories could very easily win less than 100 seats in the General Election. Odds on that are still 7-1. You heard it hear first. Yes as soon as the phrase "broad church " is used you know that particular mob will spend most of their time fighting amongst themselves like rats in a sack. Just appealing to disgruntled Tory voters wont be enough,one area where Reform could score in traditional Labour areas that have been blitzed by crime is by really having draconian policies on crime and building new prisons. I think that letting to many Tories in would put some people off (me anyway) Boris Johnson has been mentioned,no doubt if he thought it was in his interest he would join Reform,he wasnt a Brexiteer until it seemed like a good idea for him to become one....blokes a ****,just interested in himself, for everyone who would vote for him half a dozen would be put off. I agree Boris is a political opportunist, like a vast majority of them. Which is why I don't see many, if any, senior Tories defecting to Reform. Better to cling on to your seat, wait for SKS to implode and re-gain power within the Tory party in 2029 (or God forbid 2034). The interesting character in all of this is Nigel Farage (liked and loathed). He has a history of performing well. UKIP/ Brexit Party were one issue political parties and guess what - they achieved the objective. He must be thoroughly enjoying himself at the moment. He's the Honorary President of Reform. He recently attended the "Popular Conservatives" (oh the irony) event and has hinted mischievously about becoming leader of the Tories. My thinking is that he if he can't wrangle a senior role within the Conservative Party (and a chance to push it to the right) - he will join Reform and sabotage any chance the Tories have of avoiding an extinction event in the next General Election. Skybet had Tories to get less than 100 seats priced at 7-1. That's now gone LOL. Now 11-4, same as Ladbrokes. Told you so. Don't bet what you can't afford to lose. When the fun stops, stop. etc etc.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 20, 2024 9:57:42 GMT
Can you imagine
Mentioning Farage as a "leader"
God help us. Is he working class?
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 20, 2024 11:29:02 GMT
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Post by Nobbygas on Feb 20, 2024 11:47:58 GMT
Not really a 'scandal' is it !
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 20, 2024 13:28:22 GMT
Not really a 'scandal' is it ! My words. Having laughed my way through the first couple of pages of the Reform policy documents my head was full of hyperbole (instead of sh*t, in before youš)
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Post by Nobbygas on Feb 22, 2024 10:02:12 GMT
Parliament covered itself in glory once again yesterday.
Tell me more about what you find hilarious regarding Reforms policies.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 22, 2024 10:11:15 GMT
Parliament covered itself in glory once again yesterday. Tell me more about what you find hilarious regarding Reforms policies. I promise I will on Reform, about to leave for Abergavenny. Carmarthen next week, anywhere near you?
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Post by Nobbygas on Feb 22, 2024 11:17:24 GMT
Parliament covered itself in glory once again yesterday. Tell me more about what you find hilarious regarding Reforms policies. I promise I will on Reform, about to leave for Abergavenny. Carmarthen next week, anywhere near you? Nope. I'm overlooking the Severn Estuary.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 22, 2024 16:50:27 GMT
I promise I will on Reform, about to leave for Abergavenny. Carmarthen next week, anywhere near you? Nope. I'm overlooking the Severn Estuary. Blimey We are nearly neighbours š±š
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Post by Nobbygas on Feb 23, 2024 11:41:03 GMT
Nope. I'm overlooking the Severn Estuary. Blimey We are nearly neighbours š±š There are no riff-raff near me š
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 23, 2024 14:01:09 GMT
Blimey We are nearly neighbours š±š There are no riff-raff near me š ššš The class divide?š¤š
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Post by Nobbygas on Feb 23, 2024 15:33:54 GMT
There are no riff-raff near me š ššš The class divide?š¤š All this 'class' stuff is nonsense. I'm a Meader.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 23, 2024 17:06:06 GMT
ššš The class divide?š¤š All this 'class' stuff is nonsense. I'm a Meader. Yeah I know. I just cannot tolerate people who say that they don't understand, or that policies do not apply to them because they are working class. Apart from the 1%, aren't we all working class? For me the claim of ignorance is an insult.
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 24, 2024 10:15:22 GMT
Odds update, from the people who put their money where their mouth is: Odds for the Tories to lose over 200 seats in the next GE have been slashed from 13-8 to Evens over the last 10 days. Odds for the Tories to have less than 100 seats after the next GE have been slashed from 7-1 to 11-4 over the last 10 days. Interesting bet with value (IMHO). Reform to poll 9% or more at 11-10. In the last 28 polls Reform have polled an average of 10.25%. Their leaked manifesto (these are easier to look great when you don't have a realistic chance of winning - ask the Libdems) will appeal to disenchanted voters from both major parties. And the better Reform do, the 'even more likely' it will be a Labour majority. Best odds 2-9.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on Feb 25, 2024 9:39:03 GMT
Away from the betting shops.
The Tories appear intent on stoking culture wars religion based division. Given the Trump types in their ranks this was always going to become ugly. Now the Tories have been forced to suspend their deputy chair Lee Anderson.
Very good article written in The Spectator (that left wing ragš¤)
24 Feb 2024 Coffee House Fraser NelsonFraser Nelson Sunak was right to suspend Lee Anderson 24 February 2024, 5:34pm
When Lee Anderson was made deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, it was on the understanding that heād explode now and again. Say something outrageous, cause a stir. The unelected Rishi Sunak had a wide conservative coalition to keep together and was mindful that, as a besuited Goldman Sachs alumnus, he may struggle to keep the right of the party (and the electorate) on board. Occasional outbursts from Suella Braverman and Lee Anderson were helpful: they were chaff and flares which would save him from incoming missiles from the right.
But Sunak is up against the strong centrifugal forces pulling conservatives further to the right. A great many politicians look at Trumpās success and think the future lies in being angry and setting up camp outside the Overton window. So they engage in what you might call vice signalling, the opposite of virtue signalling. They say murky stuff that they donāt necessarily believe, to establish their credentials as a truth-speaking bad boy (or girl), nemesis of the woke establishment, etc. Liz Trussās turn at CPAC last week is an example of this.
Such a tactic carries danger. It risks decency being left behind in pursuit of the idea that, if something is unsayable, then it has to be said. In telling GB News that Islamists have somehow āgot controlā of Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London and a Muslim, Lee Anderson crossed a line. Other Tories sensed this immediately and told Sunak theyād go public and call for Andersonās firing if No10 did not withdraw the whip. A far bigger blow-up was in prospect. Sunak sought to defuse this by asking Anderson to clarify or apologise. When he didnāt, he left Sunak with no choice.
A kind interpretation of this to say that Anderson was speaking more broadly. He was commenting on Suella Bravermanās recent Telegraph article, headlined āIslamists are bullying Britain into submission.ā He added his thoughts:-
I donāt actually believe that these Islamists have got control of our country. But what I do believe is theyāve got control of Khan and theyāve got control of London and theyāve got control of Starmer as well. We have seen the shocking scenes played out in parliament just a few nights back, where Starmer crumbled. He put pressure on the Speaker to alter the rules.
But his comment on Starmer, too, was disgusting. Starmer wanted to escape a trap set for him by the SNP, to dodge an embarrassing rebellion. He was acting in his political self-interest and it worked. To say is was somehow ācontrolledā by the Islamists is idiotic. Then Anderson then swung back to Sadiq Khan
People are just turning up in their thousands and doing anything they want and they are laughing at the police. And I feel absolutely disgusted. This stems with Khan. Heās actually given our capital city away to his mates.
The suggestion here was both idiotic and vile. What evidence is there to say that any of the Islamists who have been threatening Jews and MPs are āmatesā of ā or in any way linked to ā the Mayor of London? If this wasnāt what Anderson meant he had the chance to clarify. No10 urged him to. But he didnāt.
Anderson was not suspended for flagging the jihadi threat. His offence was to baselessly accuse a Muslim mayor of being ācontrolledā by jihadis
It took Sunak a while to reach his decision. After all, Anderson was his licensed Rottweiler for a while. The two would appear in videos where Sunak would talk about how much he loved the country ā it was as if Sunak was fishing for some rebel points. Andersonās previous explosions had included calling the BBC āa safe haven for pervertsā and saying small boat arrivals should be āput on a Royal Navy frigateā. This was why he was hired. But this time, if Sunak didnāt fire him he would face an open rebellion from other appalled Tory MPs (including Sajid Javid)ā and a wide-open split in his party.
To accuse anyone of being ācontrolledā by Islamists is not a charge to be made lightly when, just days ago, a slogan calling for genocide was beamed into the House of Commons. Inside it, MPs have been speaking about the the intimidation they feel from Islamists. So Anderson was not suspended for flagging the jihadi threat. His offence was to baselessly accuse a Muslim mayor of being ācontrolledā by jihadis ā and later, to refuse to apologise or clarify.
These often-ugly demonstrations are being approved by the police (not Sadiq Khan) because the law guarantees everyone in Britain the right to protest. The only legal grounds for refusing permission is that a protest would pose an unmeetable public order challenge: a very high bar (as it should be in a democracy). Suggesting that Sadiq Khan is approving the protests for anyone ā whether his mates or not ā is both dishonest and irresponsible (as Chris Hope pointed out in the GB News interview). But Anderson, I suspect, knew this.
Strategic outrage has long been a political tactic, but one that needs to be deployed rarely and judiciously. In 1978, Thatcher caused uproar by telling World In Action that āpeople are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different cultureā. It was helpful outrage in that it assured voters who were worried about immigration that she was on their side.
āIf you want good race relations, you have to allay peopleās fears on numbers. Thatās one the thing thatās driving some people to the National Front. Weāre a big political party. If we donāt want people to go to extremes ā and I donāt ā we ourselves must talk about this problem and show that we are prepared to deal with it.ā
As Charles Moore observes in his biography, her āswampedā comment ācaused widespread outrage in the broadsheet press and at Westminster and widespread approval in the countryā. If you watch 1979 election night coverage, you can see pundits who had been lined up to explain a National Front breakthrough. It never came: Thatcherās s-word was enough to say: āI understand your concern and. donāt think youāre racist.ā Her logic was vindicated. Her robust language and willingness to cause strategic outrage (even in her own ranks) killed support for the far-right. Labour is not exactly above this tactic: David Blunkett repeated it almost verbatim in 2002.
You get the idea. An insider with influence ā Anderson, Blunkett, Braverman ā positions the established party as radical by saying something outrageous. Anderson offered this. He started his tenure of deputy chairman with a Spectator interview supporting the death penalty, as about a third of voters do. But to pull this strategy off, there has to be a line of decency. When this strays into bigotry, racism or accusing ethnic-minority politicians of split loyalty territory, as Anderson did in GB News interview, it backfires.
The other factor is GB News, a channel that now gives the likes of Anderson a lot of air time and prides itself on having conversations too racy for terrestrial TV. In many cases it provides a much-needed corrective to homogenised TV debate, but the chances of conversation stepping over the line in such interview formats are high (as the Wooton/Fox debacle showed). The presenter closed the Lee Anderson interview by telling him: āyouāve had your Weetabix! Superb stuff!ā Itās hard to imagine Andrew Neil ending any of his interviews that way."
I thought it was good enough to copy here in full, as I suspect very few, if any, on this forum are subscribers.
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