The Weather

You coming back for good, Nobby?
I shouldn`t worry too much about the winters here.  While we do have the odd dodgy spell, you`re far more likely to see grey skies and endless rain, than icy roads and snow.

Yep, I'm finally coming home.

Never swapped them in the first place   While I've enjoyed watching the Eintracht they could never reach those same levels of emotional attachment you have with your first love.

Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time..By Matt McGrath, Environment correspondent.

Our overheating world is likely to break a key temperature limit for the first time over the next few years, scientists predict.

Researchers say there's now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027.

The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities plus the El Niño weather event expected this summer.

If the world passes the limit, scientists stress the breach, while worrying, will likely be temporary.

Hitting the threshold would mean the world is 1.5C warmer than it was during the second half of the 19th Century, before fossil fuel emissions from industrialisation really began to ramp up.

The 1.5C figure has become a symbol of global climate change negotiations. Countries agreed to "pursue efforts" to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C under the 2015 Paris agreement.

Going over 1.5C every year for a decade or two would see far greater impacts of warming, such as longer heatwaves, more intense storms and wildfires.

But passing the level in one of the next few years would not mean that the Paris limit had been broken. Scientists say there is still time to restrict global warming by cutting emissions sharply.

Since 2020 the World Meteorological Organisation has been giving an estimate of the chances of the world breaking the 1.5C threshold in any one year.

Back then they predicted there was less than a 20% chance of breaking 1.5C in the five years ahead.

By last year this had increased to 50%, and now it's jumped to 66%, which the scientists say means it's "more likely than not."

What does going over 1.5C mean?
The figure is not a direct measure of the world's temperature but an indicator of how much or how little the Earth has warmed or cooled compared to the long term global average.

Scientists use average temperature data from the period between 1850-1900 as a measure of how hot the world was before our modern reliance on coal, oil and gas.

For decades they believed that if the world warmed by around 2C that would be the threshold of dangerous impacts - but in 2018 they significantly revised this estimate, showing that going past 1.5C would be calamitous for the world.

Over the past few decades our overheating world has nudged the mercury up so that in 2016, the warmest on record, global temperatures were 1.28C above the pre-industrial figure.

Now researchers say that figure is set to be smashed - they are 98% certain the high mark will be broken before 2027.

And in the years between now and then they believe there's a very solid chance the 1.5C limit will be surpassed for the first time.

"We really are now within reach of a temporary exceedance of 1.5C for the annual mean temperature, and that's the first time in human history we've been that close," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasts at the Met Office, who compile the data from weather and climate agencies around the world.

"I think that's perhaps the most stark and obvious and simplest statistic that we've got in the report," he told a news conference.

The researchers stress that temperatures would have to stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years to be able to say the Paris agreement threshold had been passed.

However breaking the limit even for just one year is a worrying sign that warming is accelerating and not slowing down.

"This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years," said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas

"However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency," he said.

What difference will El Niño make?
There are two key elements - the first is the continuing high levels of carbon emissions from human activities that despite a fall during the pandemic are still going up.

The second, critical part is the likely appearance of El Niño, a weather phenomenon with global implications.

For the last three years the world has been experiencing a La Niña event which has dampened climate warming to some extent.

But the extra heat that El Niño will bring to the surface of the Pacific will likely push the global temperature to a new high next year.

However there is still uncertainty around the onset and scale of the event.

"It's worth noting that a lot of our forecasts that are being made now for the El Niño that we think is developing this winter, are showing pretty big amplitude," Prof Scaife told reporters.

"But to actually predict the magnitude, or a subsequent event within the five-year period, we can't give the exact dates of that beyond this one year ahead, so it could be in three or four years from now we get to two and a half degree El Niño and that might be the one that does it. "

What are the likely impacts in the UK and elsewhere?
The Arctic will experience warming at a greater level than many regions, with the temperature anomaly expected to be three times as large as the global figure over the next five northern hemisphere winters.

Northern Europe including the UK will likely experience increased rainfall for the May to September period over the next five years, the report says.

New health alert as weekend temperatures to hit 30C..(86F)..By Fiona Nimoni, BBC News.

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A heat-health alert has been issued for parts of England as temperatures are predicted to hit 30C (86F) over the weekend.

The alert is in place from 09:00 BST on Friday 9th June to 09:00 on Monday 12th June in London, the Midlands, eastern and southern England.

People are being asked to check on vulnerable friends and family.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says the health and social care sector could be impacted.

This first alert - graded yellow - means this weekend, predicted to be hotter than Ibiza and Madrid, could affect the vulnerable including the over-65s and those with an underlying health condition.

Dr Agostinho Sousa, head of extreme events and health protection at UKHSA, said: "In the coming days we are likely to experience our first sustained period of hot weather of the year so far, so it's important that everyone ensures they keep hydrated and cool while enjoying the sun.

"Forecasted temperatures this week will primarily impact those over the age of 65 or those with pre-existing health conditions such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

"If you have friends, family or neighbours who you know are more vulnerable to the effects of hot weather, it is important you check in on them."

It really has become the world of the snowflake hasn't it.

Weekend hot weather alert escalated to amber..By Michael Sheils McNamee, BBC News.

A weekend heat-health alert has been raised from yellow to a more severe amber warning in eastern and southern England, and the Midlands.

The amber alert - in place from 09:00 BST on Friday - indicates high temperatures could affect all ages and impact the health service.

The alert, issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), continues until 09:00 BST on Monday.

Temperatures are forecast to hit 30C and some thunderstorms are expected.

A less severe yellow alert, which advises people to check on vulnerable family and friends, is in place for the north of England and London.

The UKHSA first issued a heat alert on Wednesday, but raised it saying the temperatures would rise rapidly in affected areas with temperatures high overnight.

Climate change is making heatwaves in the UK more likely and more extreme.

Last year was the UK's warmest ever - Coningsby, in Lincolnshire, reached a record 40.3C on 19 July.

The UKHSA expects heatwaves are "likely to occur more often, be more intense and last longer in the years and decades ahead".

The new colour-coded alert system, launched last week, is run by the UKHSA and the Met Office and is aimed at reducing illness and deaths among the most vulnerable.

There is one further alert, not yet issued, representing the most serious risk. The red alert means there is a significant risk to life even for healthy people and a severe impact likely across all sectors.

but when can i cut my lawn?

Stuffed there... don't drink Cider( it's sh88e). Other option can be used...also I don't have a sit on mower...as for a raincoat....I have never ever flashed at anybody and have no intention of doing so..sounds like I need to concrete the lawn over