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Post by Nobbygas on May 12, 2023 13:00:20 GMT
It appears that the Russians have put weaker units on the flanks around Bahkmut to hold the flanks while the stronger units centrally kept trying to take Bahkmut. The Ukrainians have recognised this and have applied pressure to the flanks resulting in the weaker units quite literally collapsing and retreating. The Wagner troops in the centre will now have to withdraw as they will be in danger of encirclement. Personally I don't believe this is the planned Ukrainian offensive but a 'Brucie Bonus'. I am surprised that the Ukes didnt push the Russian troops away from the roads entering Bahkmut from the west a long time ago,the Uke transport has been running the gauntlet and they must have taken big losses there. Seems like that battle has been one of attrition, both sides trying to cause mass casualties to their enemies like Verdun. I read somewhere that the front is 900 miles long ? the Russians cant defend that in strength, maybe have 'fire brigade' units poised to counter attack any Uke breakthrough ? I don't think it was a problem for the Ukes to get men and supplies to Bahkmut. I know for a fact that units have been rotated in/out. Even Zelensky visited the place about three weeks ago. One of the problems the Russians face is their military doctrine. It has been developed to only include advancing. They have just not trained or are not prepared, for defence. It's a concept they never envisaged. We can see that they have developed some static defenses in places, but a modern arm will just turn these places into death traps for the defenders. History has already shown that static defenses just don't really work. Do the Russians have a QRF capability behind the front line? They may have it but will it be any good?
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Post by Nobbygas on May 12, 2023 13:04:32 GMT
Unverified accounts of Ukrainian forces (from a pro Kremlin war correspondent) on the move and regaining ground in the Bahkmut area,and that Ruskies are abandoning previously held positions, Western supplied tanks and armour seen on transporters heading toward the eastern front line ...๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ I saw the reports of Western tanks on low loaders seen on the northern Kharkov ring road, the border is only about 25 miles from Kharkov if the Ukes crossed the border towards Belgorod on the Moscow road it will escalate things. tbh though some of these reports could be red herrings or maybe movements of armour to draw Russian forces to that area. It's all misinformation. However, the Ukes will not cross the border into Russian with tanks.....but then again? How about this scenario. Ukraine cross the border. Russia responds with a tactical nuclear weapon. This will bring in NATO, who will destroy the Russian military. That's a big win for Ukraine. I have no doubt that someone somewhere has war-gammed this.
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trymer
Joined: November 2018
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 14:16:51 GMT
I am surprised that the Ukes didnt push the Russian troops away from the roads entering Bahkmut from the west a long time ago,the Uke transport has been running the gauntlet and they must have taken big losses there. Seems like that battle has been one of attrition, both sides trying to cause mass casualties to their enemies like Verdun. I read somewhere that the front is 900 miles long ? the Russians cant defend that in strength, maybe have 'fire brigade' units poised to counter attack any Uke breakthrough ? I don't think it was a problem for the Ukes to get men and supplies to Bahkmut. I know for a fact that units have been rotated in/out. Even Zelensky visited the place about three weeks ago. One of the problems the Russians face is their military doctrine. It has been developed to only include advancing. They have just not trained or are not prepared, for defence. It's a concept they never envisaged. We can see that they have developed some static defenses in places, but a modern arm will just turn these places into death traps for the defenders. History has already shown that static defenses just don't really work. Do the Russians have a QRF capability behind the front line? They may have it but will it be any good? Yes the Ukes were getting men into Bakhmut and I think that was what the Russians wanted,for the Ukes to keep pushing men into the meat grinder, could the Russians have cut the roads ? maybe they could but maybe they didnt want to,we will only know when the history books are written, the casualty ratio figures will be interesting. I agree that the Russians fight a very aggressive war,lots of artillery and rocket bombardments not worrying about civilian casualties, attacking without caring about the losses as long as they win. Western commanders would have to keep their eye on the casualty list because our societies would not put up with huge losses,Montgomery knew that in Normandy and NW Europe campaign and its still true.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 14:28:58 GMT
I saw the reports of Western tanks on low loaders seen on the northern Kharkov ring road, the border is only about 25 miles from Kharkov if the Ukes crossed the border towards Belgorod on the Moscow road it will escalate things. tbh though some of these reports could be red herrings or maybe movements of armour to draw Russian forces to that area. It's all misinformation. However, the Ukes will not cross the border into Russian with tanks.....but then again? How about this scenario. Ukraine cross the border. Russia responds with a tactical nuclear weapon. This will bring in NATO, who will destroy the Russian military. That's a big win for Ukraine. I have no doubt that someone somewhere has war-gammed this. I have been watching the weather forecast for Kharkov area,its been mixed but higher temperatures now must be drying the mud out,and it will need to be dry for Leopards and Challenger 2 and Abrams ( if Abrams is there in anything but token force ). I have wondered about that scenario,I wonder if Russia would use tactical nukes ? if the Ukes cross the border they would surely be tempted but i think that they are playing a longer game, they will weaponise the grain again and keep hoping that the Western alliance starts to disintegrate. In your scenario the next step would be Russia launching strategic nuclear weapons because that would be their only way of 'winning'.
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Post by Nobbygas on May 12, 2023 14:35:35 GMT
I don't think it was a problem for the Ukes to get men and supplies to Bahkmut. I know for a fact that units have been rotated in/out. Even Zelensky visited the place about three weeks ago. One of the problems the Russians face is their military doctrine. It has been developed to only include advancing. They have just not trained or are not prepared, for defence. It's a concept they never envisaged. We can see that they have developed some static defenses in places, but a modern arm will just turn these places into death traps for the defenders. History has already shown that static defenses just don't really work. Do the Russians have a QRF capability behind the front line? They may have it but will it be any good? Yes the Ukes were getting men into Bakhmut and I think that was what the Russians wanted,for the Ukes to keep pushing men into the meat grinder, could the Russians have cut the roads ? maybe they could but maybe they didnt want to,we will only know when the history books are written, the casualty ratio figures will be interesting. No, the roads have not been cut. Both of the flanks (or pincers) that were threatening Bahkmut are both in full retreat apparently.
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Post by Nobbygas on May 12, 2023 14:36:54 GMT
It's all misinformation. However, the Ukes will not cross the border into Russian with tanks.....but then again? How about this scenario. Ukraine cross the border. Russia responds with a tactical nuclear weapon. This will bring in NATO, who will destroy the Russian military. That's a big win for Ukraine. I have no doubt that someone somewhere has war-gammed this. I have been watching the weather forecast for Kharkov area,its been mixed but higher temperatures now must be drying the mud out,and it will need to be dry for Leopards and Challenger 2 and Abrams ( if Abrams is there in anything but token force ). I have wondered about that scenario,I wonder if Russia would use tactical nukes ? if the Ukes cross the border they would surely be tempted but i think that they are playing a longer game, they will weaponise the grain again and keep hoping that the Western alliance starts to disintegrate. In your scenario the next step would be Russia launching strategic nuclear weapons because that would be their only way of 'winning'. Seriously, I don't think the Ukes will cross the border......except for sneaky beaky stuff.
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trymer
Joined: November 2018
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 14:38:05 GMT
Yes the Ukes were getting men into Bakhmut and I think that was what the Russians wanted,for the Ukes to keep pushing men into the meat grinder, could the Russians have cut the roads ? maybe they could but maybe they didnt want to,we will only know when the history books are written, the casualty ratio figures will be interesting. No, the roads have not been cut. Both of the flanks (or pincers) that were threatening Bahkmut are both in full retreat apparently. Yes I know,I was wondering if the Russians could have cut them over the last few weeks/months if they had wanted to or did they purposely leave them open ?
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trymer
Joined: November 2018
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 14:39:43 GMT
I have been watching the weather forecast for Kharkov area,its been mixed but higher temperatures now must be drying the mud out,and it will need to be dry for Leopards and Challenger 2 and Abrams ( if Abrams is there in anything but token force ). I have wondered about that scenario,I wonder if Russia would use tactical nukes ? if the Ukes cross the border they would surely be tempted but i think that they are playing a longer game, they will weaponise the grain again and keep hoping that the Western alliance starts to disintegrate. In your scenario the next step would be Russia launching strategic nuclear weapons because that would be their only way of 'winning'. Seriously, I don't think the Ukes will cross the border......except for sneaky beaky stuff. I hope that you are right, it doesnt leave much room for an attack in the Kharkov area as it is only 25 miles or so to the border.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 14:46:50 GMT
North Korea is always having food supply problems,imagine if Russia exchanges massive amounts of grain etc for 50,000 North Korean 'volunteers' and equipment to fight in Ukraine.
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Post by Nobbygas on May 12, 2023 14:48:44 GMT
North Korea is always having food supply problems,imagine if Russia exchanges massive amounts of grain etc for 50,000 North Korean 'volunteers' and equipment to fight in Ukraine. Don't think that will make much difference. Russia would have to supply them, and as we know, Russia logistics is very poor. Plus, who are to say the NK's are any good?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 12, 2023 15:01:25 GMT
North Korea is always having food supply problems,imagine if Russia exchanges massive amounts of grain etc for 50,000 North Korean 'volunteers' and equipment to fight in Ukraine. Don't think that will make much difference. Russia would have to supply them, and as we know, Russia logistics is very poor. Plus, who are to say the NK's are any good? The Russian logistics do seem poor. tbh we dont know if the North Koreans would be good, 50,000 troops would make a difference if they were used in a Russian offensive,maybe towards Kiev as they could be supplied from Byelorussia. At the moment I am reading about the Korean war,interesting to see how the attacking North Koreans and then the Chinese frightened the Americans and chased them down the peninsula ( honourable exception USMC and allies in the northeast of the country)...to be fair the Americans were very poorly prepared and trained in the first weeks of the war.
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Ukraine
May 14, 2023 8:57:32 GMT
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Post by lostinspace on May 14, 2023 8:57:32 GMT
In a rather pathetic stance or seemingly arrogance...the invader attacked the home town of the Eurovision singers from Ukraine as they took the stage and during their performance,and also the capital....just sad pathetic bully boys who can't get their own way..
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 14, 2023 13:38:26 GMT
I saw a video of the explosions in Khmelnytskyi (I Googled it, its in western Ukraine) whatever was there was very explosive. I think that Russia might be continuing missile and drone attacks on Kiev and Kharkov so that anti missile defences have to be kept there,then they can attack places that are important targets without their missiles being intercepted and destroyed. The bonus to this is using up the Patriot missiles etc as these take time to replace and cost a bomb (sorry) also keeps the work force in the target cities from getting a nights sleep.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 14, 2023 13:40:48 GMT
In a rather pathetic stance or seemingly arrogance...the invader attacked the home town of the Eurovision singers from Ukraine as they took the stage and during their performance,and also the capital....just sad pathetic bully boys who can't get their own way.. Possibly showing that they can hit targets wherever they want to ? not a fan of targeting cities with bombing raids and missiles but its been happening since WW1.
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Post by Nobbygas on May 15, 2023 8:17:38 GMT
In a rather pathetic stance or seemingly arrogance...the invader attacked the home town of the Eurovision singers from Ukraine as they took the stage and during their performance,and also the capital....just sad pathetic bully boys who can't get their own way.. Possibly showing that they can hit targets wherever they want to ? not a fan of targeting cities with bombing raids and missiles but its been happening since WW1. I hope this doesn't come across as being callous, but the military mindset would be happy (if that's the word) that the Russians are wasting vital weapons on what are essentially non-threatening targets. They really should be targeting military targets. It's not looking good for the Russians around Bakhmut.
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oldie
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Post by oldie on May 15, 2023 9:04:58 GMT
Possibly showing that they can hit targets wherever they want to ?ย not a fan of targeting cities with bombing raids and missiles but its been happening sinceย WW1. I hope this doesn't come across as being callous, but the military mindset would be happy (if that's the word) that the Russians are wasting vital weapons on what are essentially non-threatening targets. They really should be targeting military targets. It's not looking good for the Russians around Bakhmut. Amateur hour here from me, but wasn't that the same mistake the Nazis made in WW2 after the initial attacks?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 15, 2023 15:05:34 GMT
Possibly showing that they can hit targets wherever they want to ? not a fan of targeting cities with bombing raids and missiles but its been happening since WW1. I hope this doesn't come across as being callous, but the military mindset would be happy (if that's the word) that the Russians are wasting vital weapons on what are essentially non-threatening targets. They really should be targeting military targets. It's not looking good for the Russians around Bakhmut. War is callous.....you are right about the military thinking its more important to hit military targets but there is more involved in wars than the military now,public opinion and propaganda for instance. Look at the Dambuster raid from a military point of view the damage was negligible (maybe even an own goal with aircraft and the top aircrews lost) but from a propaganda point it was a complete success,even talked about now.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 15, 2023 15:12:21 GMT
Possibly showing that they can hit targets wherever they want to ? not a fan of targeting cities with bombing raids and missiles but its been happening since WW1. It's not looking good for the Russians around Bakhmut. The Ukrainians pushing the Russians back from the roads coming into Bakhmut will stop attacks on supply convoys and incoming troops. I wonder if the Russians would pull back from the city but strengthen their flanks ? that could make a salient that could be pinched off in a pincer movement IF the Russians could get enough troops into position. On the other hand if the Ukes could exploit their attacks they could make a big hole in the Russian line.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on May 17, 2023 7:35:58 GMT
Conflicting news stories about the missile / drone attacks on Kiev, one says that the Patriot missile systems destroyed Russian hypersonic missiles,another that a Patriot system was damaged or destroyed. I still believe that these attacks are to make sure the Ukes have to keep the Patriot systems around Kiev and this will leave their spring offensive concentration areas and supply dumps vulnerable to missile attack....the answer would be more Patriot systems.
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Post by Nobbygas on May 17, 2023 8:50:08 GMT
Conflicting news stories about the missile / drone attacks on Kiev, one says that the Patriot missile systems destroyed Russian hypersonic missiles,another that a Patriot system was damaged or destroyed. I still believe that these attacks are to make sure the Ukes have to keep the Patriot systems around Kiev and this will leave their spring offensive concentration areas and supply dumps vulnerable to missile attack....the answer would be more Patriot systems. The Patriot system is not just one unit/vehicle. It comprises multiple units which would be widely dispersed. I suspect parts of it were damaged but it is highly unlikely the whole system was destroyed. Whether that damage makes it un-operational or not we'll not be told. I suspect that the radar unit would have been hit, as any system like this gives it's position away when the radar is activated in the hope that they hit anything heading towards it. With a large system like Patriot it's not easy to keep moving location, so the Russians may have been getting the location over a number of days. However lessons learnt and all that, and the US will be looking at how the Russian weapon got through and will take steps/upgrades to stop it happening again.
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