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Post by Nobbygas on Mar 17, 2023 11:42:57 GMT
OK, let's get technical. The Kornet uses a Line-Of-Sight Beam Riding (LOSBR) for guidance. This means a laser beam has to be on the target for the missile to track and hit. The 8k range only works if you have an 8k line-of-sight. Pretty rare. It can also be difficult if the target is moving. It requires training to use correctly. Are the Russians trained properly in how to use it? What are the Ukes going to do with the AMX RC10? I'm pretty sure they'll use them to fire things that go bang. Why do Ukraine need tanks? They are fighting for their very survival. They'll accept any weapons systems they can get their hands on. Well the Iraqi army and Hezbollah were trained to use Kornet. 8 Km is maximum range but there are some wide open spaces in Ukraine which the German tank destroyers used to good effect in WW2. If they try and use them off road in Ukranian mud the thing going bang will be an AMX RC10,sitting target stuck up to its axles, still the French military are replacing them with Jaguar so they probably need to get rid of the old AMX. The Ukes have a lot of men and equipment on 'overwatch' facing Belarus and the North East. Systems like the AMX can be used in that role thereby freeing up the existing Uke equipment to be moved South. You cannot really compare WW2 with the modern systems. The Iraqi Army and Hezbollah didn't destroy many did they. Off the top of my head I think the US lost just the one Abrams in Iraq and that was due to an IED.
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trymer
Joined: November 2018
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Post by trymer on Mar 17, 2023 11:43:07 GMT
I agree with Nobby re tanks from the point of view that Putin has run this war with mid 20th Century tactics from a time when tanks were important in battle. He is basically throwing young ill trained conscripts as cannon fodder into the front line and using the mercenaries of Wagner as the main forward thrust. He seems happy to lose thousands even hundreds of thousands in his vanity project. It will be interesting to see what happens when the flow of tanks, and as is being reported jets, arrive in Ukraine. So you think that the war in Ukraine will be over quite quickly now that tanks are arriving ?
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Post by Nobbygas on Mar 17, 2023 11:50:31 GMT
I agree with Nobby re tanks from the point of view that Putin has run this war with mid 20th Century tactics from a time when tanks were important in battle. He is basically throwing young ill trained conscripts as cannon fodder into the front line and using the mercenaries of Wagner as the main forward thrust. He seems happy to lose thousands even hundreds of thousands in his vanity project. It will be interesting to see what happens when the flow of tanks, and as is being reported jets, arrive in Ukraine. So you think that the war in Ukraine will be over quite quickly now that tanks are arriving ? I think it will be over quicker. Don't know about quickly. The question is just where will the Ukes strike. The key here is intel and planning. The Ukes are obviously receiving first class intel from their allies and every Tom, Dick and Harriet on the ground who have a mobile phone! What is the quality of the Russian intel? Judging by their initial invasion you've got to say, "not very good".
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trymer
Joined: November 2018
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Post by trymer on Mar 17, 2023 12:03:45 GMT
Well the Iraqi army and Hezbollah were trained to use Kornet. 8 Km is maximum range but there are some wide open spaces in Ukraine which the German tank destroyers used to good effect in WW2. If they try and use them off road in Ukranian mud the thing going bang will be an AMX RC10,sitting target stuck up to its axles, still the French military are replacing them with Jaguar so they probably need to get rid of the old AMX. The Ukes have a lot of men and equipment on 'overwatch' facing Belarus and the North East. Systems like the AMX can be used in that role thereby freeing up the existing Uke equipment to be moved South. You cannot really compare WW2 with the modern systems. The Iraqi Army and Hezbollah didn't destroy many did they. Off the top of my head I think the US lost just the one Abrams in Iraq and that was due to an IED. Yes the AMX can do something in the right conditions its true,if things blow up in France Macron may regret giving them away. Yes its not the same as WW2 technology has moved on but 8Km remains 8Km and there are some flat open spaces in Ukraine and thats still true,once they called that cavalry country, later tank country, now missile country ? Hezbollah have had success against Merkova,not sure if they have come up against Abrams ? but they must have been trained to use Kornet. I think that Abrams losses in (2nd) Iraq war are in double figures,they think that 2 could have been destroyed by Kornet but the Russians deny having sold them to Iraq......Abrams probably not the right tank for Ukraine except for propaganda purposes.
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Cheshiregas
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Post by Cheshiregas on Mar 17, 2023 12:11:14 GMT
I agree with Nobby re tanks from the point of view that Putin has run this war with mid 20th Century tactics from a time when tanks were important in battle. He is basically throwing young ill trained conscripts as cannon fodder into the front line and using the mercenaries of Wagner as the main forward thrust. He seems happy to lose thousands even hundreds of thousands in his vanity project. It will be interesting to see what happens when the flow of tanks, and as is being reported jets, arrive in Ukraine. So you think that the war in Ukraine will be over quite quickly now that tanks are arriving ? No, can't see where I said that. I agree with Nobby that it will accelerate the process. The Ukrainians have proven themselves to be hardy and adept at learning about new kit quickly. They have belief on their side. They are fighting for a cause. Wagner are fighting for money, Russian conscripts out of fear. The only real weapons Putin has are fear, destruction of infrastructure and civilians from afar, and nuclear capability. The game changer could be if China decide to wade in with support. If they see Putin can win in Ukraine, they will look to test the water with Taiwan further, as they have been. It's a fine balance for them.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 17, 2023 12:14:26 GMT
So you think that the war in Ukraine will be over quite quickly now that tanks are arriving ? I think it will be over quicker. Don't know about quickly. The question is just where will the Ukes strike. The key here is intel and planning. The Ukes are obviously receiving first class intel from their allies and every Tom, Dick and Harriet on the ground who have a mobile phone! What is the quality of the Russian intel? Judging by their initial invasion you've got to say, "not very good". I agree that it will be interesting to see where the Ukranians attack,maybe Kharkiv area....as you say it depends on what their intelligence. Looking at Russias wars since Napoleonic times they are usually (not always) chaotic at first and always seem to be prepared to accept very heavy casualties,you made a point the other day about attackers generally losing more than defenders and I agree,Russia had many more casualties at the battle of the Alma than the allies did even though the Russians had strong defensive positions,that isnt exceptional for Russia they will lose thousands to take a position. In 1812,in Finland in 1939, in 1941 the Russians had huge casualties many more than any other country could accept and still ended up on the winning side. I still think that there will be a negotiated peace,even if it goes on for years like in Korea.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 17, 2023 12:20:50 GMT
So you think that the war in Ukraine will be over quite quickly now that tanks are arriving ? No, can't see where I said that. I agree with Nobby that it will accelerate the process. The Ukrainians have proven themselves to be hardy and adept at learning about new kit quickly. They have belief on their side. They are fighting for a cause. Wagner are fighting for money, Russian conscripts out of fear. The only real weapons Putin has are fear, destruction of infrastructure and civilians from afar, and nuclear capability. The game changer could be if China decide to wade in with support. If they see Putin can win in Ukraine, they will look to test the water with Taiwan further, as they have been. It's a fine balance for them. Russia isnt fighting to anywhere near its capabilities yet. The Ukranians are fighting on their own land,soldiers usually fight hard against invaders (hence the allies atom bombing Japan),eventually though superior numbers will win as in WW2,and as you say Putin has nuclear weapons so if he needed to a neutron bomb will stop any real break through. Not sure that China would want the sanctions against them that Russia has,if the West stops buying Chinese made goods their economy would collapse and they dont have oil/gas like Russia has.
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Cheshiregas
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Post by Cheshiregas on Mar 17, 2023 12:32:38 GMT
No, can't see where I said that. I agree with Nobby that it will accelerate the process. The Ukrainians have proven themselves to be hardy and adept at learning about new kit quickly. They have belief on their side. They are fighting for a cause. Wagner are fighting for money, Russian conscripts out of fear. The only real weapons Putin has are fear, destruction of infrastructure and civilians from afar, and nuclear capability. The game changer could be if China decide to wade in with support. If they see Putin can win in Ukraine, they will look to test the water with Taiwan further, as they have been. It's a fine balance for them. Russia isnt fighting to anywhere near its capabilities yet. The Ukranians are fighting on their own land,soldiers usually fight hard against invaders (hence the allies atom bombing Japan),eventually though superior numbers will win as in WW2,and as you say Putin has nuclear weapons so if he needed to a neutron bomb will stop any real break through. Not sure that China would want the sanctions against them that Russia has,if the West stops buying Chinese made goods their economy would collapse and they dont have oil/gas like Russia has. If you have such confidence in the Russian war machine, why then are they holding back? Surely they have nothing to lose by going all out and shortening the illegal war?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 17, 2023 13:26:23 GMT
Russia isnt fighting to anywhere near its capabilities yet. The Ukranians are fighting on their own land,soldiers usually fight hard against invaders (hence the allies atom bombing Japan),eventually though superior numbers will win as in WW2,and as you say Putin has nuclear weapons so if he needed to a neutron bomb will stop any real break through. Not sure that China would want the sanctions against them that Russia has,if the West stops buying Chinese made goods their economy would collapse and they dont have oil/gas like Russia has. If you have such confidence in the Russian war machine, why then are they holding back? Surely they have nothing to lose by going all out and shortening the illegal war? De-stabilisation,the longer the war goes on the more people in the USA and Europe are getting sick of it and the effects of sanctions. Gradually people in the USA are turning against the war,De Santis has noticed this and got on the bandwagon (think Boris Johnson turning pro Brexit once he thought that Out would win ) now if there was a Republican win in 2024 with an 'America first' policy wouldnt that suit Russia ? Look at Europe,there will be big protests this spring against ruling governments because a lot of people are feeling the pinch,mainly because sanctions have adversely effected their own economies,an upsurge in populist goverments and another win for Russia. Sanctions mean that Russia has been selling more oil to India bringing them even closer together and making the West and India further apart,good for Russia. Think back before this war and Russia was always sending military aircraft into other countries airspaces and causing fighters to be sent to intercept,why was that ? Russia will keep this up,not letting grain out of the Black sea,threat of famine in Africa...turn off gas to this or that country,always causing problems and influencing affairs,then they can cosy up to some countries,lots of African countries seem to prefer Russia to USA or Europe.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 18, 2023 10:02:22 GMT
Talking to some of the non British women (Slovakian and Hungarian ) in my Pilates group and they see things differently to most of the British people that I talk too, the non Brits seem convinced that USA are fighting a proxy war and dont want peace.
Apparently Slovakia are giving Ukraine their MIG 29s....they have been grounded since last summer because of lack of spare parts from Russia due to sanctions....the EU are going to massively compensate Slovakia....and the Slovakian air force will replace the MIGS with the American F16....another financial bonanza for American arms makers $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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oldie
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Ukraine
Mar 18, 2023 13:01:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by oldie on Mar 18, 2023 13:01:33 GMT
If you have such confidence in the Russian war machine, why then are they holding back? Surely they have nothing to lose by going all out and shortening the illegal war? De-stabilisation,the longer the war goes on the more people in the USA and Europe are getting sick of it and the effects of sanctions. Gradually people in the USA are turning against the war,De Santis has noticed this and got on the bandwagon (think Boris Johnson turning pro Brexit once he thought that Out would win ) now if there was a Republican win in 2024 with an 'America first' policy wouldnt that suit Russia ? Look at Europe,there will be big protests this spring against ruling governments because a lot of people are feeling the pinch,mainly because sanctions have adversely effected their own economies,an upsurge in populist goverments and another win for Russia. Sanctions mean that Russia has been selling more oil to India bringing them even closer together and making the West and India further apart,good for Russia. Think back before this war and Russia was always sending military aircraft into other countries airspaces and causing fighters to be sent to intercept,why was that ? Russia will keep this up,not letting grain out of the Black sea,threat of famine in Africa...turn off gas to this or that country,always causing problems and influencing affairs,then they can cosy up to some countries,lots of African countries seem to prefer Russia to USA or Europe. You do know the size of the Russian economy as measured by GDP?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 19, 2023 10:18:24 GMT
"Maybe the Russians are using Bakhmut as a Verdun type battle of attrition where the Russians are prepared to lose men as long as the Ukrainians lose the same amount which they cant afford to do." - reports I have seen indicate that the casualty rate is about 1:7 in favour of the Ukes in the Bakhmur area. Defenders usually take far less casualties than the attackers. I have also seen the 1 to 7 casualty figure,I doubt that it is true but even if it were the Russians are losing ex convicts and half trained conscripts,the Ukrainians are losing their front line troops,in other words the Russians can afford to take high casualties (they always have in their wars) the Ukranians cant. Have a look at the Overland campaign where Grant (not a clever general and a drunkard) lost many more casualties than his opponents but again his casualties were easily replaced the Confederates couldnt replace their's. Reading about (ex) LtCol Anatoli kupol's comments regarding Ukranian losses in Bakhmut,says his unit suffered massive casualties,new troops are poorly trained,Bakhmut shouldnt have defended for so long. I was thinking about reports last year of Ukranian men of fighting age being dragged out of cars on the Polish border and press ganged into the military,I wonder how much training they got, LtCol Kupol says that all his trained soldiers are now dead.
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Cheshiregas
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Post by Cheshiregas on Mar 19, 2023 15:05:35 GMT
I have also seen the 1 to 7 casualty figure,I doubt that it is true but even if it were the Russians are losing ex convicts and half trained conscripts,the Ukrainians are losing their front line troops,in other words the Russians can afford to take high casualties (they always have in their wars) the Ukranians cant. Have a look at the Overland campaign where Grant (not a clever general and a drunkard) lost many more casualties than his opponents but again his casualties were easily replaced the Confederates couldnt replace their's. Reading about (ex) LtCol Anatoli kupol's comments regarding Ukranian losses in Bakhmut,says his unit suffered massive casualties,new troops are poorly trained,Bakhmut shouldnt have defended for so long. I was thinking about reports last year of Ukranian men of fighting age being dragged out of cars on the Polish border and press ganged into the military,I wonder how much training they got, LtCol Kupol says that all his trained soldiers are now dead. Be interested to read about that Trymer. Do you have any Press Association or independent reports of that? The only one I could find was by a so called 'freelance journalist' Manny Marota who was quoted as working on the invasion but actually fled as soon as the invasion happened. His reports weren't independently verified or other witnesses found or quoted. His other claim to fame is being barred from writing an article to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Hitler's election. Plenty about Russian men fleeing, as we saw on all stations at the time, and being stopped at the closed borders. Don't recall Ukraine closing its borders other than to Russia and Belarus....
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 19, 2023 15:53:11 GMT
Reading about (ex) LtCol Anatoli kupol's comments regarding Ukranian losses in Bakhmut,says his unit suffered massive casualties,new troops are poorly trained,Bakhmut shouldnt have defended for so long. I was thinking about reports last year of Ukranian men of fighting age being dragged out of cars on the Polish border and press ganged into the military,I wonder how much training they got, LtCol Kupol says that all his trained soldiers are now dead. Be interested to read about that Trymer. Do you have any Press Association or independent reports of that? The only one I could find was by a so called 'freelance journalist' Manny Marota who was quoted as working on the invasion but actually fled as soon as the invasion happened. His reports weren't independently verified or other witnesses found or quoted. His other claim to fame is being barred from writing an article to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Hitler's election. Plenty about Russian men fleeing, as we saw on all stations at the time, and being stopped at the closed borders. Don't recall Ukraine closing its borders other than to Russia and Belarus.... Ukranian men of 'fighting age' (18-60) were banned from leaving Ukraine in February 2022....CNN 24.2.22.....Washingto Post 9.3.2022....New York Post 25.2.2022....Guardian....(.3.2022....BBC 7.3.2022. It was covered on news reports on Radio 4 a lot last February mainly on the Polish borders.....you only have to google it.
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Ukraine
Mar 19, 2023 16:48:29 GMT
via mobile
Post by lostinspace on Mar 19, 2023 16:48:29 GMT
Be interested to read about that Trymer. Do you have any Press Association or independent reports of that? The only one I could find was by a so called 'freelance journalist' Manny Marota who was quoted as working on the invasion but actually fled as soon as the invasion happened. His reports weren't independently verified or other witnesses found or quoted. His other claim to fame is being barred from writing an article to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Hitler's election. Plenty about Russian men fleeing, as we saw on all stations at the time, and being stopped at the closed borders. Don't recall Ukraine closing its borders other than to Russia and Belarus.... Ukranian men of 'fighting age' (18-60) were banned from leaving Ukraine in February 2022....CNN 24.2.22.....Washingto Post 9.3.2022....New York Post 25.2.2022....Guardian....(.3.2022....BBC 7.3.2022. It was covered on news reports on Radio 4 a lot last February mainly on the Polish borders.....you only have to google it. To be fair,that was (at least to my knowledge) open news, but interesting to see several men ( Ukrainian) of that age group in our area, assuming that they have traveled to the UK with their family to get away from the conflict
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 19, 2023 17:08:38 GMT
Ukranian men of 'fighting age' (18-60) were banned from leaving Ukraine in February 2022....CNN 24.2.22.....Washingto Post 9.3.2022....New York Post 25.2.2022....Guardian....(.3.2022....BBC 7.3.2022. It was covered on news reports on Radio 4 a lot last February mainly on the Polish borders.....you only have to google it. To be fair,that was (at least to my knowledge) open news, but interesting to see several men ( Ukrainian) of that age group in our area, assuming that they have traveled to the UK with their family to get away from the conflict I Googled mobilization in Ukraine and it seems like martial law came into effect 25.2.22 and that included banning men of 18-60 from leaving Ukraine,I dont understand why women without children were allowed to leave but women with previous military experience had to stay there. Could it be that the Ukrainian men that you have seen left Ukraine before 25.2.22 ? maybe they were exempt due to medical condition ? there were always going to be some getting across borders away from border crossing checkpoints,some reports of people paying to get into Romania, and merchant navy men can always jump ship in a foriegn port.
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Cheshiregas
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Post by Cheshiregas on Mar 21, 2023 11:27:54 GMT
Ukraine were upfront about men in an age grouping being banned from leaving the country. As you would expect for a nation that is facing an illegal aggressive invasion of their sovereign territory. I still can't find anything about men being dragged from cars, bar one dodgy freelance journalist running away whilst other journalists stayed.
You say 'I don't understand why women without children were allowed'. So you are happy for non-combatants not to be given the chance to leave, to be targeted and bombed [as Russia has targeted civilians, hospitals and infrastructure to drive down morale] or I presume you mean for equality sake they should be conscripted to be sent to the front to fight like the men and if necessary be killed? You do know women are volunteering for just that...
Even the Russians haven't quite gone that far yet.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 21, 2023 15:25:27 GMT
Ukraine were upfront about men in an age grouping being banned from leaving the country. As you would expect for a nation that is facing an illegal aggressive invasion of their sovereign territory. You previously said that you didnt remember the border being closed but you now seem to accept that it was closed to men between 18 and 60 ?
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 21, 2023 15:28:04 GMT
I still can't find anything about men being dragged from cars, bar one dodgy freelance journalist running away whilst other journalists stayed. Was reported on BBC radio 4 at the time,they probably said 'removed' or 'taken' from cars,I remember them interviewing women who's husbands had been stopped from leaving Ukraine.
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trymer
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Post by trymer on Mar 21, 2023 15:34:25 GMT
You say 'I don't understand why women without children were allowed'. So you are happy for non-combatants not to be given the chance to leave, to be targeted and bombed [as Russia has targeted civilians, hospitals and infrastructure to drive down morale] or I presume you mean for equality sake they should be conscripted to be sent to the front to fight like the men and if necessary be killed? You do know women are volunteering for just that... Well the men were non-combatants too until they were pressed. Yes,women are equal to men (sorry if that upsets you) in many countries they have front line combat roles,if men can be conscripted so should women unless they have children. Not all of the men who were conscripted would go to the front line,the older ones probably have support roles I dont see why women cant do the same,dont you think that women are up to that ?
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