ast1
Joined: August 2014
Posts: 13 
|
Post by ast1 on Aug 20, 2014 16:07:12 GMT
No gashead wants to be in this league but unfortunately we are. I fear it could be for a while too. Pre-season didn't look great and we have had a bad 1st 3 results, with performances below what was expected but looking at the history of relegated teams we could be here for a while. I don't know the stats but few teams bounce straight back. A mate of mine is a Carlisle fan and they managed it however by the end of the season when they actually went down they were an improving side who had a terrible start to the season, they were too far adrift to recover, they stayed together and came back up. Many other relegated teams have remained in the conference or gone out of business.
Rovers went down because they were a poor team, any half decent players have now gone and we are left with what we have plus the new recruits. Even if this team does turn out to be a promotion challenging group I think it will naturally take time.
I am not convinced by the players or by Clarke at the moment but time will tell. Clarke's changing the team cannot help as I think we need consistency, you would have hoped that he would know his best 11. There is not surprisingly a lot of negativity around at the moment but we should try and be positive, constant changes have not served the club well over the past few years.
Anyway here's hoping we buck the trend and get back up soon but be prepared for a potential prolonged stay in the conference. UTG
|
|
|
|
Post by Antonio Fargas on Aug 20, 2014 16:16:57 GMT
The thing is, everyone is saying 'don't expect to go straight back up' as a response to people being upset about our terrible start to the season (not suggesting you are, specifically). But all the bigger teams who went down to this level competed in the league (ie made a decent show of at least challenging for the playoffs). I don't believe for a moment we'll go straight back up, but ffs, we could at least be competing at this level.
|
|
|
|
Post by Bernard Briggs on Aug 20, 2014 16:24:14 GMT
No gashead wants to be in this league but unfortunately we are. I fear it could be for a while too. Pre-season didn't look great and we have had a bad 1st 3 results, with performances below what was expected but looking at the history of relegated teams we could be here for a while. I don't know the stats but few teams bounce straight back. A mate of mine is a Carlisle fan and they managed it however by the end of the season when they actually went down they were an improving side who had a terrible start to the season, they were too far adrift to recover, they stayed together and came back up. Many other relegated teams have remained in the conference or gone out of business. Rovers went down because they were a poor team, any half decent players have now gone and we are left with what we have plus the new recruits. Even if this team does turn out to be a promotion challenging group I think it will naturally take time. I am not convinced by the players or by Clarke at the moment but time will tell. Clarke's changing the team cannot help as I think we need consistency, you would have hoped that he would know his best 11. There is not surprisingly a lot of negativity around at the moment but we should try and be positive, constant changes have not served the club well over the past few years. Anyway here's hoping we buck the trend and get back up soon but be prepared for a potential prolonged stay in the conference. UTG The only way we`ll be leaving the Conference in the next few years, is the same way we left the football league. We have a board that reeks of failure, and a manager who is every bit as clueless as the last few losers we had in charge. Not good.
|
|
|
|
Post by Topper Gas on Aug 20, 2014 16:26:21 GMT
The thing is, everyone is saying 'don't expect to go straight back up' as a response to people being upset about our terrible start to the season (not suggesting you are, specifically). But all the bigger teams who went down to this level competed in the league (ie made a decent show of at least challenging for the playoffs). I don't believe for a moment we'll go straight back up, but ffs, we could at least be competing at this level. Not sure that's the case with Luton etc? Although to right off this season already is a bit early. Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk |
|
ast1
Joined: August 2014
Posts: 13
|
Post by ast1 on Aug 20, 2014 16:30:29 GMT
You are right we should be competing, but then we should have been competing in L2!
My point is that historically this is a difficult league and we have the leftovers from last year and some new conference level players who don't give me hope at the moment....
Maybe I am just not very optimistic about our chances but hopefully things can only get better.....!
|
|
brizzle
Lindsay Parsons
No Buy . . . No Sell!
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 4,293
|
Post by brizzle on Aug 20, 2014 16:32:31 GMT
No gashead wants to be in this league but unfortunately we are. I fear it could be for a while too. Pre-season didn't look great and we have had a bad 1st 3 results, with performances below what was expected but looking at the history of relegated teams we could be here for a while. I don't know the stats but few teams bounce straight back. A mate of mine is a Carlisle fan and they managed it however by the end of the season when they actually went down they were an improving side who had a terrible start to the season, they were too far adrift to recover, they stayed together and came back up. Many other relegated teams have remained in the conference or gone out of business. Rovers went down because they were a poor team, any half decent players have now gone and we are left with what we have plus the new recruits. Even if this team does turn out to be a promotion challenging group I think it will naturally take time. I am not convinced by the players or by Clarke at the moment but time will tell. Clarke's changing the team cannot help as I think we need consistency, you would have hoped that he would know his best 11. There is not surprisingly a lot of negativity around at the moment but we should try and be positive, constant changes have not served the club well over the past few years. Anyway here's hoping we buck the trend and get back up soon but be prepared for a potential prolonged stay in the conference. UTG The only way we`ll be leaving the Conference in the next few years, is the same way we left the football league. We have a board that reeks of failure, and a manager who is every bit as clueless as the last few losers we had in charge. Not good.
Spot on, Bernard. |
|
|
|
Post by Antonio Fargas on Aug 20, 2014 16:48:24 GMT
The thing is, everyone is saying 'don't expect to go straight back up' as a response to people being upset about our terrible start to the season (not suggesting you are, specifically). But all the bigger teams who went down to this level competed in the league (ie made a decent show of at least challenging for the playoffs). I don't believe for a moment we'll go straight back up, but ffs, we could at least be competing at this level. Not sure that's the case with Luton etc? From old fogey's post in a different thread: Aug 19, 2014 20:24:42 GMT 1 old_fogey said: I am beginning to get somewhat fed up with the Luton comparison. Assuming the info on the Statto website is accurate the following is what happened to them 2009-2010 (first season in Conference) - after 3 games they were top with 7 points (so no comparison) - the lowest they dropped to was around 8th-9th when they had 3-4 games in hand on teams above them - they finished 2nd but lost in Play Off semi finals. 2010-2011 - after 3 games they were top with 9 points (again no comparison) - again were in top 6-7 all season - finished 3rd but lost in Play Off Final (on penalties) 2011-2012 - after 3 games they were 10th with 5 points but all teams above them had played 4 games and 4th place was 7 points (again no comparison) - they stumbled along in the top 7-8 - finished 5th but lost in Play Off Final 2012-2013 was their only unsuccessful season when they failed to reach the play offs - after 3 games they did have 7 points though. Last season of course they went up - they were never lower than 14th. It must have been gut-wrenching to keep failing at the playoff stage (especially on penalties in one final), but it's clear the 5 year stint could, with a bit of luck, have been much shorter. This is not surprising as Luton won enough points not to have been relegated in the first place. We did not! Of course it is too early yet to see how things will pan out, but given our history in achieving promotions and the start to the season (both in terms of recruiting the size squad the manager requires and the performances) I am worried and fully understand the extreme negativity around. Actually I'm wrong there is a comparison with Luton. If their fans turned on their team because of such a "poor" (??) start to their sojourn in the Conference, I'd say that ours are being pretty supportive given our start. If the stats presented are wrong I apologise and I dare say the Luton fan will put me straight. |
|
|
|
Post by EssoBlue on Aug 20, 2014 19:34:49 GMT
Its actually been 11 seasons since Carlisle United bounced straight back.
2004 Carlisle United Promoted 2005 1 Year
2004 York City Promoted 2012 8 Years
2005 Cambridge United Promoted 2014 9 Years
2005 Kidderminster Harriers Still non-league
2006 Oxford United Promoted 2010 4 Years
2006 Rushden & Diamonds Still non-league
2007 Boston United Still non-league
2007 Torquay United Promoted 2009 2 Years
2008 Mansfield Town Promoted 2013 5 Years
2008 Wrexham Still non-league
2009 Chester City Still non-league
2009 Luton Tow Still non-league 5 Years
2010 Grimsby Town Still non-league
2010 Darlington Still non-league
2011 Stockport County Still non-league
2011 Lincoln City Still non-league
2012 Hereford United Still non-league
2012 Macclesfield Town Still non-league
2013 Barnet Still non-league
2013 Aldershot Town Still non-league
|
|
ast1
Joined: August 2014
Posts: 13
|
Post by ast1 on Aug 20, 2014 21:08:44 GMT
stats don't look good, 7 out of 20 teams have returned taking an average of 5 years, if I was a betting man........
|
|
|
|
Post by windybottom on Aug 20, 2014 22:18:32 GMT
Not sure that's the case with Luton etc? From old fogey's post in a different thread: Aug 19, 2014 20:24:42 GMT 1 old_fogey said: I am beginning to get somewhat fed up with the Luton comparison. Assuming the info on the Statto website is accurate the following is what happened to them 2009-2010 (first season in Conference) - after 3 games they were top with 7 points (so no comparison) - the lowest they dropped to was around 8th-9th when they had 3-4 games in hand on teams above them - they finished 2nd but lost in Play Off semi finals. 2010-2011 - after 3 games they were top with 9 points (again no comparison) - again were in top 6-7 all season - finished 3rd but lost in Play Off Final (on penalties) 2011-2012 - after 3 games they were 10th with 5 points but all teams above them had played 4 games and 4th place was 7 points (again no comparison) - they stumbled along in the top 7-8 - finished 5th but lost in Play Off Final 2012-2013 was their only unsuccessful season when they failed to reach the play offs - after 3 games they did have 7 points though. Last season of course they went up - they were never lower than 14th. It must have been gut-wrenching to keep failing at the playoff stage (especially on penalties in one final), but it's clear the 5 year stint could, with a bit of luck, have been much shorter. This is not surprising as Luton won enough points not to have been relegated in the first place. We did not! Of course it is too early yet to see how things will pan out, but given our history in achieving promotions and the start to the season (both in terms of recruiting the size squad the manager requires and the performances) I am worried and fully understand the extreme negativity around. Actually I'm wrong there is a comparison with Luton. If their fans turned on their team because of such a "poor" (??) start to their sojourn in the Conference, I'd say that ours are being pretty supportive given our start. If the stats presented are wrong I apologise and I dare say the Luton fan will put me straight. No the stats are spot on. the main comparison is the supporters of both think/thought they are to big to be in the conference with with that type of thinking every point dropped will hurt like hell. I am in devon this weekend and will be stopping off to catch the game. |
|
old_fogey
David Williams
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 18
Member is Online
|
Post by old_fogey on Aug 21, 2014 1:14:44 GMT
From old fogey's post in a different thread: Aug 19, 2014 20:24:42 GMT 1 old_fogey said: I am beginning to get somewhat fed up with the Luton comparison. Assuming the info on the Statto website is accurate the following is what happened to them 2009-2010 (first season in Conference) - after 3 games they were top with 7 points (so no comparison) - the lowest they dropped to was around 8th-9th when they had 3-4 games in hand on teams above them - they finished 2nd but lost in Play Off semi finals. 2010-2011 - after 3 games they were top with 9 points (again no comparison) - again were in top 6-7 all season - finished 3rd but lost in Play Off Final (on penalties) 2011-2012 - after 3 games they were 10th with 5 points but all teams above them had played 4 games and 4th place was 7 points (again no comparison) - they stumbled along in the top 7-8 - finished 5th but lost in Play Off Final 2012-2013 was their only unsuccessful season when they failed to reach the play offs - after 3 games they did have 7 points though. Last season of course they went up - they were never lower than 14th. It must have been gut-wrenching to keep failing at the playoff stage (especially on penalties in one final), but it's clear the 5 year stint could, with a bit of luck, have been much shorter. This is not surprising as Luton won enough points not to have been relegated in the first place. We did not! Of course it is too early yet to see how things will pan out, but given our history in achieving promotions and the start to the season (both in terms of recruiting the size squad the manager requires and the performances) I am worried and fully understand the extreme negativity around. Actually I'm wrong there is a comparison with Luton. If their fans turned on their team because of such a "poor" (??) start to their sojourn in the Conference, I'd say that ours are being pretty supportive given our start. If the stats presented are wrong I apologise and I dare say the Luton fan will put me straight. No the stats are spot on. the main comparison is the supporters of both think/thought they are to big to be in the conference with with that type of thinking every point dropped will hurt like hell. I am in devon this weekend and will be stopping off to catch the game. Thanks windy, always good to hear that figures presented are close to reality. I think however you haven't appreciated the point I'm trying to make. I didn't expect us to do brilliantly first time up. I looked very carefully at how previously relegated sides had fared in the Conference and realised that things would be difficult . It has to be said however that almost all relegated sides (at least those who passed GO, got any available parachute payments, and competed in the Conference) achieved at least 3 pts in their first three games, In fact the clubs who would be classed as similar to us (Luton and Oxford) did a great deal better than that, in almost all cases leading to the minimum of a play off place at the end of their first Conference season. I am not totally stupid (others may disagree) so will not base any forecast on just three games, but am totally p*ssed off when I read arguments which suggest that our 1 out of 9 points are deemed comparable to initial performances by previously relegated teams in their early Conference years. It is total BS. The comparison with Luton is particularly galling given the stats I provided. |
|
|
|
Post by swissgas on Aug 21, 2014 1:51:36 GMT
Thanks windy, always good to hear that figures presented are close to reality. I think however you haven't appreciated the point I'm trying to make. I didn't expect us to do brilliantly first time up. I looked very carefully at how previously relegated sides had fared in the Conference and realised that things would be difficult . It has to be said however that almost all relegated sides (at least those who passed GO, got any available parachute payments, and competed in the Conference) achieved at least 3 pts in their first three games, In fact the clubs who would be classed as similar to us (Luton and Oxford) did a great deal better than that, in almost all cases leading to the minimum of a play off place at the end of their first Conference season. I am not totally stupid (others may disagree) so will not base any forecast on just three games, but am totally p*ssed off when I read arguments which suggest that our 1 out of 9 points are deemed comparable to initial performances by previously relegated teams in their early Conference years. It is total BS. The comparison with Luton is particularly galling given the stats I provided. There seems to be a lot of myths being busted at the moment. It didn't take long for fans to find out that Darrell Clarke didn't actually "know this league" very well because he's never managed in it and only played in it for a couple of seasons. Then we find that far from being "no alternatives" to the current owners a number of people have looked at buying the club but didn't pass the vetting procedure. Now the "we have reached rock bottom" myth is looking a bit shaky and I wonder how many more myths are going to be exposed as wishful thinking ? |
|
Peter Parker
Global Moderator
Richard Walker
You have been sentenced to DELETION!
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 4,920
|
Post by Peter Parker on Aug 21, 2014 6:47:45 GMT
Short stays are rare, and this will hit home to the BoD, the ones that ensure we have a club as it is going to cost NH even more of a fortune I imagine. I am not surprised if he looks, worried, stressed or whatever
|
|
iancufc
Joined: August 2014
Posts: 1
|
Post by iancufc on Aug 21, 2014 7:37:14 GMT
First up I'm a Cambridge fan and am gutted that you've ended up in the conference, but glad we replaced you in league 2.
I watched Cambridge in the premier league playoffs and watched our decline for the following years until we hit the non league. I can tell you that the full realisation of this didn't hit me until I went to Grays athletic one Tuesday night. Crap ground, crap team, rap attendance and we got hammered.....
We struggled for the first 2 seasons and flirted with oblivion and relegation, then came close with 2 playoff defeats at Wembley before stabilising and finally getting a great manager and a superb chairman and finally winning at Wembley.
Last year we built a team of young players and older ones with something to prove, we had a break even projections of 2300 fans and thanks to Richard Money played the loan market well with a series of excellent signings. Each and everyone bought into his vision or they were dumped. We made a profit and have come back healthier than ever before.
This league is hard, there are clubs who throw money at it with little success and others like Kidderminster that run well and come close every year. One up by right is a license for financial problems. Having seen us try both approaches you need to be well run with a well connected decent manager.
I hope you find the team and the manager and board to make it happen, but you need the right manager and that is critical.
Don't compare yourself to Luton, remember that only got relegated after having a 30 point penalty, they should have bounced straight back, the fact they took so long sums up this league. They tried a lot of managers until like us they got the right one.
Remember we were never out of the top 2 all last season and we still nearly missed out....
I sincerely wish you good luck. But I fear you have a few seasons of this crap until you turn it around.
|
|
|
|
Post by beesknees on Aug 21, 2014 7:55:19 GMT
Its actually been 11 seasons since Carlisle United bounced straight back. 2004 Carlisle United Promoted 2005 1 Year 2004 York City Promoted 2012 8 Years 2005 Cambridge United Promoted 2014 9 Years 2005 Kidderminster Harriers Still non-league 2006 Oxford United Promoted 2010 4 Years 2006 Rushden & Diamonds Still non-league 2007 Boston United Still non-league 2007 Torquay United Promoted 2009 2 Years 2008 Mansfield Town Promoted 2013 5 Years 2008 Wrexham Still non-league 2009 Chester City Still non-league 2009 Luton Tow Still non-league 5 Years 2010 Grimsby Town Still non-league 2010 Darlington Still non-league 2011 Stockport County Still non-league 2011 Lincoln City Still non-league 2012 Hereford United Still non-league 2012 Macclesfield Town Still non-league 2013 Barnet Still non-league 2013 Aldershot Town Still non-league
I think the truth is slightly worse than this. 6 teams have been relegated further or gone bust and reformed (Rushden, Boston, Chester, Darlington, Stockport and Hereford).
So out of 20 teams relegated : 7 promoted to league 2 5 relegated to lower divisions 7 still in the conference premier 1 relegated but then returned to the conference as a reformed club (Chester)
|
|
LJG
Peter Beadle
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 969
|
Post by LJG on Aug 21, 2014 10:32:44 GMT
First up I'm a Cambridge fan and am gutted that you've ended up in the conference, but glad we replaced you in league 2. I watched Cambridge in the premier league playoffs and watched our decline for the following years until we hit the non league. I can tell you that the full realisation of this didn't hit me until I went to Grays athletic one Tuesday night. Crap ground, crap team, rap attendance and we got hammered..... We struggled for the first 2 seasons and flirted with oblivion and relegation, then came close with 2 playoff defeats at Wembley before stabilising and finally getting a great manager and a superb chairman and finally winning at Wembley. Last year we built a team of young players and older ones with something to prove, we had a break even projections of 2300 fans and thanks to Richard Money played the loan market well with a series of excellent signings. Each and everyone bought into his vision or they were dumped. We made a profit and have come back healthier than ever before. This league is hard, there are clubs who throw money at it with little success and others like Kidderminster that run well and come close every year. One up by right is a license for financial problems. Having seen us try both approaches you need to be well run with a well connected decent manager. I hope you find the team and the manager and board to make it happen, but you need the right manager and that is critical. Don't compare yourself to Luton, remember that only got relegated after having a 30 point penalty, they should have bounced straight back, the fact they took so long sums up this league. They tried a lot of managers until like us they got the right one. Remember we were never out of the top 2 all last season and we still nearly missed out.... I sincerely wish you good luck. But I fear you have a few seasons of this crap until you turn it around. We are utterly screwed. |
|
|
|
Post by supersteve73 on Aug 21, 2014 10:49:53 GMT
We could easily get out of this league at the first attempt........
|
|
Peter Parker
Global Moderator
Richard Walker
You have been sentenced to DELETION!
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 4,920
|
Post by Peter Parker on Aug 21, 2014 11:22:50 GMT
We could easily get out of this league at the first attempt........ based on what |
|
|
|
Post by martyhopkirk on Aug 21, 2014 11:45:14 GMT
Another little stat, since the conference went to the 46 game format. The club winning the title has always won at least one of their first three games.
Marty...
|
|
|
|
Post by supersteve73 on Aug 21, 2014 12:32:24 GMT
We could easily get out of this league at the first attempt........ based on what On how bad we are. |
|
