GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Post by GasMacc1 on Jan 30, 2018 9:54:09 GMT
“ Project: An individual or collaborative enterprise that is carefully planned to achieve a particular aim”. [OED]. As a description of an approach to each League One match, who can disagree with that? Darrell changes the team as he thinks best fits the aim of winning each game, sometimes resting players when the matches are bunched up in the schedule. The arguments for and against this approach have been well rehearsed on this forum - and I’ve been one of the keenest advocates in favour of it! My argument was that the concept of playing the same team, week-in, week-out, belonged deep in the last century. I was fond of comparing Darrell’s method with that of the top Premier League managers, and was sure that making full use of your whole squad was the best route to success. Perhaps as a means of trying to prove the point, I decided to review how often the managers of the leading League One clubs have made changes. Instead of proving my point, it looks as though I might have torpedoed my own argument!! League One (2016-17): Rovers made the Top Two look averse to change!
Last season, Rovers made nearly twice as many changes as the top two in the League. Sheffield United and Bolton fielded an unchanged starting line-up on ten and twelve occasions, respectively, whereas Darrell left the team alone only four times. Tom Lockyer was the only Rovers player to start all 46 matches, but the two automatically promoted teams had no ever-presents. The Blades had five players who started 40 or more matches, but the Trotters equalled Rovers in having just three (Lockyer, Lines and Brown).
| Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol Rovers | | Total Changes (45 matches: 2 to 46) | 73 | 78 | 129 | | Changes per match | 1.62 | 1.73 | 2.87 | | Unchanged starting line-ups | 10 | 12 | 4 | | Ever-present players | 0 | 0 | 1 | | Starters in more than 39 matches | 5 | 3 | 3 | | Different starters | 25 | 29 | 31 |
So far this season, in League One matches, we’ve made two-and-a-half times as many changes to our starting line up as Wigan have! Granted, we’ve played two more matches than they have, but it would be fair to say that Latics manager Paul Cook is no tinkerman! The hoarse-throated scouser has decided to make no changes on 9 occasions already this season. Tony Mowbray at Blackburn, however, has resisted the temptation to make changes only twice; even Darrell has kept the same line-up in consecutive matches on three occasions! Darrell is way ahead, though, on the number of changes made from game to game. He’s made 76 so far, compared with 47 (Blackburn) and 29 (Wigan). Rovers have no ever-present players this season. In fact, Billy Bodin was the last man standing, but his injury at Northampton kept him from starting the Oxford game. Only Liam Sercombe (27 starts) and Ellis Harrison (25 starts) - coincidentally my current front-runners for player of the season- have missed fewer than 5 League matches in 2017-18. Three Blackburn players have yet to be omitted from their starting line-up and one other has missed fewer than five matches. Wigan only have one ever-present, but as many as seven of their players have missed fewer than four games. | Wigan Athletic | Blackburn Rovers | Bristol Rovers | | Matches Played (inc. 27 Jan 2018) | 27 | 28 | 29 | | Total Changes | 29 | 47 | 76 | | Changes per match | 1.12 | 1.74 | 2.71 | | Unchanged starting line-ups | 9 | 2 | 3 | | Ever-present Players | 1 | 3 | 0 | | Starters missing fewer than 5 matches | 7 | 4 | 2 | | Different starters | 19 | 20 | 21 |
In conclusion, I’m sticking to my defence of Darrell’s strategy of adjusting the team to give us the best chance of beating the opposition and resting players as he deems appropriate. But I’m going to have to drop any thought that it’s a method that successful clubs in League One have employed in the recent past! |
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Igitur
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Post by Igitur on Jan 30, 2018 10:07:07 GMT
Obviously I have to bow to DC's 'resting' players, after all as the, much used, phrase goes "he sees them everyday on the training ground" but a professional player should be able to cope with the schedule. I'm an unchanged team person particularly in forming relationships and understanding in the back four (plus the keeper,) and also between strikers. There is nothing like winning however to improve a team.
It's been argued before that we often finish with a better team than we start with, there are too many variables to confirm this and some of DC's changes have been through injury or a player having a mare.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 10:19:32 GMT
Absolutely nothing to do with Sheffield United, Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers having bigger budgets and allowing them to have better players. No, not at all. How do we compare to the relegated teams last season and the teams down there this season? Stats can be used to prove whatever you like with such a small range.
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Peter Parker
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Richard Walker
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Post by Peter Parker on Jan 30, 2018 10:32:30 GMT
Absolutely nothing to do with Sheffield United, Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers having bigger budgets and allowing them to have better players. No, not at all. How do we compare to the relegated teams last season and the teams down there this season? Stats can be used to prove whatever you like with such a small range. exactly what I would have said. The 4 clubs mentioned just happen to be the biggest clubs in the division at the time, with more resources and presumably better players |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 11:02:57 GMT
Absolutely nothing to do with Sheffield United, Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers having bigger budgets and allowing them to have better players. No, not at all. How do we compare to the relegated teams last season and the teams down there this season? Stats can be used to prove whatever you like with such a small range. exactly what I would have said. The 4 clubs mentioned just happen to be the biggest clubs in the division at the time, with more resources and presumably better players But by the same token of having bigger budgets and squads they would be more likely to have squad rotation than those with smaller budgets and squads |
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Captain Jayho
Andy Tillson
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Post by Captain Jayho on Jan 30, 2018 11:23:45 GMT
Good bit of analysis that GasMacc, nice work.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 11:52:07 GMT
exactly what I would have said. The 4 clubs mentioned just happen to be the biggest clubs in the division at the time, with more resources and presumably better players But by the same token of having bigger budgets and squads they would be more likely to have squad rotation than those with smaller budgets and squads It's harder to change a winning side that's playing well, I surmise but when we were in the Conference and League 2 I don't think we made as many changes. Now, we are a middling team and sometimes won't be able to dictate the way games are played. We change our team to fit the opposition as opposed to keeping a team to force our style on the opposition. A perfect example of this was playing Sinclair as a number 10 against Swindon last season. It was the only time he played their last year but Clarke knew Swindon played out from the back. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 13:05:12 GMT
But by the same token of having bigger budgets and squads they would be more likely to have squad rotation than those with smaller budgets and squads It's harder to change a winning side that's playing well, I surmise but when we were in the Conference and League 2 I don't think we made as many changes. Now, we are a middling team and sometimes won't be able to dictate the way games are played. We change our team to fit the opposition as opposed to keeping a team to force our style on the opposition. A perfect example of this was playing Sinclair as a number 10 against Swindon last season. It was the only time he played their last year but Clarke knew Swindon played out from the back. I don't think we kept the same side for consecutive games in the conference or leaguess 2 because this conversation kept coming up then or come to think of it the last 8 games of our relegation season |
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Jan 30, 2018 13:24:28 GMT
Great research GasMacc1. Your stuff always starts a good thread. My gut feeling is DC tinkers too much but you can’t really argue when you see what he has achieved for us. Being a more vintage gashead I always go back to our 73/74 season when Don M really knew his best team and stuck with it most of the time. Without checking I think 7/8 players would have played 38 games or more and I reckon it might even have been higher. But it’s a different age now with more competitions and games to play so it’s hard to compare different ages. The comparisons you use are good ones but as others have said the better teams have the better players and perhaps Parkinson and Wilder last season did know their best team. After 4 great years I’m still not sure if DC knows what his best team is or if he ever did know what it was. Did you look at how many changes were made after 23 games ( half way through the season) compared to the second half? I think that would be interesting because, and again it’s only a gut feeling, I bet there’s fewer changes from January onwards. DC has a pattern of better second halves of the season when he’s almost decided what team he wants to play. I know why he changes so often, because of the way he sees it. Listening to him after the Doncaster match it was strange to see that he was very proud of the fact that he played four different systems in the same match and that he reacted well to changing circumstances. He prides himself on the adaptability of his players. It all goes with what he says about his players over achieving, so he has to counter better players and perhaps better teams by being a better tactician. So I guess all those things make me unsurprised that he tinkers so much.
UTG!
ps. Just checked and 1973/74: 4 ever presents, 4 other players 42 games+ and 3 players in the 30s.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 13:29:45 GMT
Being a more vintage gashead I always go back to our 73/74 season when Don M really knew his best team and stuck with it most of the time. Without checking I think 7/8 players would have played 38 games or more and I reckon it might even have been higher. Surely part of the reason with that though is only having one sub as opposed to 7... |
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Peter Parker
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Post by Peter Parker on Jan 30, 2018 13:36:21 GMT
Great research GasMacc1. Your stuff always starts a good thread. My gut feeling is DC tinkers too much but you can’t really argue when you see what he has achieved for us. Being a more vintage gashead I always go back to our 73/74 season when Don M really knew his best team and stuck with it most of the time. Without checking I think 7/8 players would have played 38 games or more and I reckon it might even have been higher. But it’s a different age now with more competitions and games to play so it’s hard to compare different ages. The comparisons you use are good ones but as others have said the better teams have the better players and perhaps Parkinson and Wilder last season did know their best team. After 4 great years I’m still not sure if DC knows what his best team is or if he ever did know what it was. Did you look at how many changes were made after 23 games ( half way through the season) compared to the second half? I think that would be interesting because, and again it’s only a gut feeling, I bet there’s fewer changes from January onwards. DC has a pattern of better second halves of the season when he’s almost decided what team he wants to play. I know why he changes so often, because of the way he sees it. Listening to him after the Doncaster match it was strange to see that he was very proud of the fact that he played four different systems in the same match and that he reacted well to changing circumstances. He prides himself on the adaptability of his players. It all goes with what he says about his players over achieving, so he has to counter better players and perhaps better teams by being a better tactician. So I guess all those things make me unsurprised that he tinkers so much. UTG! ps. Just checked and 1973/74: 4 ever presents, 4 other players 42 games+ and 3 players in the 30s. Why is that strange?
Surely that is what managing on a match day is about
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Jan 30, 2018 13:38:47 GMT
Very true and a good point chewy but my original point stands about the starting 11 stands, DM knew and chose his best team. Not sure if DC knows or even has a best 11. It depends on many things.
UTG!
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Jan 30, 2018 13:45:58 GMT
Great research GasMacc1. Your stuff always starts a good thread. My gut feeling is DC tinkers too much but you can’t really argue when you see what he has achieved for us. Being a more vintage gashead I always go back to our 73/74 season when Don M really knew his best team and stuck with it most of the time. Without checking I think 7/8 players would have played 38 games or more and I reckon it might even have been higher. But it’s a different age now with more competitions and games to play so it’s hard to compare different ages. The comparisons you use are good ones but as others have said the better teams have the better players and perhaps Parkinson and Wilder last season did know their best team. After 4 great years I’m still not sure if DC knows what his best team is or if he ever did know what it was. Did you look at how many changes were made after 23 games ( half way through the season) compared to the second half? I think that would be interesting because, and again it’s only a gut feeling, I bet there’s fewer changes from January onwards. DC has a pattern of better second halves of the season when he’s almost decided what team he wants to play. I know why he changes so often, because of the way he sees it. Listening to him after the Doncaster match it was strange to see that he was very proud of the fact that he played four different systems in the same match and that he reacted well to changing circumstances. He prides himself on the adaptability of his players. It all goes with what he says about his players over achieving, so he has to counter better players and perhaps better teams by being a better tactician. So I guess all those things make me unsurprised that he tinkers so much. UTG! ps. Just checked and 1973/74: 4 ever presents, 4 other players 42 games+ and 3 players in the 30s. Why is that strange?
Surely that is what managing on a match day is about
Perhaps strange was the wrong word and it does show perhaps how reactive managers have to be nowadays. And you're absolutely right about that is what being a manager on a match day is all about. I wasn’t being critical at all just trying to show the difference between then and now. Having a manager like DC who can do that thinking on your feet stuff on a Saturday afternoon makes us very fortunate. listening to other teams and their forums criticising managers who always change on 60 minutes or who always leave it too late to influence the result shows how fortunate we are having DC. And having players who might not be as good as some in this league means DC has to be very good tactically. UTG! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 14:08:29 GMT
Very true and a good point chewy but my original point stands about the starting 11 stands, DM knew and chose his best team. Not sure if DC knows or even has a best 11. It depends on many things. UTG! Knowing your best 11 is from a bygone era, knowing the strengths of your squad and how to utilise them in different scenarios is what wins football matches now. No on rocks up with 4-4-2 every week now, you chop and change formations, personnel and tactics for each game. Scouting is through the roof now compared to the past, players know everything about the opposition before the match so you simply can't stick all the time. |
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dido
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Post by dido on Jan 30, 2018 14:13:15 GMT
"Knowing your best 11 is from a bygone era" - I tired of telling stevek this, chewy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 17:40:18 GMT
Very true and a good point chewy but my original point stands about the starting 11 stands, DM knew and chose his best team. Not sure if DC knows or even has a best 11. It depends on many things. UTG! Knowing your best 11 is from a bygone era, knowing the strengths of your squad and how to utilise them in different scenarios is what wins football matches now. No on rocks up with 4-4-2 every week now, you chop and change formations, personnel and tactics for each game. Scouting is through the roof now compared to the past, players know everything about the opposition before the match so you simply can't stick all the time. If you believe that scouts nowadays provide information on opposition that those in years gone by then you are sadly very mistaken. It was always part and parcel of a scouts job to watch future opponents and identify strengths and weaknesses. As for the old chestnut that keeps coming up about football is off a different era that's is absolute rubbish.managers have always experimented with different formations they just didn't yell it from the roof tops.there is nothing new in football just variations on a theme |
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Jan 30, 2018 17:57:51 GMT
Very true and a good point chewy but my original point stands about the starting 11 stands, DM knew and chose his best team. Not sure if DC knows or even has a best 11. It depends on many things. UTG! Knowing your best 11 is from a bygone era, knowing the strengths of your squad and how to utilise them in different scenarios is what wins football matches now. No on rocks up with 4-4-2 every week now, you chop and change formations, personnel and tactics for each game. Scouting is through the roof now compared to the past, players know everything about the opposition before the match so you simply can't stick all the time. Agree. Think I said as much my original post about it being a different age. But I’m not sure our scouting is from a different era. Although we probably have more access to video to know strengths and weaknesses of opposition now.😁 UTG! |
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Post by otleygas on Jan 30, 2018 20:40:41 GMT
Can’t work out how to post a picture on here, but link below takes you to further stats relating to the OPs. experimental361.com/2017/10/05/squad-usage-league-1-5-oct-2017/“Bury have already used 30 different players this season, starting 29 of them (which is five more than any other team), so it’s unsurprising that they’re one of two sides in the division (the other being Bristol Rovers) who have no ever-present players. While Rovers have been more restrained in the number of players they’ve called upon, they’ve been rotating the squad heavily. Darrell Clarke has been making an average of 3.7 changes to the starting line-up every match, which is the highest by some distance.” Edit. Have just realised that the link/text above relates to data up to October 17. There is a later update on their Facebook page which shows rovers as 2.8 changes per game now (up to 18 jan) the second highest in the league behind Bury. . We have now named unchanged sides 3 times. |
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Post by GasMacc1 on Feb 2, 2018 8:11:16 GMT
Absolutely nothing to do with Sheffield United, Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers having bigger budgets and allowing them to have better players. No, not at all. How do we compare to the relegated teams last season and the teams down there this season? Stats can be used to prove whatever you like with such a small range. Yes, that’s a valid point, I’d like to have had the data for more clubs to see whether a better picture would emerge. I had to gather the raw data, though, from all the individual match reports per club - not a quick task! However, we can use the link provided by OtleyGas. It shows (albeit only for the first ten matches of this season) a list of clubs, ordered by number of players used. Struggling clubs (Bury, Oldham, Rochdale, Cobblers) had all used over 23 players in their starting line-ups by the end of September! More striking (from a Rovers point of view) was the average number of changes to the starting XI. For all the other teams in the League One, there’s a very broad (inverse) correlation between League performance and number of changes. Roughly speaking, the fewer changes the manager decides to make, the higher up the League the team is. The glaring exception is Rovers: DC had made 3.7 changes per match - that’s nearly four times as many changes as Graham Alexander decided to make at Scunthorpe. My data shows that that rate for Rovers has settled down to “only” 2.62 changes per match (29 games to end January 2018), compared to 1.07 and 1.68 for Wigan and Blackburn. Taking your point about relegated teams from last season, I dug out the data for the club that finished bottom, Chesterfield. They had almost as many unchanged starting line-ups (9) as Sheffield United (10) and Bolton (12). Rovers had three! The Spireites made 90 changes (2 per match) against Rovers’ 129 changes (2.87 per match). In order to provide a “control”, I also gathered the playing records for Walsall, who finished in 14th position, four places and 8 points below Rovers. Walsall were amazingly consistent with a total of eighteen unchanged starting line-ups! They made only 58 changes through the season, that’s just 1.29 per match. It seems that Darrell and Jon Whitney at Walsall have diametrically opposed approaches to team selection. Since neither Walsall nor Rovers are known for having huge budgets, then I think the figures show it's more likely to be down to the manager's decision.
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| | 2016-17 | Chesterfield | Walsall | Sheff Utd | Bolton | Bristol Rovers | | Total Changes (45 matches) | 90 | 58 | 73 | 78 | 129 | | Changes per match | 2.00 | 1.29 | 1.62 | 1.73 | 2.87 | | Unchanged Starting Line-ups | 9 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 3 | | Ever-present players | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | | Starters > 39 matches | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | | Different Starters | 33 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Post by GasMacc1 on Feb 2, 2018 8:12:14 GMT
exactly what I would have said. The 4 clubs mentioned just happen to be the biggest clubs in the division at the time, with more resources and presumably better players But by the same token of having bigger budgets and squads they would be more likely to have squad rotation than those with smaller budgets and squads That was my view as well, so I was a little surprised to see that the two automatically promoted teams last season used less squad rotation. Even the clubs with the biggest budgets haven’t got infinite resources. Perhaps they can afford about 10 or 11 players of Championship standard- hence trying to sweat those assets to the max - plus a further group of solid League One players to complete the squad. Whereas clubs like Rovers can only afford the squad of “solid League One players”. |
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