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Post by laughinggas on Apr 24, 2017 8:55:50 GMT
The original point was is it all down to the strikers we don't score enough? Is it because we are better defensively that we don't score enough? Is it coz a striker left?
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Apr 24, 2017 14:49:59 GMT
The original point was is it all down to the strikers we don't score enough? Is it because we are better defensively that we don't score enough? Is it coz a striker left? Probably all of those things. Since Christmas I've definitely felt we were less expansive than at any other time under DC's management. We seem to be narrower and playing a much more simple pattern of play. But then Taylor was the fulcrum of the side that had played that more expansive game.
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faggotygas
Byron Anthony
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Post by faggotygas on Apr 26, 2017 8:32:43 GMT
33ish Rovers assists on there, but we've scored 65 goals. 32ish goals either assisted by Taylor or no-one?
Hmm.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 8:39:48 GMT
33ish Rovers assists on there, but we've scored 65 goals. 32ish goals either assisted by Taylor or no-one?
Hmm.
Most of Bodins goals he created himself, own goals and penalties plus goals direct from free kicks, don't think they have assists.
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faggotygas
Byron Anthony
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,862
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Post by faggotygas on Apr 26, 2017 11:08:38 GMT
33ish Rovers assists on there, but we've scored 65 goals. 32ish goals either assisted by Taylor or no-one?
Hmm.
Most of Bodins goals he created himself, own goals and penalties plus goals direct from free kicks, don't think they have assists. For Bodin's goals, even if he beat 10 men someone usually passed to him in the first place. That's the assist.
For penalties and free kicks, its whoever was fouled, or shot/crossed if its a hand ball. For own goals, whoever touched the ball last, usually. So the only ones that shouldn't have assists are where the scorer has directly received the ball from an opponent, or penalties & direct free kicks where the scorer was the one fouled.
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Apr 26, 2017 12:41:09 GMT
33ish Rovers assists on there, but we've scored 65 goals. 32ish goals either assisted by Taylor or no-one?
Hmm.
Most of Bodins goals he created himself, own goals and penalties plus goals direct from free kicks, don't think they have assists. Wow - we've had a better season than I thought. All those thunderblasters and Maradonaesque dribbles.... As a statistician I have to say that football statistics really are a pile of crap compared with other sports. Broadbrush stats are fine but they just don't seem to have developed statistics in football that really get at how players help their sides to win games. Now that might be to do with the nature of continuous game and difficulty in categorising individual players actions within that context but that is not a problem that exists in basketball and ice hockey who have developed incredibly advanced statistics (and, from the point of view of creating measurement categories for individual player contributions, are not noticeably different from football). That kind of similar revolution in advanced statistics has just not occurred in football. I've read bits of books such as 'the numbers game' etc and to be honest they seem underpowered and light years behind the kind of analysis that is going on in other sports. For example, in Ice Hockey, it was discovered that defencemen who delivered hard body checks did not actually contribute all that much to stopping the other team from creating chances because there was no guarantee that it would help you win back possession. Teams were massively overvaluing physical defencemen and massively undervaluing mobile ones because the big hits were eye catching and crowd pleasing and felt like they were significant moments but actually weren't - this turned over 100 years of conventional thinking and ended up driving several players into retirement while rewarding other previously obscure players with massive contract. In football I largely think all the fancy graphics that are put up on the telly are just more visually impressive ways of saying the same things that pundits and managers have been saying for years - I'm not sure they really contribute to an improved understanding of what it takes to win football matches. I did read that Joe Cole was considered the most overrated player in Premiership football history because while what he did was eye catching, highly skillful and crowd pleasing it also had very low % success rates and there was very little evidence that in the long run he was helping his sides to win. Big clubs are spending a lot on this but unless they have been spectacularly good at keeping it in house (which would be nearly impossible and not even intelligence agencies manage to achieve this) there's not much evidence of it yielding particularly impressive results. Maybe that's because football has been so analysed to death already by so many people that the margins for improvement are a lot lower than in other sports - perhaps it's genuinely because football is unique in being impossible to quantify (I'm skeptical about that but it's possible) but either way the statistical revolution has not really happened and that may be an entirely good thing - I think it tends to crush individuality and increase the already overcoached nature of modern team sport which is problematic because in pretty much every sport defence improvement is a hell of a lot easier to strategise based on stats than attack is.
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
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Post by kingswood Polak on Apr 26, 2017 13:08:38 GMT
I was brought up on appearances goals so all the assist stuff is total rubbish to me,its a team game and the teams that win most win leagues simple as that. Danny leadbitter is often slated for his erratic crossing but strangely when he hits a good one its often very low and at pace and easy to attack so its not all bad on crosses with danny imo. Im sure others are into miles ran and assists and of course some clubs are using this data but i think its crap. Totally agree. The guys now being employed to do nothing but analyse is wasted as far as I am concerned. It can make players who are not good look better and those that produce the end product look average. Trouble is that it's a "thing" now and I don't see it going away. I did laugh when you wrote about miles ran as my eldest brother, who was a great amateur and one of those who could have made pro if he wanted it, he said just run around all over the pitch. This was in my final trial for what was then our youth set up, Bristol Parkway. I was placed in a side that had Holloway and Kite in the team I was in and Holloway was a full back then. I did run around, a LOT and the stats woukd have no doubt shown my mileage as extraordinary but suffice to say I never made the cut. To this day I don't know if my brother purposely sabotaged me or that he really thought I would stand out just by the area covered. I was totally shattered afterwards, physically and mentally. Having Colin Dobson come up to me and kindly say "do you have another sport you enjoy as much" has never been surpassed in the sheer disappointment and devastation it brought. It was my dream to play for rovers and even though Bobby Jones kept onto me, to carry on playing at amateur level and with his always complimenting me, I gave up playing the beautiful game at 18. I made a brief comeback in the suburban league for Bristol crusaders, aged 28, I did that to get a much more naturally gifted friend back into the game and off of drugs. He made semi pro after just 1.5 seasons so at least I did some good. The statistical side, as I see it, is something brought in directly from US sports
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 18:33:01 GMT
Most of Bodins goals he created himself, own goals and penalties plus goals direct from free kicks, don't think they have assists. For Bodin's goals, even if he beat 10 men someone usually passed to him in the first place. That's the assist.
For penalties and free kicks, its whoever was fouled, or shot/crossed if its a hand ball. For own goals, whoever touched the ball last, usually. So the only ones that shouldn't have assists are where the scorer has directly received the ball from an opponent, or penalties & direct free kicks where the scorer was the one fouled.
You're probably correct, i suppose a good dummy freeing a fellow striker to score is an assist without touching the ball, do they count those.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 22:20:28 GMT
I was brought up on appearances goals so all the assist stuff is total rubbish to me,its a team game and the teams that win most win leagues simple as that. Danny leadbitter is often slated for his erratic crossing but strangely when he hits a good one its often very low and at pace and easy to attack so its not all bad on crosses with danny imo. Im sure others are into miles ran and assists and of course some clubs are using this data but i think its crap. Totally agree. The guys now being employed to do nothing but analyse is wasted as far as I am concerned. It can make players who are not good look better and those that produce the end product look average. Trouble is that it's a "thing" now and I don't see it going away. I did laugh when you wrote about miles ran as my eldest brother, who was a great amateur and one of those who could have made pro if he wanted it, he said just run around all over the pitch. This was in my final trial for what was then our youth set up, Bristol Parkway. I was placed in a side that had Holloway and Kite in the team I was in and Holloway was a full back then. I did run around, a LOT and the stats woukd have no doubt shown my mileage as extraordinary but suffice to say I never made the cut. To this day I don't know if my brother purposely sabotaged me or that he really thought I would stand out just by the area covered. I was totally shattered afterwards, physically and mentally. Having Colin Dobson come up to me and kindly say "do you have another sport you enjoy as much" has never been surpassed in the sheer disappointment and devastation it brought. It was my dream to play for rovers and even though Bobby Jones kept onto me, to carry on playing at amateur level and with his always complimenting me, I gave up playing the beautiful game at 18. I made a brief comeback in the suburban league for Bristol crusaders, aged 28, I did that to get a much more naturally gifted friend back into the game and off of drugs. He made semi pro after just 1.5 seasons so at least I did some good. The statistical side, as I see it, is something brought in directly from US sports Thanks for that,good stuff,i remember bristol crusaders playing at canford park. I was lucky enough to play at ashton gate twice when city played in the western league after their 1982 disaster and even scored there,wish i could have played at eastville though. What a great player colin dobson was even at the end of his career playing for rovers?
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faggotygas
Byron Anthony
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,862
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Post by faggotygas on Apr 27, 2017 9:46:29 GMT
Most of Bodins goals he created himself, own goals and penalties plus goals direct from free kicks, don't think they have assists. Wow - we've had a better season than I thought. All those thunderblasters and Maradonaesque dribbles.... As a statistician I have to say that football statistics really are a pile of crap compared with other sports. Broadbrush stats are fine but they just don't seem to have developed statistics in football that really get at how players help their sides to win games. Now that might be to do with the nature of continuous game and difficulty in categorising individual players actions within that context but that is not a problem that exists in basketball and ice hockey who have developed incredibly advanced statistics (and, from the point of view of creating measurement categories for individual player contributions, are not noticeably different from football). That kind of similar revolution in advanced statistics has just not occurred in football. I've read bits of books such as 'the numbers game' etc and to be honest they seem underpowered and light years behind the kind of analysis that is going on in other sports. For example, in Ice Hockey, it was discovered that defencemen who delivered hard body checks did not actually contribute all that much to stopping the other team from creating chances because there was no guarantee that it would help you win back possession. Teams were massively overvaluing physical defencemen and massively undervaluing mobile ones because the big hits were eye catching and crowd pleasing and felt like they were significant moments but actually weren't - this turned over 100 years of conventional thinking and ended up driving several players into retirement while rewarding other previously obscure players with massive contract. In football I largely think all the fancy graphics that are put up on the telly are just more visually impressive ways of saying the same things that pundits and managers have been saying for years - I'm not sure they really contribute to an improved understanding of what it takes to win football matches. I did read that Joe Cole was considered the most overrated player in Premiership football history because while what he did was eye catching, highly skillful and crowd pleasing it also had very low % success rates and there was very little evidence that in the long run he was helping his sides to win. Big clubs are spending a lot on this but unless they have been spectacularly good at keeping it in house (which would be nearly impossible and not even intelligence agencies manage to achieve this) there's not much evidence of it yielding particularly impressive results. Maybe that's because football has been so analysed to death already by so many people that the margins for improvement are a lot lower than in other sports - perhaps it's genuinely because football is unique in being impossible to quantify (I'm skeptical about that but it's possible) but either way the statistical revolution has not really happened and that may be an entirely good thing - I think it tends to crush individuality and increase the already overcoached nature of modern team sport which is problematic because in pretty much every sport defence improvement is a hell of a lot easier to strategise based on stats than attack is. Agree more development and sublety is required. Why all the emphasis on assists (or goals scored for that matter), when for an attacking midfielder key passes (i.e. leading up to a goal) are surely more important?
We also have the issue that, unlike in many other sorts, positions are less fixed and that there are different ways to play the same position. A passing attacking midfielder may have much better possession retention stats than a dribbling midfielder, but it might be the dribbling midfielder who actually gets you the chances to score. A forward migh not get many goals, but may be creating them for others.
It may be though that this sublety is being employed by the pros, such as our own football analyst, but its not shown on TV etc because they don't think that the general public would get it or care. This of course is disproven in American sports, where the average Joe can often real off reams of stats about baseball players, for example.
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faggotygas
Byron Anthony
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,862
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Post by faggotygas on Apr 27, 2017 9:49:59 GMT
I was brought up on appearances goals so all the assist stuff is total rubbish to me,its a team game and the teams that win most win leagues simple as that. Danny leadbitter is often slated for his erratic crossing but strangely when he hits a good one its often very low and at pace and easy to attack so its not all bad on crosses with danny imo. Im sure others are into miles ran and assists and of course some clubs are using this data but i think its crap. Tell that to Valeriy Lobanovskyi
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2017 10:42:47 GMT
I was brought up on appearances goals so all the assist stuff is total rubbish to me,its a team game and the teams that win most win leagues simple as that. Danny leadbitter is often slated for his erratic crossing but strangely when he hits a good one its often very low and at pace and easy to attack so its not all bad on crosses with danny imo. Im sure others are into miles ran and assists and of course some clubs are using this data but i think its crap. Tell that to Valeriy Lobanovskyi I know statistical analysis can be a useful tool for coaches and its been used by coaches for many years but i think its over egged on sky by football pundits and i find it boring. Each to their own i suppose.
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Apr 27, 2017 11:22:28 GMT
Wow - we've had a better season than I thought. All those thunderblasters and Maradonaesque dribbles.... As a statistician I have to say that football statistics really are a pile of crap compared with other sports. Agree more development and sublety is required.
I've long thought that we can do better than the "shots on -" / "shots off-target" as a proxy for how well a team has played, beyond the scoreline of course. Many shots on target can present very little chance of a goal, whereas other "near-miss" events can be a much better indicator of a team's goal-threat. For example, in the Euro 96 semi-final v Germany, Gazza was an inch away from touching Shearer's pass into an open goal, but his lunge fell agonisingly short of making contact with the ball, which simply rolled out of play. Yet that event probably wouldn't even appear on the data summary of the match.
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faggotygas
Byron Anthony
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,862
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Post by faggotygas on Apr 28, 2017 9:28:01 GMT
Agree more development and sublety is required.
I've long thought that we can do better than the "shots on -" / "shots off-target" as a proxy for how well a team has played, beyond the scoreline of course. Many shots on target can present very little chance of a goal, whereas other "near-miss" events can be a much better indicator of a team's goal-threat. For example, in the Euro 96 semi-final v Germany, Gazza was an inch away from touching Shearer's pass into an open goal, but his lunge fell agonisingly short of making contact with the ball, which simply rolled out of play. Yet that event probably wouldn't even appear on the data summary of the match. I think a proper analyst would use something like chances created. You could argue the definition of a chance all day though.
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 10,263
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Post by kingswood Polak on Apr 28, 2017 17:18:17 GMT
Totally agree. The guys now being employed to do nothing but analyse is wasted as far as I am concerned. It can make players who are not good look better and those that produce the end product look average. Trouble is that it's a "thing" now and I don't see it going away. I did laugh when you wrote about miles ran as my eldest brother, who was a great amateur and one of those who could have made pro if he wanted it, he said just run around all over the pitch. This was in my final trial for what was then our youth set up, Bristol Parkway. I was placed in a side that had Holloway and Kite in the team I was in and Holloway was a full back then. I did run around, a LOT and the stats woukd have no doubt shown my mileage as extraordinary but suffice to say I never made the cut. To this day I don't know if my brother purposely sabotaged me or that he really thought I would stand out just by the area covered. I was totally shattered afterwards, physically and mentally. Having Colin Dobson come up to me and kindly say "do you have another sport you enjoy as much" has never been surpassed in the sheer disappointment and devastation it brought. It was my dream to play for rovers and even though Bobby Jones kept onto me, to carry on playing at amateur level and with his always complimenting me, I gave up playing the beautiful game at 18. I made a brief comeback in the suburban league for Bristol crusaders, aged 28, I did that to get a much more naturally gifted friend back into the game and off of drugs. He made semi pro after just 1.5 seasons so at least I did some good. The statistical side, as I see it, is something brought in directly from US sports Thanks for that,good stuff,i remember bristol crusaders playing at canford park. I was lucky enough to play at ashton gate twice when city played in the western league after their 1982 disaster and even scored there,wish i could have played at eastville though. What a great player colin dobson was even at the end of his career playing for rovers? That's right. Canford was our home pitch but the dressing and shower area were diabolical, even for that level of football. You had to be pretty brace to face the showers, all 2 of them for all players and mostly cold water too lol. Those were the days lad, we were lucky lol
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1883
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 83
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Post by 1883 on Apr 29, 2017 0:53:30 GMT
I was brought up on appearances goals so all the assist stuff is total rubbish to me,its a team game and the teams that win most win leagues simple as that. Danny leadbitter is often slated for his erratic crossing but strangely when he hits a good one its often very low and at pace and easy to attack so its not all bad on crosses with danny imo. Im sure others are into miles ran and assists and of course some clubs are using this data but i think its crap. Cracking 'Yer Da' post, this.
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