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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 7, 2021 16:59:08 GMT
and what is the easiest route to them?
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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 7, 2021 20:07:58 GMT
Even awarding us the 3 points against Swindon and Wigan I have us sweating on 38 points.
March and first week of April is a very difficult run of fixtures; if we are still flirting on limit of drop zone at start of these fixtures we will be buried in it by the end of them.
If we are going to get the wins we need to stay up they need to come in next few weeks, not later in campaign.
Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 1 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 0 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 0 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 0 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A A 1 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 0 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 1 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 0 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 0 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 1 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 1
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Post by lostinspace on Feb 7, 2021 21:12:09 GMT
One more than the team in 21st position π
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 7, 2021 22:50:56 GMT
51 points should see us safe - that's been the benchmark for the last 11 completed seasons. Last shortened season with Bury not even starting, Bolton with a big points deduction and Southend totally hopeless, I think best not to even look at that data set. So currently we're on 24 points from 25 games. 0.96 per game So we need 27 points from the next 21 games. 1.28 per game I'll have a look tomorrow.
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harrybuckle
Always look on the bright side
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Post by harrybuckle on Feb 8, 2021 8:49:01 GMT
Can't see us taking a point from the Imps who are flying but pretty much agree totally with the predictions above.
Swindle Wigan Old Wombles gone for a Burton Cobblers The Dale and ourselves are in present danger of the drop.
I feel Le Tiss is fully aware of the points total his under performing charges need to achieve.i suspect he has said to them achieve total or you are gone with me come end of May.
Key to staying up The reintroduction of the flying Fin between the sticks. A defensive coach sorting out goals conceded from set peices, keeping Nicholson Hanlan Daly Williams Kilgour McCormick and Oztumer fit.
I am confident we can stay up.
Stay safe stay home buy the Pirate and keep the faith and subscribe to the forthcoming Alfie Biggs the Baron of Eastville publication.
UTG
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basel
Joined: May 2014
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Post by basel on Feb 8, 2021 9:07:26 GMT
One game at a time.
We did'nt concede against Fleetwood.
Daly & Hanlon could grow as an effective attacking pairing.
The players are playing for their careers.
I think we have a chance in any 3rd tier game and although it's one hell of a challenge, I still think we'll stay up.Whatever the points total needed.
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Post by o2o2bo2ba on Feb 8, 2021 10:28:30 GMT
At least half of the last 8 fixtures are going to be against promotion potentials, not including Ipswich.
A tough run in.
We have to get our @rse in gear quickly and get our business done by that final quarter of the season or it's relegation.
It's feeling very relegation familiar this season. We haven't learned the Lambo lesson and the squad is fractured and dysfunctional.
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 8, 2021 16:48:23 GMT
My prediction - Finish on 51 points. 18th - 20th. The last 8 games are tough as per o2o2bo2ba. The rest of this month is absolutely key in picking up points. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 3 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 1 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 3 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 1 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 1 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 0 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3
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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 8, 2021 20:20:30 GMT
My prediction - Finish on 51 points. 18th - 20th. The last 8 games are tough as per o2o2bo2ba. The rest of this month is absolutely key in picking up points. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 3 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 1 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 3 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 1 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 1 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 0 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3 we stay unbeaten for the next seven picking up 15 from 21 points? At Accrington last week a pub team could have beaten us
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 8, 2021 21:20:19 GMT
My prediction - Finish on 51 points. 18th - 20th. The last 8 games are tough as per o2o2bo2ba. The rest of this month is absolutely key in picking up points. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 3 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 1 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 3 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 1 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 1 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 0 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3 we stay unbeaten for the next seven picking up 15 from 21 points? At Accrington last week a pub team could have beaten us That was then. And this is now. The gist of my predictions is that we will get to 50-51 points (certainly more than 38!), but we need most of those points in the bag before we hit the home straight.
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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 9, 2021 0:06:03 GMT
we stay unbeaten for the next seven picking up 15 from 21 points? At Accrington last week a pub team could have beaten us That was then. And this is now. The gist of my predictions is that we will get to 50-51 points (certainly more than 38!), but we need most of those points in the bag before we hit the home straight. I agree with that last bit, I was the first person to say it on this thread. The only winnable seeming games are February. I agree with your last bit too. We need to get to 51. But I was being realistic. Unbeaten for 7 and 15 points from 21 will likely put us top of form table, as even promotion sides will struggle to match that. We have to look back I think to understand this relegation. The amount of points already squandered by soft goals, creationless in final third.
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JeffNZ
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Jimmy Morgan
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Post by JeffNZ on Feb 9, 2021 2:17:57 GMT
Taking a somewhat pessimistic/worse case view this is my guess: Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 1 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 1 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 0 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 1 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 0 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 0 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 1 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 3 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 0 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3 Saturday 8 May 2021 15:00 Blackpool A 1 Only 48 points but just enough to stay up according to this useful calculator: thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=3
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 9, 2021 9:24:49 GMT
1. I missed off the Blackpool fixture. So possibly another 1 or 3 points. 2. We're almost certain to pick up a unlikely wins along the way. They won't only be against the 'bottom 8 Clubs sort of thing'. 3. Rationale for 51 points (posted from the Fleetwood thread): "The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football".
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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 9, 2021 10:40:57 GMT
1. I missed off the Blackpool fixture. So possibly another 1 or 3 points. 2. We're almost certain to pick up a unlikely wins along the way. They won't only be against the 'bottom 8 Clubs sort of thing'. 3. Rationale for 51 points (posted from the Fleetwood thread): "The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football". is the Blackpool fixture TBA?
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 9, 2021 11:13:19 GMT
1. I missed off the Blackpool fixture. So possibly another 1 or 3 points. 2. We're almost certain to pick up a unlikely wins along the way. They won't only be against the 'bottom 8 Clubs sort of thing'. 3. Rationale for 51 points (posted from the Fleetwood thread): "The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football". is the Blackpool fixture TBA? JeffNZ arranged it. .
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
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Post by kingswood Polak on Feb 9, 2021 11:22:35 GMT
My prediction - Finish on 51 points. 18th - 20th. The last 8 games are tough as per o2o2bo2ba. The rest of this month is absolutely key in picking up points. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 3 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 1 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 3 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 1 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 1 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 0 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3 Iβd love to see this but those first 7 games seem overly positive. I think you may need to rewrite them after tonight
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eppinggas
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 9, 2021 12:15:58 GMT
My prediction - Finish on 51 points. 18th - 20th. The last 8 games are tough as per o2o2bo2ba. The rest of this month is absolutely key in picking up points. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 3 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 1 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 1 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 1 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A 3 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 1 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 3 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 1 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 1 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 0 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 3 Iβd love to see this but those first 7 games seem overly positive. I think you may need to rewrite them after tonight I've been called a fair few things over the years... but "overly positive" may possibly be a first... Maybe 3 points will be a stretch tonight, but I don't think we'll lose.
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
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Post by kingswood Polak on Feb 9, 2021 12:19:37 GMT
Iβd love to see this but those first 7 games seem overly positive. I think you may need to rewrite them after tonight I've been called a fair few things over the years... but "overly positive" may possibly be a first... Maybe 3 points will be a stretch tonight, but I don't think we'll lose. There is always a first time for everything Ian π. I hope you and your family are well and happy. Iβm off for the covid jab in an hour so I maybe able to type via the 5g link in the vaccine and the car will drive on my thoughts alone ππππππ
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Post by emperorsuperbus on Feb 12, 2021 13:29:06 GMT
Even awarding us the 3 points against Swindon and Wigan I have us sweating on 38 points. March and first week of April is a very difficult run of fixtures; if we are still flirting on limit of drop zone at start of these fixtures we will be buried in it by the end of them. If we are going to get the wins we need to stay up they need to come in next few weeks, not later in campaign. Tuesday 9 February 2021 19:00 Oxford Utd H 1 Saturday 13 February 2021 15:00 Swindon H 3 Tuesday 16 February 2021 19:00 Portsmouth H 0 Saturday 20 February 2021 13:00 Gillingham A 0 Tuesday 23 February 2021 19:00 Wigan H 3 Saturday 27 February 2021 15:00 Shrewsbury H 0 Tuesday 2 March 2021 19:00 Burton A A 1 Saturday 6 March 2021 15:00 Hull A 0 Tuesday 9 March 2021 19:45 Accrington H 0 Saturday 13 March 2021 15:00 Wimbledon H 1 Tuesday 16 March 2021 19:00 Charlton A 0 Saturday 20 March 2021 15:00 Plymouth A 0 Saturday 27 March 2021 15:00 Sunderland H 0 Friday 2 April 2021 15:00 Ipswich A 0 Monday 5 April 2021 15:00 Doncaster H 0 Saturday 10 April 2021 15:00 Northampton A 1 Saturday 17 April 2021 15:00 Lincoln H 1 Tuesday 20 April 2021 19:45 MK Dons H 1 Saturday 24 April 2021 15:00 Portsmouth A 1 Saturday 1 May 2021 15:00 Crewe H 1 I gave us 3 points from Swindon and Wigan and still had us ten or so points short of 51. the moment relegation is confirmed, please close the door behind you Tommy.
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basel
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 3,064
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Post by basel on Feb 12, 2021 13:33:41 GMT
One of our board members reckons we need to win 8 games,or get 24 points. So add that to our current total and that's their target.
Edit. Luckily I'm a mathematical genius and have worked out....
24 points we have + the 24 needed = 48 points to stay up.
According to one of the Board.
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