eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Sept 9, 2019 15:16:14 GMT
With only 23 teams in the Division this has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works as to what might be required to avoid relegation this season. I think we are more likely to be flirting with relegation again rather than pushing for the play-offs. So if 46 games requires 51 to be "relatively safe" that is 1.11 points per game Therefore 44 games at 1.11 points per game gives you 48.84 (or 49 for the sake of argument). We are currently averaging 1.14 point per game. Just the 41 points to go then. UTG! Average is 2 points at home and 0 away. Your figures skewed as played more at home than away. Current form shows on target for 44 points. Crikey - and I thought I was the pessimist! If we can keep up the home form and nick a couple of away wins (or more likely 6 0-0 draws) and that's 50 points. Bingo.
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Post by mangogas15 on Sept 9, 2019 21:42:32 GMT
Average is 2 points at home and 0 away. Your figures skewed as played more at home than away. Current form shows on target for 44 points. Crikey - and I thought I was the pessimist! If we can keep up the home form and nick a couple of away wins (or more likely 6 0-0 draws) and that's 50 points. Bingo. Is that excluding playing Bury twice? We need about 53 to be safe but would rather see us on that number by end of feb
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eppinggas
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Ian Alexander
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Post by eppinggas on Oct 7, 2022 9:50:32 GMT
**Stats are a couple of years out of date now **. But it is a pretty good indication of what is required to stay up this season (well any season). If players come back from injury and start to gel, and Rovers head towards mid-table, this will become irrelevant.
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall 2010-11). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. Bit of a statistical outlier that season. 51 is pretty safe. 1.109 PPG. Though Rovers did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011, an even poorer 38 points in 2020-21. 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football. And a bit of positive news - Rovers only get relegated to the 4th tier of English football when the year ends in a "1".
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oldie
Joined: September 2021
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Post by oldie on Oct 7, 2022 9:52:53 GMT
"And a bit of positive news - Rovers only get relegated to the 4th tier of English football when the year ends in a "1"."
Phew, safe!!!
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