warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Oct 29, 2017 5:10:50 GMT
As I’m bored sat in Sydney Airport waiting for our flight home thought I’d start a thread on the ashes for the 3/4 of us who might be interested in it. Having been in Oz since end of September I talked to lots of sports fans and cricket seems pretty low down on their sporting list. AFL, RL and even football rated much higher so perhaps David Warner’s talking about it being war was an att3mpt to build some interest in it. However, my son is going to the Melbourne test on Boxing Day with friends and tickets for the first few tests are sold out. They got tickets months ago. Perhaps I wasn’t talking to the right people! A few predictions. 1. It will be a close series even if the result is 3-1 or 4-1 or even 5-0 to whichever team. Each match will be close. 2. Amidst the worries about the English batting I think the bowling may struggle and Craig O will make his debut probably due to other injuries. 3. Joe Root will end series being one of the top batsmen in the world after a good series. Apart from these no idea what will happen!
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Oct 29, 2017 18:06:59 GMT
You sound like you are a bit more optimistic than me. I'm quite happy to buy into the idea that we overrating the Australians-I think this is quite standard in an Ashes series. It's in the interest of the hypemongers to make out that we are about to take on an all-conquering Aussie team instead of one that has a distinctly soft underbelly. I can see an argument which says that one more injury to one of their frontline bowlers and the Aussies will begin to look a bit thin across the board. We know they have issues with their batting lineup and we know that there are question marks about their bowling once the shine wears off. In addition, while on the face of it they have an advantage in the spin department, I'd be surprised if spin decided the series here which potentially negates one of their edges over us.
On the other hand I can't help but despair when I survey the England team. Given the huge amount of emphasis (far too much in my view) that the English cricket world seems to put on the Ashes we haven't half arrived at this contest looking massively undercooked. 3 spots in the top order up for grabs, our strong lower middle order looking like it's in tatters after the Stokes incident and our back up bowling looks light (not to mention we're asking the increasingly lengthening in the tooth Anderson and Broad to go back to the well one more time on punishing Australian surfaces). I just think we may have far more negatives than they do and to me that adds up to a comfortable win for the Aussies. I have some predictions.
1. I think this tour could be the making or breaking of Finn - in theory Aussie wickets should be perfect for him. In reality he has shown a fragile psychy in these situations. However, if he overcomes that there's no reason he shouldn't give Aussie batsman as much trouble as their bowlers cause ours in my view. 2. Moeen is key to this series for us. We'll need him to take a big step up with the bat I feel - possibly cementing his role as a latter-day English Adam Gilchrist. However, it's going to be tough going with the ball for him and given that our other spinner is Crane I really worry that we will not able to contain them at all. 3. I agree with you on Joe Root- I think he will lead from the front in a difficult series. 4. Stokes makes an appearance at some point and the Aussie media go into meltdown.
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jackthegas
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Post by jackthegas on Oct 30, 2017 22:23:24 GMT
I am not confident. Areas England could prosper though include the fact that even without Stokes we should have a strong lower middle order and we'll have 5 bowlers. We also have a better keeper. I am not absolutely convinced by Starc as a red ball bowler and I think Pattinson is a miss for them but talking up Australia's lack of strength in depth is a bit rich when I would have thought that Overton may replace Stokes. Can you imagine going into the first test without Anderson or Broad?
Cook, Root and Bairstow would get into a combined XI but I am not sure Malan or Vince would get into a combined second XI.
I think our bowling attack combined with their batting line up will be OK if England can score enough runs to build some pressure. If we're all out for less than 400 in our first innings then I think we'll struggle. Unfortunately I don't think we'll make 400 all that often.
Predictions usually make me look stupid and it would be easy to play it safe here and go for Root and Smith to score lots of runs but that's no fun.
1) Stoneman to cement his place in the side 2) Cummins leading wicket taker 3) Hanscomb to score a lot of runs 4) Australia to regain the urn by the end of the 3rd test
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 9, 2017 22:06:15 GMT
I don’t know if I’m confident but I think it will be close. The past few weeks have made the situation a bit worse for England I think. Finn definitely out injured and Ball perhaps out for a time. But a few pluses Overton and Crane getting a few wickets And the batsmen, Cook excepted, getting some runs. Mind you Starc with a couple of hat-tricks must be high on confidence. I hope you’re right about Stoneman jack, if he can cement his place early on that would be a good sign and might auger well for the series. Regarding Stokes am I right in thinking that we have to wait for the CPS to decide if there is a case to answer before we know the likelihood of him playing? If he is thought to be innocent he comes out if charged then he doesn’t, is that correct? I hope the players are being given a stronger message. If they are expecting him “at some time” then that uncertainty may be a bit off putting. Whatever the position is there is no one to replace him at the moment. The most likely positions will either be that Woakes comes in, they play a second spinner (unlikely in view of the likely pitches) or even playing an extra bowler, Overton or Ball. Sounds as if I’m grasping at straws!! We’ll soon find out!
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Nov 14, 2017 21:48:58 GMT
I don’t know if I’m confident but I think it will be close. The past few weeks have made the situation a bit worse for England I think. Finn definitely out injured and Ball perhaps out for a time. But a few pluses Overton and Crane getting a few wickets And the batsmen, Cook excepted, getting some runs. Mind you Starc with a couple of hat-tricks must be high on confidence. I hope you’re right about Stoneman jack, if he can cement his place early on that would be a good sign and might auger well for the series. Regarding Stokes am I right in thinking that we have to wait for the CPS to decide if there is a case to answer before we know the likelihood of him playing? If he is thought to be innocent he comes out if charged then he doesn’t, is that correct? I hope the players are being given a stronger message. If they are expecting him “at some time” then that uncertainty may be a bit off putting. Whatever the position is there is no one to replace him at the moment. The most likely positions will either be that Woakes comes in, they play a second spinner (unlikely in view of the likely pitches) or even playing an extra bowler, Overton or Ball. Sounds as if I’m grasping at straws!! We’ll soon find out! I think that your confidence that it will be close defies the description of the situation afterwards!
From where I sit now it looks like a bit of a shambles in the making - but who knows there maybe a whiff of 1986/87 about this lot and about Australia (ie they may not be as good as media on both sides are making out). There's something to be said for blind optimism I suppose.....I like to think it can't possibly be as bad as the last time we went down there.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 15, 2017 10:07:41 GMT
Certainly not blind optimism Irish although following Somerset over the years blind optimism has been a requisite attribute we’ve all needed! The truth is it could be very close in each match and we still lose 0-4 or 1-4 when there is not much between the teams. Both teams are bowling well and all the English players are taking wickets except for Broad. And I suspect the Ashes will get him going and he’ll be fine. Our batsmen have scored without scoring really big but then neither has theirs. I guess any test series is a shambles in the making but apart from the Ben Stokes situation which is not, on this occasion, of the ECB/ MCCs making i don’t know what else come have been done. Yes, perhaps the selection of players is always a bit controversial but the batting department looks like a fairly bare cupboard at the moment. The Australians, as ever, have given us two lifeless pitches for our warm up matches which do not resemble what we will face in Brisbane but I doubt we expected any different. And I loved Moeen Ali’s response to David Warner’s jibe. The build up from the English side is very much in keeping with the captains approach isn’t it? Being very quiet, smiling at the criticism and just getting on with the playing. Whether it’s good enough we will soon learn! I hope the reason for Bairstow retiring from the field today isn’t too serious.
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Captain Jayho
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Post by Captain Jayho on Nov 17, 2017 7:14:47 GMT
5-0 to Australia. Bookmark it.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 17, 2017 22:56:20 GMT
5-0 to Australia. Bookmark it. You sound a lot more confident about Australia winning 5-0 than the press in Oz do! They don’t appear very happy with the Australians chosen for the first and second tests. Recalling Paine after so long out is a strange one! Not long to wait now.
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Captain Jayho
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Post by Captain Jayho on Nov 17, 2017 23:25:35 GMT
5-0 to Australia. Bookmark it. You sound a lot more confident about Australia winning 5-0 than the press in Oz do! They don’t appear very happy with the Australians chosen for the first and second tests. Recalling Paine after so long out is a strange one! Not long to wait now. Yeah the press love a good whinge. Watch their bowlers rip through our batting though. You can't win games with sub 200 scores of which we will get plenty.
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Nov 20, 2017 12:16:09 GMT
The way it looks right now I think both Captains may well be hoping they lose the toss on Thursday! I honestly think there is a decent case for bowling first - and yes I know what happened last time we did that.....
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Captain Jayho
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Post by Captain Jayho on Nov 20, 2017 20:32:05 GMT
The weather looks non-ideal for batting for most of the five days right now to be honest! But I agree, I'd rather hope to bowl them out for a low score first up and try and get a bit of confidence into the team rather than we bat, get rolled and we're straight on the back foot.
If we could avoid bowling to the slip cordon in the first over that would also help confidence...
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 21, 2017 13:02:29 GMT
Unless the pitch looks poor to win the toss and put the other side in would be brave. With two sides weaker batting wise it must be tempting but I don’t know if it gives the correct message to your own batsmen. But I guess if the conditions warrant bowling then you bowl. And hope Warner isn’t 120 not out at tea! It looks like the Aussies are trying to outmouth each other with Nathan Lyon starting to sound off. He’s always come across as one of the quieter players. You could interpret it both ways, sounding off to try and build the pressure on England and worry them or sounding off is a way that shows they are a bit worried and are trying to deflect attention away from the Aussie team. Only two days to wait now. Mind you if England do bowl first Jayho you are correct a nice straight ball rather than one ending up at third slip would be good.
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Nov 21, 2017 13:54:36 GMT
Unless the pitch looks poor to win the toss and put the other side in would be brave. With two sides weaker batting wise it must be tempting but I don’t know if it gives the correct message to your own batsmen. But I guess if the conditions warrant bowling then you bowl. And hope Warner isn’t 120 not out at tea! It looks like the Aussies are trying to outmouth each other with Nathan Lyon starting to sound off. He’s always come across as one of the quieter players. You could interpret it both ways, sounding off to try and build the pressure on England and worry them or sounding off is a way that shows they are a bit worried and are trying to deflect attention away from the Aussie team. Only two days to wait now. Mind you if England do bowl first Jayho you are correct a nice straight ball rather than one ending up at third slip would be good. I wasn't really being serious - I don't think there is a hope in hell of either captain bowling first despite the bravado about the bowling attacks. I'm tempted to argue that Cummins and Starc might not be the all powerful super-duper threat they are being bigged up as. Some perspective might be required - we're not about to face Lillee and Johnson or Lee and Mcgrath in their primes here. On the other hand you could have been saying exactly the same thing about Mitchell Johnson ahead of the last dig I suppose.....
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 21, 2017 16:53:51 GMT
You’re right irish. Win the toss and be 90-1 at lunch would be a good start but perhaps I’m being a bit optimistic. It’s a bit of a phoney war at the moment with Australia throwing the words and England laughing at them. Starc and Cummings are good but not yet in the class of McGrath, Lilley or even Thompson yet but a good ashes and they could be catapulted up there. Hazelwood might be the one with more swing and more control. I guess the verbal attack from the Aussies is to try and unsettle Stoneman, Malan and anyone else new to this form of cricket. I suspect Cook, Root, Anderson and Broad will laugh it off. We’ll soon know.
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Captain Jayho
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Post by Captain Jayho on Nov 21, 2017 23:18:08 GMT
Starc is an absolute gun, he will destroy our batting line-up several times over given the chance. He has come a long way in the last few years in all formats. Cummins is pretty meh, I put him in the spud category for a long time but he does have raw pace no doubt. I don't really rate his control so unless he's taking wickets I don't think he can hold up an end that well. He may not need to if Starc and Hazlewood are firing though. He can hit the ball hard coming in down the order mind you.
I stand by my comments though. If we put ourselves in to bat at the Gabba on any kind of ropey conditions we will lose the series on the first day. Confidence is massive when England play in Australia. It's a bloody hard place to come and play and they can get into our heads very quickly with a bad start. 2010 is the only time we've really fired a shot in Australia in 20 odd years and that was when we had a hugely settled side that was brimming with confidence and experienced players and with a decent build-up. The build-up to this series has been shambolic in comparison.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Nov 23, 2017 12:09:59 GMT
I think it was a good first day for England. Watched first session and most of the last session. Bowlers bowled well and kept it tight but I thought Stoneman and Vince played very well and didn’t look unduly worried by the bowlers. They bowled well without worrying the batsmen, and Lyon was the pick. But quite slow and rightly I think England want to make sure they bat long and slow and take up time so they can go to Adelaide unbeaten. Tactically, England aren’t going to engage with the Aussies and will turn away, look away and not participate in any kind of mind games. Both Stoneman and Vince looked as if they were going to leave any ball not on the wicket. One stat they said was Stoneman left alone about one third of his deliveries and let them go through to the keeper. It was a shame they lost those wickets in the last session because they would have been looking at 450+ if they hadn’t. Now 350-400 will be a very good score I would think and more likely to be 300-350 which won’t be a disaster. As ever the first hour tomorrow will be very important. Get to 260-6 at lunch won’t be a disaster. The run out was a real shame both for the team and Vince, had he got a hundred rather than ending his test career as Lyon predicted it would have made his career. Still a very good knock from which he and the team can take a lot of confidence. Stoneman looked very secure as did Root until two very good balls from Cummins. Overall pretty good day and heartening performance for the team. If England had taken the new ball in England in those dark conditions and then the umpires had taken the teams off, esp when the spinner had been the pick of the bowlers and causing us problems, the captain would have been pilloried in the press and said to have made a big mistake. I wonder what the Australian press make of Smith’s decision to take the new ball followed by the umpires decision to end play, I didn’t hear all the after match stuff but the in-play commentators didn’t say much. I thought it was a mistake by Smith.
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jackthegas
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Post by jackthegas on Nov 23, 2017 13:43:53 GMT
I saw about as much cricket as Wareham. Highest quality test cricket I've seen for a while i think. It looked like a difficult pitch to score on to me and I think England did the right thing in looking to play low risk cricket. Had Root and Vince stayed in for longer then maybe the last session might have been time to step on the accelerator, but having lost those 3 quick wickets, I think England will have to get through until lunch tomorrow 4 or 5 down before they start to think about pushing on.
Lyon bowled really well and he is key for them. Having a spinner who is a threat and also economical means they can afford to play 4 bowlers. I'd like to see us use our feet a bit more to him next time out though. We can't just let him bowl, nor should we try and smack him out of the ground. Other than getting out(!) one of e biggest issues with almost every batsman who has stepped up from first class cricket is that they struggle to rotate the strike. They can put the bad ball away but they are a rarity in test cricket. The drop and run into the covers is an underrated shot.
It was an encouraging day but we need to score at least 400 before I feel safe. 300 to 350 leaves the door open for the Aussies. I think the pitch will quicken up and it's spinning so if they got 400 in reply to our 320 we'd be under big pressure in the 3rd innings.
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Captain Jayho
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Post by Captain Jayho on Nov 23, 2017 18:45:56 GMT
Great effort by Stoneman and Vince who batted patiently and watchfully. A start well beyond my expectations!
However this wicket is very unusual for the gabba and the Aussie quicks will be fuming at the lack of bounce and carry.
A very important day of cricket coming up today.
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Nov 24, 2017 0:40:39 GMT
I agree with all that. Vince was particularly impressive because he showed the ability to turn the pressure onto the Aussie Bowlers as well as just surprise.
This England team should always be happy to be around 200 with 5/6 wickets in hand because it is that lower middle order that is our main strength and you want to set them up to put us in a winning position. Survive the early New Ball blast and they have every chance of getting a 400+ score here.
Was surprised how much it turns- I wonder if that is deliberate. That Aussies think that is an area they have the edge on us - if so I'm not sure they're right. Lyon is a better bowler than Moen but I'm not sure he's series winning better and a turning pitch might actually reduce the difference between them.
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jackthegas
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Post by jackthegas on Nov 24, 2017 10:13:05 GMT
This England team should always be happy to be around 200 with 5/6 wickets in hand because it is that lower middle order that is our main strength and you want to set them up to put us in a winning position. Survive the early New Ball blast and they have every chance of getting a 400+ score here. With Stokes in the side yes. With Moeen at 6, Woakes at 8 and then the bowlers I am not so sure. If you compare positions 6-11, Bairstow at 7 is the only position we have a clear edge. If you'd have said Stoneman, Vince and Malan will all get 50s and 9-11 score 35 between them I think most would have assumed we'd get 400 plus. Unfortunately our shoe-in's haven't really contributed and I think the balance is marginally with Australia at present. Along with the batting, the other question going into the series was whether we could take wickets with the old ball. The signs so far aren't too promising in that regard.#
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