eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,191
|
Post by eppinggas on Mar 30, 2024 18:12:48 GMT
Reform moved up 3 points to 16 % of the vote with labour down 4 points to 40% , a lot of experts are now predicting labour won’t get a majority Lots of mates moving from tories / labour to reform , labour mp on radio saying to vote for them not reform , if nothing else it’s got the two big parties to realise we’ve had enough of them . Reform support comes mostly from disaffected Tories. The better Reform do, the worse the Tories do. A Labour majority is nailed on if Reform poll over 10% IMHO. The odds on the Tories losing over 200 seats is now 1-2. It was as wide as 13-8 mid February... The one I can't quite work out is the odds on Reform getting over 9% of the vote share is 11-8. They are 4-7 to get under 9%. This does not add up. I can't see Tories going back to the Conservatives. The Reform vote share has been stable at 10-11%. Should have an upside.
|
|
ltdgas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 346
|
Post by ltdgas on Apr 1, 2024 18:34:01 GMT
Reform moved up 3 points to 16 % of the vote with labour down 4 points to 40% , a lot of experts are now predicting labour won’t get a majority Lots of mates moving from tories / labour to reform , labour mp on radio saying to vote for them not reform , if nothing else it’s got the two big parties to realise we’ve had enough of them . Reform support comes mostly from disaffected Tories. The better Reform do, the worse the Tories do. A Labour majority is nailed on if Reform poll over 10% IMHO. The odds on the Tories losing over 200 seats is now 1-2. It was as wide as 13-8 mid February... The one I can't quite work out is the odds on Reform getting over 9% of the vote share is 11-8. They are 4-7 to get under 9%. This does not add up. I can't see Tories going back to the Conservatives. The Reform vote share has been stable at 10-11%. Should have an upside. I’ve got that feeling Epping the thought of a Labour Party will result in a lot going back to the tories , apparently according to d. Lammy on lbc there a huge amount of voters who have not made there mind up yet , he said this ( mind not made up ) & reform vote going back to tories means he doesn’t believe it’s the forgone conclusion everyone thinks it will be . My vote 100% stays reform , I get what he’s saying but still struggling to see past a Labour goverment
|
|
Nobbygas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 2,804
Member is Online
|
Post by Nobbygas on Apr 2, 2024 8:30:26 GMT
As I said earlier, I believe Nigel Farage is just waiting for the election date to be announced, and he will become the leader of Reform. This will give them a huge bounce in the vote share, plus give them momentum in the lead-up to the election. Labour's huge lead could start to be reduced when they publish their manifesto. I think when their policies start to be scrutinized we'll see that they are also a busted flush. Labour will win the election though.
|
|
eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,191
|
Post by eppinggas on Apr 2, 2024 9:19:03 GMT
As I said earlier, I believe Nigel Farage is just waiting for the election date to be announced, and he will become the leader of Reform. This will give them a huge bounce in the vote share, plus give them momentum in the lead-up to the election. Labour's huge lead could start to be reduced when they publish their manifesto. I think when their policies start to be scrutinized we'll see that they are also a busted flush. Labour will win the election though. The latest Survation poll has Tories winning less than 100 seats. Lab 45%, Tories 19%. They 'probably' won't do that badly - but I'm still chuffed I stuck money on that happening at 7-1! (Currently 5-2). Reform don't poll as well as they have been elsewhere. Only 8.5% here, but winning 7 seats. I agree that Farage is absolutely key to Reform. Like him or loathe him - he will have a big say on how badly the Tories will do. Ladbrokes still have Reform polling 9% or more at 11/8. Surely that will crash below evens when (not if, but when) Farage makes his move. Another reason I think Reform will do well is that there is a decent percentage of the population who are sick of the perceived 'woke' culture. They could well be motivated to stick two fingers up to the establishment. A little bit like some of the Trump supporters. That's not me having a right wing bias. That's me hearing what is being said in the real world. Westminster, the BBC and Channel 4 do not report what is being said in the real world. Because it does not fit their far left wing bias and narrative.
|
|
bluetornados
Predictions League
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 12,450
|
Post by bluetornados on Apr 2, 2024 13:48:52 GMT
As I said earlier, I believe Nigel Farage is just waiting for the election date to be announced, and he will become the leader of Reform. This will give them a huge bounce in the vote share, plus give them momentum in the lead-up to the election. Labour's huge lead could start to be reduced when they publish their manifesto. I think when their policies start to be scrutinized we'll see that they are also a busted flush. Labour will win the election though. The latest Survation poll has Tories winning less than 100 seats. Lab 45%, Tories 19%. They 'probably' won't do that badly - but I'm still chuffed I stuck money on that happening at 7-1! (Currently 5-2). Reform don't poll as well as they have been elsewhere. Only 8.5% here, but winning 7 seats. I agree that Farage is absolutely key to Reform. Like him or loathe him - he will have a big say on how badly the Tories will do. Ladbrokes still have Reform polling 9% or more at 11/8. Surely that will crash below evens when (not if, but when) Farage makes his move. Another reason I think Reform will do well is that there is a decent percentage of the population who are sick of the perceived 'woke' culture. They could well be motivated to stick two fingers up to the establishment. A little bit like some of the Trump supporters. That's not me having a right wing bias. That's me hearing what is being said in the real world. Westminster, the BBC and Channel 4 do not report what is being said in the real world. Because it does not fit their far left wing bias and narrative. Agree with the underlined comment, Farage is a big draw like him or not, lots of people still like him, Boris and in the USA Trump, they are popular....
|
|
eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,191
|
Post by eppinggas on Apr 5, 2024 8:58:18 GMT
Reform still polling well. The last 3 opinion polls have them at 13, 14 and 12% respectively. The YouGov poll had a very large sample size and delivered Reform at 12%. Odds on Reform getting 9% or more of the vote has tightened into 11/10 (Ladbrokes). Unless Reform do a deal with the Tories (which I think is highly unlikely), this has to tighten as we approach the election. Says he with an increasing exposure to the bookies with regard to a decent Reform performance :-)
|
|
baselswh
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 4,562
Member is Online
|
Post by baselswh on Apr 12, 2024 16:39:51 GMT
GB News, the favoured trash outlet for lovers of the Reform Party, has broken Ofcom rules. Again. After finding a classic example of rank misogyny "funny", leading Tories and favourites to abscond to Reform in "quiet desperation" (Pink Floyd) the Minister for the 18th Century and his fruit cake accomplice, the Minister for Common Sense (couldn't make that up could you, have been found to have broken the rules. BBC News - GB News shows hosted by MPs broke Ofcom rules www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-68596973and this is where OFCOM are seen to be falling apart. What about Labour politicians like Lammy or Jess Phillips who present shows on LBC? Not a squeak about them. Lammy is being investigated now I believe.
|
|
ltdgas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 346
|
Post by ltdgas on Apr 13, 2024 7:40:40 GMT
and this is where OFCOM are seen to be falling apart. What about Labour politicians like Lammy or Jess Phillips who present shows on LBC? Not a squeak about them. Lammy is being investigated now I believe. Yes he is , something I often wondered about as often listen to His show on a Sunday
|
|
ltdgas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 346
|
Post by ltdgas on Apr 26, 2024 17:45:13 GMT
Had a visit from the local reform candidate , really nice lad , Flyer Britain needs reform Stop the boats Higher wages Freeze immigration Zero waiting lists Cheaper energy Confirmed I’m right in voting for them , but not this time , as vote is 2 nd may , I’ll be in hospital , but said you’ll 100% have my vote come general election , wife is to , lad said majority in culdesac are backing reform , thought they would , lad deserves it , came across really well , and certainly not your leftie diverse / multicultural crap
|
|
trymer
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,487
|
Post by trymer on Apr 26, 2024 17:58:13 GMT
Had a visit from the local reform candidate , really nice lad , Flyer Britain needs reform Stop the boats Higher wages Freeze immigration Zero waiting lists Cheaper energy Confirmed I’m right in voting for them , but not this time , as vote is 2 nd may , I’ll be in hospital , but said you’ll 100% have my vote come general election , wife is to , lad said majority in culdesac are backing reform , thought they would , lad deserves it , came across really well , and certainly not your leftie diverse / multicultural crap Sounds good,I have my voter registration certificate so if we have a Reform candidate I will vote for him/her...if not it will be a spoilt paper again.
|
|
ltdgas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 346
|
Post by ltdgas on Apr 28, 2024 15:22:08 GMT
Reform candidate for police & crime commissioners ( pccs) perspective & plans List of his priorities 1. Cut all council tax towards the office of the pcc to Zero- saving each household £200-£600 a year 2. Provide people with face to face contact to address concerns / complaints about the police 3. Increase in visible policing - boots on the ground 4. Disband the office of the police & crime commissioner 5. Ban all police officers from dancing while on duty / in uniform 6. Trim the fat of middle management in the police 7 review all outsourced service to the police and make cuts across the board 8 stop to police investigating , non crime hate incidents and focus on actual crimes 9 move hiring policy away from diversity hires and university programmed graduates to hiring the best candidates for the job 10 stop any police policies that move the county towards a police state 11 zero tolerance approach to crime 12 stop existing green policies or move towards Net-Zero 13 stop woke policing I’d put the tory / labour / Lib Dem policies up , but there the same old , same old I’m really impressed , he’s really thought about what he intends to do to make policing better , this woke , appeasing terroists, dancing has to stop , the police are turning into a lefty laughing stock , hope he wins
|
|
baselswh
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 4,562
Member is Online
|
Post by baselswh on Apr 28, 2024 16:24:56 GMT
Reform candidate for police & crime commissioners ( pccs) perspective & plans List of his priorities 1. Cut all council tax towards the office of the pcc to Zero- saving each household £200-£600 a year 2. Provide people with face to face contact to address concerns / complaints about the police 3. Increase in visible policing - boots on the ground 4. Disband the office of the police & crime commissioner 5. Ban all police officers from dancing while on duty / in uniform 6. Trim the fat of middle management in the police 7 review all outsourced service to the police and make cuts across the board 8 stop to police investigating , non crime hate incidents and focus on actual crimes 9 move hiring policy away from diversity hires and university programmed graduates to hiring the best candidates for the job 10 stop any police policies that move the county towards a police state 11 zero tolerance approach to crime 12 stop existing green policies or move towards Net-Zero 13 stop woke policing I’d put the tory / labour / Lib Dem policies up , but there the same old , same old I’m really impressed , he’s really thought about what he intends to do to make policing better , this woke , appeasing terroists, dancing has to stop , the police are turning into a lefty laughing stock , hope he wins 9,10,11,12 and 13. 👏👏👏
|
|
ltdgas
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 346
|
Post by ltdgas on Apr 28, 2024 16:43:53 GMT
Reform candidate for police & crime commissioners ( pccs) perspective & plans List of his priorities 1. Cut all council tax towards the office of the pcc to Zero- saving each household £200-£600 a year 2. Provide people with face to face contact to address concerns / complaints about the police 3. Increase in visible policing - boots on the ground 4. Disband the office of the police & crime commissioner 5. Ban all police officers from dancing while on duty / in uniform 6. Trim the fat of middle management in the police 7 review all outsourced service to the police and make cuts across the board 8 stop to police investigating , non crime hate incidents and focus on actual crimes 9 move hiring policy away from diversity hires and university programmed graduates to hiring the best candidates for the job 10 stop any police policies that move the county towards a police state 11 zero tolerance approach to crime 12 stop existing green policies or move towards Net-Zero 13 stop woke policing I’d put the tory / labour / Lib Dem policies up , but there the same old , same old I’m really impressed , he’s really thought about what he intends to do to make policing better , this woke , appeasing terroists, dancing has to stop , the police are turning into a lefty laughing stock , hope he wins 9,10,11,12 and 13. 👏👏👏 5 , I’m gobsmacked at , dancing while on duty , but as has been said the police force have been taken over by the woke liberal lefties 🙄
|
|
eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,191
|
Post by eppinggas on May 3, 2024 12:06:15 GMT
5 , I’m gobsmacked at , dancing while on duty , but as has been said the police force have been taken over by the woke liberal lefties 🙄 Oh - that's very harsh. People in the Met spend a long time learning the dance moves to 'the macarena'. It's simply beastly to suggest they will no longer be allowed to perform this in public whilst on duty. I am reminded of the late Great Windsor Davies in 'It ain't half hot Mum'. Whilst addressing the troupe in drag. "Disgusting! Never have I seen such a blatant display of poufery. Never in all my life".
|
|
baselswh
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 4,562
Member is Online
|
Post by baselswh on May 4, 2024 9:15:23 GMT
Farage was saying at the UKIP election that he led,the Conservatives could still win coming up to voting day.So some right wing voters still voted Conservative instead of UKIP.That way they could have a right wing Government and keep Labour out.
It appears the Conservatives have very little chance of remaining in power after the upcoming GE.So,right wing voters will not have a Government.So why not vote Reform ,gain a few seats in Parliament and be heard.
Then,the real fun for Reform might begin in the GE after next.
|
|
eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,191
|
Post by eppinggas on May 7, 2024 10:53:06 GMT
Farage was saying at the UKIP election that he led,the Conservatives could still win coming up to voting day.So some right wing voters still voted Conservative instead of UKIP.That way they could have a right wing Government and keep Labour out. It appears the Conservatives have very little chance of remaining in power after the upcoming GE.So,right wing voters will not have a Government.So why not vote Reform ,gain a few seats in Parliament and be heard. Then,the real fun for Reform might begin in the GE after next. Can't see Reform winning a seat at the GC. You would be able to get very good odds on that! I agree though, it does is position themselves for the future. A likely disastrous GE for the Tories will lead to yet more in-fighting. And Reform could well gain ground. Under Labour the floodgates will open on immigration. It's been bad enough under the Tories for the last few years. It will get much worse. The Conservatives are not the solution. Neither are Labour.
|
|