eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,109
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 1, 2019 11:56:32 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football. We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game. We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game. UTG.
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 10,255
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Post by kingswood Polak on Feb 1, 2019 12:03:45 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football. We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game. We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game. UTG. We need to either kick into a Trollope type promotion push because, as it is, we will not just be looking for the points you and I hope for but will be hoping others flounder. I wish I could get enthused enough to be able to see us staying up but I just don’t see it happening. It was our home form that saw us do well but that has deserted us this season. We need to see a dramatic turnaround. Who knows, maybe the new players will do well ?
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harrybuckle
Always look on the bright side
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,412
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Post by harrybuckle on Feb 1, 2019 12:59:44 GMT
Those stats have not cheered me up on a snowy day !
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2019 13:34:47 GMT
Those stats have not cheered me up on a snowy day ! Cheer up Harry. We are presently getting 1 point per-game. We need to continue with that, and manage an additional 5 points in the remaining 17 games to finish on 51. We can do that. Or, since the new manager took over, I make it 15 points from 9 games, 1.66 per-game, based on that, we'll achieve 17 x 1.66 = 28 more points and end the season with 57 points. Then we can do the whole ridiculous fire fighting thing again, and again, until, eventually, just like last time we got were on a downwards spiral, we run out of luck and end up relegated. Evolution my arse!
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Feb 1, 2019 13:43:34 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). Thanks epping, you've cheered me up! I've been working on an assumed target of 54, without checking, so in effect you've just thrown in a win and a draw that we no longer need to get between now and May!
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Post by a more piratey game on Feb 1, 2019 14:09:36 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). Thanks epping, you've cheered me up! I've been working on an assumed target of 54, without checking, so in effect you've just thrown in a win and a draw that we no longer need to get between now and May! enough of all this - you have clearly both merged into one online persona with two logins
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simonj
Archie Stevens
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 817
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Post by simonj on Feb 1, 2019 14:20:43 GMT
49 with the goal difference.
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Feb 1, 2019 15:27:48 GMT
Thanks epping, you've cheered me up! I've been working on an assumed target of 54, without checking, so in effect you've just thrown in a win and a draw that we no longer need to get between now and May! enough of all this - you have clearly both merged into one online persona with two logins Nobody has seen me in shorts since 1986!
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eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,109
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Post by eppinggas on Feb 1, 2019 15:36:09 GMT
I am actually in two minds about breaking with a 15 year tradition and actually wearing 'grown ups' long trousers to Southend tomorrow. I'll see how bitterly cold Parkrun is at 9am and take it from there...
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Post by downendgashead on Feb 2, 2019 19:24:56 GMT
Lots of footie to be played yet chaps, anything could happen.
Been much better the last 2 games.
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warehamgas
Predictions League
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 3,419
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Post by warehamgas on Feb 3, 2019 5:07:17 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football. We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game. We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game. UTG. Well done epping, well researched. I suppose, and correct me if I’m wrong, but the closer it is and the mor3 clubs involved in the battle the greater the likelihood of any team beating another team and so getting more points. So, I’ve been assuming that because it is so close we will all likely pick up points so we will need 53 to be assured of safety. The stats seem to disagree with me so I’m probably wrong. But if it’s 51 points, 22 needed = 7 wins 1 draw 9 defeats, 6 wins 4 draws 7 defeats etc. if it’s 52, 23 needed = 7 wins 2 draws 8 defeats, 6 wins 5 draws 6 defeats if it’s 53, 24 needed = 8 wins 9 defeats, 7 wins 3 draws 7 defeats, 6 wins 6 draws 5 defeats Its going to be close and we need every win we can get. UTG!
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Post by CabbagePatchBlues on Feb 3, 2019 6:05:31 GMT
It's a very inconsistent league. Plymouth looked doomed but have got themselves to mid table. Oxford are very up and down and Scunny fell like a stone to second from bottom after something like eight defeats in a row but turned it around and are now mid table again. Rochdale also suffered defeat after defeat, but seem to be recovering after going second from bottom, a position that Shrewsbury now occupy after a poor run. Gillingham have also fallen into the mix. We look the most consistent at the moment and a win against Shrewsbury would really boost morale, but nobody seems to stay second from bottom long...
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Post by laughinggas on Feb 3, 2019 9:00:46 GMT
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irishrover
Global Moderator
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 3,372
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Post by irishrover on Feb 4, 2019 14:30:34 GMT
That's good stuff. 50/51 points should do it then although looking at the relative parity and tightness in the bottom 3rd of the table this might be one of those seasons where a few more points than usual are needed.
As an aside I do not understand why we still have 4 up/4 down between League 1 and League 2 only. I know why they originally did it but it looks like an anachronism now. Why not just regularise it all the way down to the Conference? Obviously self-interest would imply that we should want it regularised at 3 but actually I'd have no issue if they settled at 4 across the board as there's nothing wrong with a bit more turnover. But I do not understand why 4 teams down from League 1 only remains a thing.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2019 15:13:54 GMT
I've said it a few times, I think this season is an anomaly in our league. The gap between 8th and 23rd is only 12 points, I still think anyone in that area of the table isn't safe. No one is pulling away, it's just very congested. I don't think there's much point in looking at the points total, just win as many as possible and put bodies in between us and the relegation zone.
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kingswood Polak
Without music life would be a mistake
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 10,255
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Post by kingswood Polak on Feb 4, 2019 15:53:13 GMT
I've said it a few times, I think this season is an anomaly in our league. The gap between 8th and 23rd is only 12 points, I still think anyone in that area of the table isn't safe. No one is pulling away, it's just very congested. I don't think there's much point in looking at the points total, just win as many as possible and put bodies in between us and the relegation zone. That’s spot on. Nothing to add to that
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LPGas
Stuart Taylor
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,240
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Post by LPGas on Feb 5, 2019 12:30:57 GMT
Shame we ddn't sack him a month before. Interestingly we don't hear the "DC wold have kept us up" very much
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2019 13:23:49 GMT
Darrell Clarke would have kept us up.
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harrybuckle
Always look on the bright side
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,412
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Post by harrybuckle on Feb 5, 2019 17:19:52 GMT
Darrell Clarke would have kept us up. with assistance from Marcus
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eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,109
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Post by eppinggas on Apr 27, 2019 8:25:27 GMT
The average number of points obtained by Clubs staying up (20th place) in the last 10 years is 50.2 The average number of points that 'could' have seen them stay up in the last 10 years is 48.9 (ignoring goal difference) The largest number of points obtained that still saw a Club relegated is 50 (Gills 2009-2010, Notts Cty 2014-2015, Oldham 2017-2018). The lowest number of points obtained that saw a Club survive was 48 (Walsall). The lowest number of points that 'could' have seen a Club survive was 44 in 2011-2012. 51 is pretty safe. (Though we did manage to achieve 51 in 2001-2001 and still went down. A poor 45 points in 2010-2011). 50 and it's sort of 1/3 chance of relegation. 49 and it's not looking good. 48 and below - very probably League 2 football. We have 29 points from 29 games. So 1 point a game. We will need 51 to be 'pretty safe'... 22 points from 17 games. 1.29 points a game. UTG. It's 'interesting' (well maybe I should get out more) - that despite a very congested lower half of the Division, 51 remains the target as this guarantees us safety (with our goal difference). Probably.
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