bs5
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Post by bs5 on Mar 7, 2017 7:34:42 GMT
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 7, 2017 8:47:06 GMT
Ten to go, you never know - Can Bristol Rovers sneak a play-off place?
By JamesMcNamara | Posted: March 06, 2017
Bristol Rovers breathed new life into their bid for an unlikely top six finish with an impressive performance and result in victory at Oxford United on Saturday.
Rovers came into 8/1 for a top six finish with league sponsors SkyBet after jumping three places in the League One table to eighth. They are seven behind sixth-place Millwall with 10 games left to play.
Most supporters had the remainder of Rovers' season down as one to be played out to what would be a commendable mid-table finish.
Rovers' fate has gone right to the wire in every season since they finished 14th in League Two under the leadership of John Ward in 2012/13.
Some supporters may be pleased of a break from the suspense – but Darrell Clarke refuses to "rule anything out" and is determined to keep the campaign alive for as long as possible.
The manager accepts that his side have to go on a winning streak of "three or four games" to leave themselves in a realistically challenging position going into the final month of the campaign.
Past history suggests that 73 or 74 points is required to secure a play-off place – meaning Rovers need another 22 points at least between now and the end of the season.
Here the Post looks at the final ten games of the campaign and tries to predict whether rank outsiders Rovers, who are currently eight games unbeaten and strong at home, could surprise everyone with a late dash for the top six.
March 11 – Southend United (h) – If Rovers are to have any chance of upsetting the applecart, a victory over seventh-placed Southend at the Memorial Stadium on Saturday is pretty much essential. Southend have been ticking along under the radar and have recently enjoyed impressive victories away from home at Oxford United and Peterborough United. But Rovers have been strong at the Memorial Stadium all season – Three points.
March 14 – Bury (a) – This represents a harder game than it would have less than a month ago. Bury have been resurgent under new manager Lee Clark after winning three of his four games in charge. This could be the potential banana skin in among the final ten games – Nil points.
March 18 – Chesterfield (h) – New manager Gary Caldwell has failed to have a similar impact to that which Clark has had at Bury. The match against Swindon on Saturday was Caldwell's first victory since taking over eight games ago. Their current situation looks perilous and it is unlikely to be improved at the Memorial Stadium. – Three points.
March 25 – Coventry (a) – The Premiership years are well and truly behind Coventry these days and they look destined to be playing in the League Two next season. They have appointed Mark Robins to replace Russell Slade, but that move looks to be a case of too little, too late. – Three points
April 1 – Shrewsbury Town (h) – Rovers will be seeking retribution for what was their worst performance of the season in the reverse fixture just before Christmas – but resilient and improving Shrewsbury could nick a point. – One point.
April 8 – AFC Wimbledon (a) – Rovers may have ended their five-month search for an away win at Oxford on Saturday – but this represents a tricky away day and it could end in a pointless endeavour – Nil points
April 14 – Gillingham (a) – Gillingham have won two of their last three games to ease relegation fears. Rovers should be capable of starting the Easter weekend with a point away from home – One point.
April 17 – Oldham Athletic (h) – Oldham have been struggling at the wrong end of the table for most of the season and will find points hard to come by at the Memorial Stadium. – Three points.
April 22 – Peterborough United (a) – Big-spending Peterborough are currently one point behind Rovers and will also be eyeing a late run for the play-offs. They have lost at home six times this season and Rovers could get a point here – One point.
April 30 – Millwall (h) – There is a good chance that this may be a dead rubber if Millwall have already booked a top six place and Rovers are simply playing out the final 90 minutes of the season. Should there be any other scenario it will be a game that is almost impossible to predict – One point.
We can see Rovers collecting another 15 or 16 points to surpass 63 to secure what would be the highest league finish in almost 20 years. They would still be some points short of the 73 or 74 required for a top six finish – but ending the season in the top ten would represent a satisfying campaign in the season after promotion.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 7, 2017 8:56:36 GMT
Well, I don't argue with his logic and it's pretty much as I would have said. I've always said there are 6 better teams than us in this league but this team always amaze me and go and pull out a couple of great results and I start looking up again! The spirit and their ability to pull something out of the bag never fails to surprise me. What a ride they are giving us! Would love BEP and all the other experts to be proved wrong and we go and create history, not that anyone apart from gasheads will give any credit for it. It seems that more or less the achievements of the past two years has gone fairly unnoticed. Whatever UTG!
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Post by nailseagas36 on Mar 7, 2017 9:27:33 GMT
well the evil post need something write about, apart from the love for the brown side of bristol, even if we make the playoffs , i wont give them any credit, can you imagine the clamour for clarke if we get 3 promotions back to back the world and it wife will want to sign him up.
the evil post is loathe to print anything positive about us, as we aren't part of the Bristol Sport's winning franchise, lets hope if we do get promoted then we get an open top bus tour this year ;-)
we are the gas, it our support and those hardy souls who make the away journey in numbers to support the team, its the 10,000 odd fans at each and every home game, its the players , the staff, the board who make rovers what we are, its the untold number of fans who can't make games for what ever reason that listen on the radio or gasplayer.
we are more than supporters, we are gasheads and it way of life, if we manage to sneak a trip to wembley again, it will be 40,000 fans invading wembley again life we did in the play off final.
i will sell my daughters and wife for a ticket if i have too :-) ( in actual fact, i will give the wife away for free lol)
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GasMacc1
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 7, 2017 10:13:25 GMT
In the sixteen seasons, starting 2000-01, the team finishing in sixth place in League One has amassed an average of just over 74 points. I wanted to find out how many points teams had reached after 35 matches, to get a rough idea of whether a high total after 35 games predicts a high total at the end of the season. And also to see how League One in 2016-17 looks in comparison. On average, the team in sixth place after 35 games has just over 56 points to their name. Currently, Millwall are in sixth place, with 58 points after 35 games. You needed 76, 76 and 80 points to sneak into the play-offs in three of the seasons in the last ten years. After 35 games, the team sitting in sixth place had got 54, 57 and as many as 63 points in those seasons (2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10). The other two seasons when an "above-average" total was required to secure a play-off place were 2001-02 and 2002-03. The teams in sixth-place after 35 games had achieved correspondingly high figures of 59 and 57 points in those seasons. In 2014-15, Chesterfield finished sixth in League One on only 69 points. After 35 games, Doncaster Rovers, the team in sixth place at that stage, had garnered only 50 points. The table below shows all the data from the past sixteen seasons. I think it suggests that 2016-17 is shaping up to be close to the average! Season | 6th place after 35 games | Points after 35 games | 6th place end season | Points end season | 2000-01 | Stoke City | 58 | Wigan Athletic | 75 | 2001-02 | Huddersfield Town | 59 | Huddersfield Town | 78 | 2002-03 | QPR | 57 | Cardiff | 81 | 2003-04 | Luton Town | 56 | Hartlepool | 73 | 2004-05 | Bournemouth | 57 | Hartlepool | 71 | 2005-06 | Colchester United | 59 | Swansea | 71 | 2006-07 | Tranmere Rovers | 53 | Oldham | 75 | 2007-08 | Southend | 54 | Southend | 76 | 2008-09 | Sc..sc..The Iron | 57 | Sc..sc..The Iron | 76 | 2009-10 | Swindon | 63 | Huddersfield Town | 80 | 2010-11 | MK Dons | 55 | Bournemouth | 71 | 2011-12 | Notts County | 53 | Stevenage | 73 | 2012-13 | Yeovil | 58 | Swindon | 74 | 2013-14 | Peterborough | 55 | Peterborough | 74 | 2014-15 | Doncaster | 50 | Chesterfield | 69 | 2015-16 | Barnsley | 55 | Barnsley | 74 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 12:32:21 GMT
So history tells us it will be a high total this year, and we are below par for where we need to be.
To be fair, that's how it feels too. I'd be delighted with a top 10 finish though.
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 7, 2017 12:54:24 GMT
I'd also be pleased with a top-ten finish, so that we can state, factually, that we've made progress from where we were in our last sojourn in the third tier, when 11th was our best final placing (in both 2009 and 2010).
I've just come back from picking up my train tickets for Peterborough (A). I'd love it if we were able to approach that game still harbouring at least a mathematical chance of the play-offs.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 7, 2017 14:00:13 GMT
Thanks GasMacc for the info, interesting to read and compare. We're just going to be a bit short of the points total needed I think. But its going to be an interesting last part of the season for us. UTG!
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Igitur
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Post by Igitur on Mar 7, 2017 16:08:37 GMT
The pirate ship was spoilt for a ha’porth of tar, a new keeper and a reasonable striker.
But to me the powers that be had a target of a mid-table finish, however circumstances find us in a position where there's a chance of a PO spot, hence the talk.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 16:47:38 GMT
I have never thought we could achieve a third successive promotion. After two sucessive promotions, fifth bottom is far from easy. But we're in the top ten, and well might we remain. I just want us to remain and finish in the top ten. But also for us to retain a chance of top six until the final game. This would keep the season alive, and maintain >10,000 attendances. And, just maybe, I could be proven a fool on the glorious final day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 19:36:12 GMT
As another snapshot of progress, I just caught myself thinking 'that's quite an easy run-in'. This, in a division we couldn't get anywhere near for years (and weren't seriously expecting to be in just 12 months ago).
I'll still expect and be well chuffed with top 10, though. Then have us point DC at the transfer market over the summer with his lessons learned folder to hand.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 20:04:10 GMT
I honestly think that even mid table is a fantastic result, even better if all the other teams that came up are behind us. I know OUFC have games in hand but I think we will stay above them. It is also good to see that we are looking at next season as well, getting Chris to sign on for at least another season is a good bit of business. I know it is a long shot but hopefully we can keep Lumley and Sweeny even if it is for a season loan.
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kingswood Polak
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Post by kingswood Polak on Mar 7, 2017 20:22:30 GMT
I honestly think that even mid table is a fantastic result, even better if all the other teams that came up are behind us. I know OUFC have games in hand but I think we will stay above them. It is also good to see that we are looking at next season as well, getting Chris to sign on for at least another season is a good bit of business. I know it is a long shot but hopefully we can keep Lumley and Sweeny even if it is for a season loan. Oxford have a small squad too and at this time of the season the fitness levels do show dividends & I think this is probably the most physically fit team I've seen pull on the quarters. I spent a little more time on the OUFC site and to hear them call us a physical team made me view things a little differently. We certainly have a squad that is strong come the end of season
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irishrover
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Post by irishrover on Mar 7, 2017 20:32:58 GMT
Logically our chances of making a run at the playoffs are slim at best - but I can't help thinking that we have gone on very similar runs the last 2 seasons. So it seems unrealistic, especially with a misfiring forward line but somehow I can't help partially believing that it's possible.
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Igitur
Joined: June 2014
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Post by Igitur on Mar 7, 2017 21:49:58 GMT
Dropped a place tonight to 9th as the teams with games in hand begin to play those extra games. Rochdale for example have 3 games in hand and are only 2 points behind us.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 22:00:12 GMT
I honestly think that even mid table is a fantastic result, even better if all the other teams that came up are behind us. I know OUFC have games in hand but I think we will stay above them. It is also good to see that we are looking at next season as well, getting Chris to sign on for at least another season is a good bit of business. I know it is a long shot but hopefully we can keep Lumley and Sweeny even if it is for a season loan. Oxford have a small squad too and at this time of the season the fitness levels do show dividends & I think this is probably the most physically fit team I've seen pull on the quarters. I spent a little more time on the OUFC site and to hear them call us a physical team made me view things a little differently. We certainly have a squad that is strong come the end of season Honestly think we have no worries about OUFC. Their manager may be the new manager south of the river in the summer if Kassam does not sell the stadium to the club and continues to block the 4th stand.
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warehamgas
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Post by warehamgas on Mar 8, 2017 10:05:01 GMT
I honestly think that even mid table is a fantastic result, even better if all the other teams that came up are behind us. I know OUFC have games in hand but I think we will stay above them. It is also good to see that we are looking at next season as well, getting Chris to sign on for at least another season is a good bit of business. I know it is a long shot but hopefully we can keep Lumley and Sweeny even if it is for a season loan. Oxford have a small squad too and at this time of the season the fitness levels do show dividends & I think this is probably the most physically fit team I've seen pull on the quarters. I spent a little more time on the OUFC site and to hear them call us a physical team made me view things a little differently. We certainly have a squad that is strong come the end of season Yes, agree KP. I've just looked at their forum as well and they were a bit obsessed with us being a big, strong, physical side weren't they? Don't think they gave us enough credit for playing well and winning but wouldn't really expect them to. Unusual for us but tbf we've become much stronger over the last two years. In matches our record of coming from behind in the last 15 minutes to win was good early in the season and as the season goes on we get stronger and stronger. A good end to this season, a few to strengthen and really challenge for play-offs next year. Good times. UTG!
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Post by DudeLebowski on Mar 8, 2017 10:32:04 GMT
I stopped reading after 'Bury - Nil Points'.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2017 10:38:00 GMT
A front six of James, Moore, Bodin, Lines, Sinclair and O. Clarke strikes me as not particularly big or strong by professional football standards.
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Post by DudeLebowski on Mar 8, 2017 12:15:55 GMT
A front six of James, Moore, Bodin, Lines, Sinclair and O. Clarke strikes me as not particularly big or strong by professional football standards. Strong in quality no doubt. The last thing I'd ever call this current bunch is physical, that just isn't our game. Not sure what the bitter Oxford lemons are on about?!
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