GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423 
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 11:19:11 GMT
Fixture Schedule Alone Could Give Rovers A Seven Point Advantage
Darrell Clarke has agreed with many commentators that the top half of League Two is tightly bunched, and any of the clubs down to the current 11th place could realistically finish in the play-offs. I wondered how many of those top 11 still have to play each other, and - since in such matches at least one of the clubs must drop points - what effect that might have on the final placings. Let’s take Northampton out of the reckoning. Even if they showed relegation form to the end of the season, they would finish on 87 points which should be more than enough to get automatic promotion. So I’ve considered the fixtures of the current ten top teams in League Two (excluding Northampton). Let’s call them the T10 teams. I’ve considered various scenarios, and I’ll provide a more detailed discussion in a separate post, but my conclusions are that, solely by the inevitable dropping of points in matches between T10 teams: - in normal and fair scenarios, Rovers could finish fifth (one place higher than at present) and between two and three points clear of the eighth placed club
- if all T10 teams dominate games against the other fourteen teams, Rovers could finish fifth and between three and seven points clear of the eighth placed club
- if T10 teams choke against the other fourteen teams, and (especially if there are few draws in inter-T10 games), the effect could be that Rovers finish 7th or even miss out on the play-offs.
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
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Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 11:19:27 GMT
FixturesRovers have the fewest games (3) against T10 teams: Wimbledon (H); Mansfield (H) and Carlisle (A). Wycombe have the most (7): three at home, four away. All of the other T10 teams have five games, except for Portsmouth and Wimbledon, each with six. MethodFirst, I should point out that this is not an attempt to predict results! I’m merely trying to gauge the influence on the range of possible outcomes of the fact that matches between T10 teams must result in dropped points…and, knowing Rovers have fewer such matches to play, to what extent Rovers could benefit from that fact. Clearly, a superior run of form between now and the end of the season will stand any club in good stead…but this analysis is going to assume that each club shows the same form as each other. By taking form out of the reckoning, we can see what effect the inter-T10 matches in isolation might have. So… I’m going to explore extreme outcomes of: - games between T10 teams, and
- games between a T10 team and any of the other 14 teams in League Two.
Consider a match between any T10 teams. The lowest total of points gained by those two teams is two - from a draw. So Extreme Scenario A is when ALL inter-T10 games end in a draw and each team gets just one point per inter-T10 game. The highest total is three - if one teams wins. So the highest total of points gained by those two teams is three (one gets three, the other gets none). But, since I’m taking form out of the equation, let’s assume that the T10 teams all achieve one and a half points per game on average, achievable by winning one and losing one. So Extreme Scenario B is when the T10 teams get 1.5 points per inter-T10 game. Now consider games between a T10 team and any of the other 14 teams in League Two. The extreme here - Extreme Scenario C - is that all such games end in a win - and three points - for the T10 team. The final Extreme Scenario D is that all such games end in a draw. Why not a defeat? Because that would cause non-T10 teams to overtake the T10 teams…and would mess up this analysis! Let’s also consider some interim scenarios: that the inter-T10 teams gain an average of 1.33 points per game (as they would get from W-D-L sequences); and that T10 teams tend to get a healthy, but not unrealistic 1.75 points per game against the non-T10 teams they have still to play. In summary (and giving the scenarios names): | Scenario | Name | Definition | | A | STIFLE | All inter-T10 matches end in a draw | | Interim 1 | FAIR | Each T10 team gets an average 1.33 points per inter-T10 game | | B | COLLUDE | Each T10 team gets an average 1.5 points per inter-T10 game | | C | DOMINATE | T10 teams win every game against non-T10 teams. | | Interim 2 | NORMAL | T10 teams average 1.75 points in games against non-T10 teams. | | D | CHOKE | T10 teams draw every game against non-T10 teams. |
The following table shows, for each scenario, whether Rovers would finish in the play-offs and by how many points clear of the 8th place team | COLLUDE 1.5 ppg v T10 | 8th (0 clear) | 5th (2 clear) | 5th (3 clear) | | FAIR 1.33 ppg v T10 | 7th (0 clear) | 5th (2 clear) | 5th (6 clear) | | STIFLE 1 ppg v T10 | 6th (1 clear) | 5th (3 clear) | 5th (7 clear) | | CHOKE 1 ppg v non-T10 | NORM 1.75 ppg v non-T10 | DOMINATE 3 ppg v non-T10 |
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Igitur
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 2,294
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Post by Igitur on Mar 4, 2016 11:26:36 GMT
I'm with you so far, but the tables are not showing.
What about a team 10-15 place have a late run?
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 11:34:34 GMT
I'm with you so far, but the tables are not showing. What about a team 10-15 place have a late run? Tables edited in now. I invite other posters to consider the late run scenario!  |
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Post by tanksfull on Mar 4, 2016 12:08:52 GMT
Whilst I understand that Northampton are likely to be promoted you cannot exclude them from your equations as some of the T10 teams will have to play them and some won't.
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Post by bttrsblue on Mar 4, 2016 12:13:14 GMT
Some great work there, all theoretical though, but impressive done the less.
I think the observation on inter T10 games is valid - ie the more inter T10 games teams have the better for us.
Also, how have you dealt with games vs Northampton? As the are neither T10 as stated, but surely shouldnt be part of the remaining 14?
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syg
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 1,011
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Post by syg on Mar 4, 2016 12:14:41 GMT
What do you do for fun? |
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pepsi
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 72
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Post by pepsi on Mar 4, 2016 12:18:34 GMT
I was looking at it similarly myself, looking at who's playing who. But did include Northampton as they will take points off most..
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Post by bttrsblue on Mar 4, 2016 12:24:03 GMT
I was looking at it similarly myself, looking at who's playing who. But did include Northampton as they will take points off most.. Including us!  |
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pepsi
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 72
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Post by pepsi on Mar 4, 2016 12:27:40 GMT
I was looking at it similarly myself, looking at who's playing who. But did include Northampton as they will take points off most.. Including us! Oh yeah .. And away.. :-( |
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Rex
Predictions League
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 3,287
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Post by Rex on Mar 4, 2016 12:33:22 GMT
Pubs, clubs even your local library, are all places you could get out more and meet people. Still quite impressive though |
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 13:14:41 GMT
Whilst I understand that Northampton are likely to be promoted you cannot exclude them from your equations as some of the T10 teams will have to play them and some won't. Yes, you're challenging the assumption that T10 teams would get the same average points haul in games against non-T10 teams, whether or not those games were against Northampton. In fact, Northampton have to play four of the T10 teams: Carlisle (A, tomorrow), Mansfield (A), Rovers (at Sixfields) and Portsmouth (A). If we assume that Northampton are all-powerful and would win all four of those games, the effect (the Cobblers' effect) on the outcomes would be: | COLLUDE | 9th (2 off) | 5th (0 clear) | 5th (3 clear) | | FAIR | 9th (2 off) | 5th (1 clear) | 5th (3 clear) | | STIFLE | 6th (0 clear) | 5th (2 clear) | 5th (4 clear) | | CHOKE | NORM | DOMINATE |
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 13:16:55 GMT
What do you do for fun? Here in Macclesfield, there's 3 inches of snow on the ground, and it's still snowing. I'm hoping I can still get over the Peak District to Nottingham tomorrow... |
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GasMacc1
Les Bradd
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 1,423
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Post by GasMacc1 on Mar 4, 2016 13:17:25 GMT
Pubs, clubs even your local library, are all places you could get out more and meet people. Still quite impressive though I refer you to my answer to syg! |
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eppinggas
Administrator
Ian Alexander
Don't care
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 8,225
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Post by eppinggas on Mar 4, 2016 13:22:40 GMT
Great work! Didn't realise how relatively 'easy' our run in is. It's all positive following the Gas at the moment. I've never typed those word before.
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Post by didlesknowmydad on Mar 4, 2016 13:29:25 GMT
My head is spinning now.
Thank goodness football isn't so predictable!
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irishrover
Global Moderator
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 3,372
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Post by irishrover on Mar 4, 2016 16:55:35 GMT
Some quality statistical analysis on the forum - well done sir!
A cursory look at our fixture list suggested to me that it's hard to see anyone else having an easier run in. That's kind of what this analysis suggests. It's interesting that in your scenario we would struggle to make the playoffs if T10 teams were to do poorly against the rest on block. I assume that is because we are a T10 team and we have a disproportionate number of games remaining against those sides, therefore in that scenario we would do worst proportionally than other T10 teams who had fewer games v the rest. Good news for us is that is probably the least realistic of your assumptions.
If you wanted to be a bit more fancy/are completely bored you could replace your ideal assumptions with known priors. Re; we already know how T10 teams are doing against bottom 14 sides - we can figure out what the average points per game is in those matchups and extrapolate to the rest of the season. You could even be really fancy and control for how sides do home vs away. Then you are calculating based on known properties rather than ideal theoretical scenarios. Of coruse if you were being really, really fancy, you could move from fixed effects (assuming all your observations will behave equally) to random effects (allowing the effect of each observation to vary) and work that out for each club. You'd say goodbye to your weekend but you could feel justifiably smug doing it and I'm pretty sure it would be good news for Rovers. My god - I've managed to get the language of Bayesian statistics and multi-level modelling onto a Bristol Rovers fans forum!
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Rex
Predictions League
Joined: June 2014
Posts: 3,287
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Post by Rex on Mar 4, 2016 17:04:32 GMT
The beauty of football is that no matter how predictable a game seems to be, it isn't really that predictable at all. Who would have guessed after Leicester's draw with West Brom on Tuesday, that it would turn out to be a point gained rather than two lost?
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Bridgeman
Alfie Biggs
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 3,549
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Post by Bridgeman on Mar 4, 2016 20:45:19 GMT
Your other name isn't Richertford is it ? It's a great analysis and far in advance of guessing the match attendance and as for Irishrover, you're just showing off now  |
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old_fogey
David Williams
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 18
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Post by old_fogey on Mar 5, 2016 14:14:38 GMT
Some quality statistical analysis on the forum - well done sir! A cursory look at our fixture list suggested to me that it's hard to see anyone else having an easier run in. That's kind of what this analysis suggests. It's interesting that in your scenario we would struggle to make the playoffs if T10 teams were to do poorly against the rest on block. I assume that is because we are a T10 team and we have a disproportionate number of games remaining against those sides, therefore in that scenario we would do worst proportionally than other T10 teams who had fewer games v the rest. Good news for us is that is probably the least realistic of your assumptions. If you wanted to be a bit more fancy/are completely bored you could replace your ideal assumptions with known priors. Re; we already know how T10 teams are doing against bottom 14 sides - we can figure out what the average points per game is in those matchups and extrapolate to the rest of the season. You could even be really fancy and control for how sides do home vs away. Then you are calculating based on known properties rather than ideal theoretical scenarios. Of coruse if you were being really, really fancy, you could move from fixed effects (assuming all your observations will behave equally) to random effects (allowing the effect of each observation to vary) and work that out for each club. You'd say goodbye to your weekend but you could feel justifiably smug doing it and I'm pretty sure it would be good news for Rovers. My god - I've managed to get the language of Bayesian statistics and multi-level modelling onto a Bristol Rovers fans forum! I don't know about multi-level modelling, but we essentially have 24 non-independent, non-Markovian stochastic processes describing the game by game change in the number of points gained by the clubs in the division (that's racked up the amount of statistical terminology ). Anyone able to come up with a sensible model of this and to run the tens of thousands of simulations necessary to provide insight into our likely finishing position, within a weekend, is more than justified in being smug. Things however, are not so simple . One thing that two seasons ago will have taught us, amongst others, is that GD (and I don't mean our ex-director!) is important. We really need to treat the random variables being modelled as multivariate (well bivariate at least) rather than univariate, and model both points obtained and GD. (amount of stats termnology still increasing ). Anyway, enough of this frivolity! If I were a betting man I would be fairly sure that the outcome of any sensible stochastic modelling based on estimates gained from the current season, would show:- 1. We will almost certainly finish somewhere between 2nd and 12th (incl). 2. We are most likely to finish somewhere between 5th and 9th (incl), probably being in rather than out of playoffs as the more likely - which I think is what GasMacc1 is suggesting.
Of course being more likely doesn't mean it is bound to happen!!
Ah well, time to go and lie down in a darkened room for an hour to prepare myself to be put through the mincer listening to the game on Gas Player. |
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